The model missed the final outcome (Urawa Red Diamonds win 2–3).
The model had projected Avispa Fukuoka at 54.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Avispa Fukuoka Urawa Red Diamonds ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 54.3% | 39.8% | +14.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 27.4% | 28.9% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 18.3% | 31.3% | -13.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Avispa Fukuoka's win probability at 54.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 39.8%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Urawa Red Diamonds win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Avispa Fukuoka.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.54) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Avispa Fukuoka by 14.5 percentage points (39.8% vs model 54.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Avispa Fukuoka 54.3% · Draw 27.3% · Urawa Red Diamonds 18.4%
- xG · Avispa Fukuoka 1.66 — Urawa Red Diamonds 0.88
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Avispa Fukuoka 2.43 · Draw 3.35 · Urawa Red Diamonds 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Avispa Fukuoka 39.8% · Draw 28.9% · Urawa Red Diamonds 31.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Avispa Fukuoka 2.43 · Draw 3.35 · Urawa Red Diamonds 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Avispa Fukuoka 39.8% · Draw 28.9% · Urawa Red Diamonds 31.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Urawa Red Diamonds win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
27/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.43
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Urawa Red Diamonds win · Avispa Fukuoka 2–3 Urawa Red Diamonds
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "52066619ccaa59d4cfd5f2d7af50e4d56282c9fd8b87af155b79f6310fc20827",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.88,
"away_win_prob": 0.1834,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.511,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.489,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2736,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.45,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.66,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.66,
"home_win_prob": 0.543,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.466,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.534
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Avispa Fukuoka or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Avispa Fukuoka",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Avispa Fukuoka"
},
"away_xg": 0.88,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"confidence": 54.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Avispa Fukuoka",
"edge": 0.1453,
"edge_gap": 0.2702,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3981,
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.3,
"draw": 27.3,
"home": 54.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Avispa Fukuoka"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.43
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Avispa Fukuoka Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
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"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 13.2,
"value_pct": 32.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 58.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 81.0,
"no_prob": 51.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 48.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.88,
"home_expected": 1.66,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Avispa Fukuoka or Draw",
"prob": 81.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Avispa Fukuoka or Urawa Red Diamonds",
"prob": 72.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Urawa Red Diamonds",
"prob": 45.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Avispa Fukuoka or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.3,
"draw_pct": 27.4,
"home_pct": 54.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Avispa Fukuoka"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.54,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 46.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.54,
"under_prob": 53.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.1,
"implied_prob": 41.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Avispa Fukuoka Win",
"model_prob": 54.3,
"odds": 2.43
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.31,
"draw": 28.88,
"home": 39.81
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-02 09:59:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-02 09:29:30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.81,
"gap_pp": 14.53,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 54.34
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.88,
"gap_pp": -1.56,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.31,
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"model_pct": 18.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.76,
"gap_pp": 1.84,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 46.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.24,
"gap_pp": -1.84,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 53.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
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"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.81,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.35,
"early": 3.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.88,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.09,
"early": 3.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.31,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.31,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.76,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.2,
"ev": -0.083,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.131,
"model_prob_pct": 13.1,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 13.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.66,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.5,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Avispa Fukuoka",
"edge": 14.3,
"ev": 35.9,
"probability": 54.3
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0917,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0917,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"sort_key": 10232.53,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 46.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 53.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 51.1,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 13.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.49,
"hero_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"market_team": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"model_prob_pct": 54.3,
"model_team": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3204,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avispa Fukuoka at 54.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avispa Fukuoka as the value side (54.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Avispa Fukuoka \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.43 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556041 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.43 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.78"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.78
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "8/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.49,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.88,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.66,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.66,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.66 \u00b7 Away xG 0.88 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +23%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3204,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avispa Fukuoka at 54.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avispa Fukuoka as the value side (54.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Avispa Fukuoka \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.43 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556041 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.43 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.78"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.78
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Avispa Fukuoka 1.66 xG vs Urawa Red Diamonds 0.88 \u2192 Avispa Fukuoka 54.3%",
"Market: Avispa Fukuoka ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Avispa Fukuoka projects stronger on expected goals (+0.78 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"market_prob": 39.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.52,
"fair_prob": 27.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.97,
"fair_prob": 18.34,
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob": 31.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.3,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.81,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Avispa Fukuoka\u0027s win probability at 54.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 39.8%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 54.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Avispa Fukuoka \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Avispa Fukuoka 1.66 xG vs Urawa Red Diamonds 0.88 \u2192 Avispa Fukuoka 54.3%",
"Market: Avispa Fukuoka ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Avispa Fukuoka projects stronger on expected goals (+0.78 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.49,
"hero_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Avispa Fukuoka.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Avispa Fukuoka.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Avispa Fukuoka more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 26.9 pp (at 54.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 26.9,
"max_prob_pct": 54.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.5,
"lead": "The model rates Avispa Fukuoka considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.49,
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.3,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.81,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.52,
"edge_pp": -1.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.97,
"edge_pp": -12.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob_pct": 31.31,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Avispa Fukuoka (39.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.9%, 8/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Avispa Fukuoka \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.15,
"closing_odds": 2.43,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.15,
"entry_odds": 2.43,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (6.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.35",
"3.12",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.35 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 41h 31m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.35,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/12 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"away_team_id": 287,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/287.webp",
"away_team_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"away_team_public_id": "1Ppsz4BpZqXORz",
"away_team_slug": "urawa",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1556041,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"home_team_id": 316,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/316.webp",
"home_team_name": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"home_team_public_id": "5oGOSCCiufT8h2",
"home_team_slug": "avispa-fukuoka",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J1 League",
"league_id": 98,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/98.webp",
"league_name": "J1 League",
"league_public_id": "2xJTTSjiNCIcFD",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-02 10:00:00",
"public_id": "2IceGZxOjuH5iV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Fukuoka",
"venue_name": "Best Denki Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2417,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3131,
"draw": 0.2888,
"home": 0.3981
},
"model_prob": 0.1835,
"p_final": 0.2818
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.293,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0479,
"implied_prob": 0.2888,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3131,
"draw": 0.2888,
"home": 0.3981
},
"model_prob": 0.2732,
"p_final": 0.2842
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0511,
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3131,
"draw": 0.2888,
"home": 0.3981
},
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"p_final": 0.4492
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": -0.1402,
"ev": -0.4331,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.1835
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.0849,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2732
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": 0.1319,
"ev": 0.3204,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.5434
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3204,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0917,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3204,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avispa Fukuoka at 54.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avispa Fukuoka as the value side (54.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Avispa Fukuoka \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.43 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556041 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.43 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avispa Fukuoka).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.78"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.78
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.489,
"draw_prob": 0.2732,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5434,
"over_prob": 0.466,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"under_prob": 0.534,
"xg_diff": 0.78
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0511,
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Avispa Fukuoka"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1556041,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0917,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1835,
"draw": 0.2732,
"home": 0.5434
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"home": "Avispa Fukuoka"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04983,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Avispa Fukuoka",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3981,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5434,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4115226337448559,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556041,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-02T09:59:19.281485+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Avispa Fukuoka & Urawa Red Diamonds!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
J1 League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 17 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 19 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 3 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 14 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | +1.4 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | +0.7 | 11 |
| 7 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | +0.5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | +0.3 | 9 |
| 10 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 13 |
| 11 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 4 |
| 12 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 4 |
| 13 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 18 |
| 14 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 15 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 4 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 8 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 19 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | — | — | — | 17 |
| 20 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | — | — | — | 13 |
