AI correctly predicted the Nieciecza win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
B-
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Nieciecza Nieciecza ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieciecza | 39.5% | 48.7% | -9.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.3% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Odra Opole | 31.0% | 26.0% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Nieciecza's win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Nieciecza win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Nieciecza. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Nieciecza higher (48.8% vs model 39.5%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Nieciecza win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nieciecza 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Odra Opole 31.0%
- xG · Nieciecza 1.39 — Odra Opole 1.21
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nieciecza 1.95 · Draw 3.76 · Odra Opole 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Nieciecza 48.7% · Draw 25.3% · Odra Opole 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nieciecza 1.95 · Draw 3.76 · Odra Opole 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Nieciecza 48.7% · Draw 25.3% · Odra Opole 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nieciecza win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
53/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Nieciecza win · Nieciecza 1–0 Odra Opole
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3c481f0699abef065e0ca53ca74131a3608fc9eedba0f8b5d9232ac79a62b5eb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3103,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3946,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Odra Opole",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Odra Opole"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Nieciecza",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0922,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Nieciecza Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.05,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 5.3,
"prob_edge": -11.8,
"value_pct": -22.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Nieciecza or Draw",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Nieciecza or Odra Opole",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Odra Opole",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Nieciecza or Odra Opole",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Nieciecza"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.2,
"implied_prob": 27.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Odra Opole Win",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Odra Opole",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.02,
"draw": 25.26,
"home": 48.71
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:29:20",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:05:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Nieciecza",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.71,
"gap_pp": -9.22,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.26,
"gap_pp": 4.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.02,
"gap_pp": 5.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.82,
"gap_pp": -3.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.18,
"gap_pp": 3.62,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.76,
"early": 3.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.65,
"early": 3.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.82,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.18,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"p_final": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0106,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4925
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0308,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.1,
"text": "+3.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0308,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10027.72,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.143,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.3,
"text": "-14.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0006,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2299,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Nieciecza",
"sort_key": 5200.48,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": -0.002,
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"market_prob": 0.5511,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0018,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"p_final": 0.5491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0932,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.083,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5491
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0632,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.3,
"text": "-6.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0606,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0606,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1784.85,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "Nieciecza",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.25,
"hero_label": "Nieciecza",
"market_prob_pct": 48.7,
"market_team": "Nieciecza",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Nieciecza",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nieciecza at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nieciecza as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nieciecza",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Nieciecza \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558228 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.143,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2299,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.25,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.25,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "Nieciecza",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nieciecza at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nieciecza as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nieciecza",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Nieciecza \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558228 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.143,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2299,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nieciecza 1.39 xG vs Odra Opole 1.21 \u2192 Nieciecza 39.5%",
"Market: Nieciecza ~48.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Nieciecza odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nieciecza, but the market has moved away from Nieciecza.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.25,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Nieciecza",
"market_prob": 48.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.25,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Odra Opole",
"market_prob": 26.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.35,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.35,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Nieciecza",
"market_prob_pct": 48.71,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Nieciecza"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Nieciecza\u0027s win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.25,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nieciecza",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nieciecza 1.39 xG vs Odra Opole 1.21 \u2192 Nieciecza 39.5%",
"Market: Nieciecza ~48.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Nieciecza odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nieciecza, but the market has moved away from Nieciecza.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.25,
"hero_label": "Nieciecza",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Nieciecza odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Nieciecza. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Nieciecza. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Nieciecza above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Nieciecza (\u2191 +3.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.25,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Nieciecza",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Nieciecza higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.25,
"edge_pp": -9.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nieciecza",
"market_prob_pct": 48.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.25,
"edge_pp": 4.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.01,
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Odra Opole",
"market_prob_pct": 26.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nieciecza (48.7%).",
"Nieciecza odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nieciecza, Market \u2192 Nieciecza, while Nieciecza odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 79h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Nieciecza (swing 2.09 \u2192 1.85 \u2192 1.91) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.95",
"1.90",
"1.85"
],
"display": "2.09 \u2192 1.85 \u2192 1.91",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 79h 40m",
"pick_team": "Nieciecza",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.09"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.91"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.85,
1.95,
1.91
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.91"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.85,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Nieciecza",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.91,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"summary": "Market moved away from Nieciecza while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Nieciecza",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "Nieciecza",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Nieciecza",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "odra-opole",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Odra Opole",
"away_team_id": 3488,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3488.webp",
"away_team_name": "Odra Opole",
"away_team_public_id": "0qtrJUfUrf7Kv1",
"away_team_slug": "odra-opole",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1558228,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Nieciecza",
"home_team_id": 3487,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3487.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nieciecza",
"home_team_public_id": "2wTz42vKAq5IQl",
"home_team_slug": "nieciecza",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nieciecza",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "I liga",
"league_id": 107,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/107.webp",
"league_name": "I liga",
"league_public_id": "4a8f20QylrG2xa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:30:00",
"public_id": "1D6IzN6LQTPmRN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nieciecza",
"venue_name": "Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2775,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.2602,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2602,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4871
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2741
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.281,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0056,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2602,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4871
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2645
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.517,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0477,
"ev": -0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2602,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4871
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4395
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0363,
"ev": 0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": 0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1179,
"ev": -0.2299,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2223,
"alpha_yes": 0.2445,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0035,
"edge_yes": -0.0035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0632,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.076,
"ev_yes": -0.0606,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.083,
"implied_no": 0.4535,
"implied_yes": 0.5465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0018,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5491
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4507,
"p_final_yes": 0.5491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2246,
"alpha_under": 0.2246,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.99,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0317,
"edge_under": 0.0317,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0866,
"ev_under": 0.0308,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"implied_over": 0.5137,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5148,
"implied_under": 0.4863,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4852,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4925
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5075,
"p_final_under": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1326,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0308,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nieciecza at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nieciecza as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nieciecza",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Nieciecza \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +13% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558228 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +13% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nieciecza, but the model still strongly favours Nieciecza.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.143,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2299,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0308,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4863,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0477,
"ev": -0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Nieciecza"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": -0.002,
"market_prob": 0.5511,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0018,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4507
},
"p_final": 0.5491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.083,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2445,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5491
}
},
"edge": -0.0035,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"p_final": 0.4925,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4925
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.4863,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1558228,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0308,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Odra Opole",
"home": "Nieciecza"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.143,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2299,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1558228,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:29:22.291068+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Nieciecza & Odra Opole!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
I liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Nieciecza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Miedź Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Lechia Gdańsk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 9 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 2 | Lechia Gdańsk | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 3 | Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 9 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 9 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 | Miedź Legnica | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Nieciecza | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Polonia Bytom | 9 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | ŁKS Łódź | 9 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Podbeskidzie | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 9 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Unia Skierniewice | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Pogoń Siedlce | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 16 | Ruch Chorzów | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 17 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Odra Opole | 9 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
