AI correctly predicted the Zalaegerszegi TE win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Zalaegerszegi TE Zalaegerszegi TE ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalaegerszegi TE | 35.2% | 34.7% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Puskás Akadémia | 35.2% | 36.4% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Zalaegerszegi TE win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Zalaegerszegi TE win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zalaegerszegi TE 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Puskás Akadémia 35.2%
- xG · Zalaegerszegi TE 1.30 — Puskás Akadémia 1.30
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Zalaegerszegi TE 2.75 · Draw 3.30 · Puskás Akadémia 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Zalaegerszegi TE 34.7% · Draw 28.9% · Puskás Akadémia 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zalaegerszegi TE 2.75 · Draw 3.30 · Puskás Akadémia 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Zalaegerszegi TE 34.7% · Draw 28.9% · Puskás Akadémia 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zalaegerszegi TE win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
32/100
Monitoring Confidence
35/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Zalaegerszegi TE win · Zalaegerszegi TE 1–0 Puskás Akadémia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "81c1ba84ef60b1ab01271319819cc339d9003aa89e5290cfbf148f4f8ae601b8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0049,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3469,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.75
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.75,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Zalaegerszegi TE Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.88,
"market_odds": 2.75,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 4.8,
"prob_edge": -1.2,
"value_pct": -3.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Zalaegerszegi TE or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Zalaegerszegi TE or Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Zalaegerszegi TE or Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Zalaegerszegi TE"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -3.2,
"implied_prob": 36.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Zalaegerszegi TE Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 2.75
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.41,
"draw": 28.91,
"home": 34.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:29:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:20:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.69,
"gap_pp": 0.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.91,
"gap_pp": 0.74,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.41,
"gap_pp": -1.23,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.18,
"gap_pp": -6.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.82,
"gap_pp": 6.98,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.3,
"early": 3.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.41,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.82,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.7,
"ev": -0.118,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.085,
"edge": 0.015,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4469,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.5531,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5366
},
"p_final": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0368,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4619
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1744,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.009,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4034,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1744,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4124
},
"p_final": 0.4124,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0329,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.5966,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5842
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0829,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0829,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10074.61,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0401,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0389,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"sort_key": 1790.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"alert_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.24,
"hero_label": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"market_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zalaegerszegi TE at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zalaegerszegi TE as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4166666666666667,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.2,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.24,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.24,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"steam_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zalaegerszegi TE at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zalaegerszegi TE as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zalaegerszegi TE 1.30 xG vs Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia 1.30 \u2192 Zalaegerszegi TE 35.2%",
"Market: Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia ~34.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia odds \u2191 +4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Zalaegerszegi TE with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.48,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"market_prob": 34.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.74,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.24,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"market_prob": 36.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.11,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"market_prob_pct": 36.41,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.24,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Zalaegerszegi TE \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zalaegerszegi TE 1.30 xG vs Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia 1.30 \u2192 Zalaegerszegi TE 35.2%",
"Market: Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia ~34.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia odds \u2191 +4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Zalaegerszegi TE with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.24,
"hero_label": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia odds lengthened \u2191 +4.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia (\u2191 +4.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.24,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.48,
"edge_pp": 0.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"market_prob_pct": 34.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.74,
"edge_pp": 0.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.24,
"edge_pp": -1.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"market_prob_pct": 36.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia (34.7%).",
"Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.4%, 5/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zalaegerszegi TE, Market \u2192 Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia, while Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.17,
"closing_odds": 2.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.17,
"entry_odds": 2.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 85h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia (swing 2.63 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.35) \u2014 net 4.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.62",
"2.44",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.63 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 85h",
"pick_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.63"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.62,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"away_team_id": 2391,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2391.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"away_team_public_id": "1L7ATp2JQCvEhO",
"away_team_slug": "puskas-academy",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1560242,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"home_team_id": 2414,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2414.webp",
"home_team_name": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"home_team_public_id": "3jpS76HmbqYlhO",
"home_team_slug": "zalaegerszegi-te",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "NB I",
"league_id": 271,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/271.webp",
"league_name": "NB I",
"league_public_id": "4nrQdbq97ohWkZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:30:00",
"public_id": "3bgfiPWffNREes",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Zalaegerszeg",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4417,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.3641,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3641,
"draw": 0.2891,
"home": 0.3469
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3586
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2967,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.2891,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3641,
"draw": 0.2891,
"home": 0.3469
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2912
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4467,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3641,
"draw": 0.2891,
"home": 0.3469
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3491
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.0784,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0217,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1744,
"alpha_yes": 0.2398,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0511,
"edge_yes": -0.0511,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1032,
"implied_no": 0.4039,
"implied_yes": 0.5961,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1744,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4124
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.5966,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5842
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.4124,
"p_final_yes": 0.5842,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2322,
"alpha_under": 0.2111,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.685,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.085,
"edge_over": -0.0707,
"edge_under": 0.0707,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0959,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0368,
"implied_over": 0.5527,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5531,
"implied_under": 0.4473,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4469,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.5531,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5366
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4619
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5366,
"p_final_under": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zalaegerszegi TE at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zalaegerszegi TE as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zalaegerszegi TE).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zalaegerszegi TE"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1744,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.4034,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1744,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4124
},
"p_final": 0.4124,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.5966,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5842
}
},
"edge": 0.0511,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.085,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.4469,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.5531,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5366
},
"p_final": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0368,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.4469,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4619
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0707,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4473,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1560242,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pusk\u00e1s Akad\u00e9mia",
"home": "Zalaegerszegi TE"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4473,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3469,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1560242,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:29:07.570562+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Zalaegerszegi TE & Puskás Akadémia!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
NB I — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Győri ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Puskás Akadémia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Vasas SC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Újpest FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvárda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nyíregyháza Spartacus | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas SC | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Újpest FC | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Győri ETO FC | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Paks | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Puskás Akadémia | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Kisvárda FC | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyíregyháza Spartacus | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
