The model missed the final outcome (Jesenice win 5–0).
The model had projected Dren Vrhnika at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Dren Vrhnika Jesenice ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesenice | 31.0% | 37.5% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.0% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Dren Vrhnika | 39.5% | 35.5% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Jesenice's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Jesenice win 5–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Jesenice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Dren Vrhnika; match finished Jesenice
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dren Vrhnika by 6.4 percentage points (45.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Jesenice 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Dren Vrhnika 39.5%
- xG · Jesenice 1.21 — Dren Vrhnika 1.39
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Jesenice 2.40 · Draw 3.33 · Dren Vrhnika 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Jesenice 37.5% · Draw 27.0% · Dren Vrhnika 35.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Jesenice 2.40 · Draw 3.33 · Dren Vrhnika 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Jesenice 37.5% · Draw 27.0% · Dren Vrhnika 35.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Jesenice win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Jesenice win · Jesenice 5–0 Dren Vrhnika
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
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"pick": "No",
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
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"match_winner": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 13:57:01",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 13:32:57",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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"ev_available": true,
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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{
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},
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"text": "+5.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
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"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10045.99,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0585,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0585,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0009,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Dren Vrhnika",
"sort_key": 1785.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"alert_team": "Jesenice",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.43,
"hero_label": "Jesenice",
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"market_team": "Jesenice",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Dren Vrhnika",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dren Vrhnika at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dren Vrhnika as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dren Vrhnika",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0585,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0009,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"steam_team": "Jesenice",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dren Vrhnika at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dren Vrhnika as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dren Vrhnika",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0585,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0009,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Jesenice 1.21 xG vs Dren Vrhnika 1.39 \u2192 Dren Vrhnika 39.5%",
"Market: Jesenice ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Jesenice odds \u2191 +2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dren Vrhnika with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.43,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Jesenice",
"market_prob": 37.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.51,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.92,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Dren Vrhnika",
"market_prob": 35.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.98,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.98,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.87,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Jesenice",
"market_prob_pct": 37.46,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Jesenice"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Jesenice\u0027s win probability at 37.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dren Vrhnika",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Dren Vrhnika \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Jesenice 1.21 xG vs Dren Vrhnika 1.39 \u2192 Dren Vrhnika 39.5%",
"Market: Jesenice ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Jesenice odds \u2191 +2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dren Vrhnika with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.43,
"hero_label": "Jesenice",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Jesenice odds lengthened \u2191 +2.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Jesenice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Jesenice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Jesenice above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Jesenice (\u2191 +2.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Jesenice",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Jesenice higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.43,
"edge_pp": -6.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Jesenice",
"market_prob_pct": 37.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.51,
"edge_pp": 2.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.92,
"edge_pp": 3.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dren Vrhnika",
"market_prob_pct": 35.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Jesenice (35.5%).",
"Jesenice odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.2%, 3/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dren Vrhnika, Market \u2192 Jesenice, while Jesenice odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
"closing_odds": 2.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.67,
"entry_odds": 2.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Jesenice (swing 2.45 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.35) \u2014 net 2.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.35",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Jesenice",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.4,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Jesenice",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Jesenice",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Jesenice",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Jesenice",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dren-vrhnika",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dren Vrhnika",
"away_team_id": 20127,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20127.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dren Vrhnika",
"away_team_public_id": "1EJi4fbZQhbJaN",
"away_team_slug": "dren-vrhnika",
"country_code": "SI",
"country_display_name": "Slovenia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/si.svg",
"country_id": 141,
"country_name": "Slovenia",
"fixture_id": 1558946,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovenia",
"home_team_display_name": "Jesenice",
"home_team_id": 19244,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19244.webp",
"home_team_name": "Jesenice",
"home_team_public_id": "4ZPdzN5hW3gxJk",
"home_team_slug": "jesenice",
"ht.home_team_slug": "jesenice",
"league_country": "Slovenia",
"league_country_display": "Slovenia",
"league_display_name": "2. SNL",
"league_id": 374,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/374.webp",
"league_name": "2. SNL",
"league_public_id": "2pdIXWMnuaROBJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0QVxLogcohqK74",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4233,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3554,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.3746
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3721
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2889,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.27,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3554,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.3746
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2771
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0261,
"ev": -0.1637,
"implied_prob": 0.3746,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3554,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.3746
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3485
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0185,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.1064,
"ev": -0.2553,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1662,
"alpha_yes": 0.2285,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0487,
"edge_yes": -0.0487,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0511,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0719,
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1088,
"implied_no": 0.4083,
"implied_yes": 0.5917,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4143,
"p_final_yes": 0.5825,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2203,
"alpha_under": 0.2003,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0698,
"edge_under": 0.0698,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1105,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5518,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5553,
"implied_under": 0.4482,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4447,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5391,
"p_final_under": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dren Vrhnika)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dren Vrhnika at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dren Vrhnika as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dren Vrhnika",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 6.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0585,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0009,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Dren Vrhnika"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.4058,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"p_final": 0.4143,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0719,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"edge": 0.0487,
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4083,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"p_final": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0698,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4482,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1558946,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dren Vrhnika",
"home": "Jesenice"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4482,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0585,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0009,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1558946,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:57:03.123739+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Jesenice & Dren Vrhnika!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
2. SNL — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Triglav | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Beltinci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Ilirija | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Jesenice | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Dren Vrhnika | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Rudar | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Bilje | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Dekani | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slovan Ljubljana | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Primorje | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Krka | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Krško | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Dravinja | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Brežice | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Rudar | 7 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 | Triglav | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 16 |
| 5 | Bilje | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Ilirija | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Jesenice | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Dren Vrhnika | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Bistrica | 8 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Primorje | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Krka | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Slovan Ljubljana | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Brežice | 7 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 1 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Dekani | 8 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 16 | Krško | 7 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 |
