The model missed the final outcome (Matsumoto Yamaga win 1–2).
The model had projected Tochigi SC at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Tochigi SC Matsumoto Yamaga ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 39.9% | 38.9% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.0% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 30.6% | 33.1% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Matsumoto Yamaga win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Tochigi SC; match finished Matsumoto Yamaga
Market lesson
The full-time result was Matsumoto Yamaga win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tochigi SC 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Matsumoto Yamaga 30.6%
- xG · Tochigi SC 1.40 — Matsumoto Yamaga 1.20
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tochigi SC 2.36 · Draw 3.27 · Matsumoto Yamaga 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Tochigi SC 38.9% · Draw 28.0% · Matsumoto Yamaga 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tochigi SC 2.36 · Draw 3.27 · Matsumoto Yamaga 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Tochigi SC 38.9% · Draw 28.0% · Matsumoto Yamaga 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Matsumoto Yamaga win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
87/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Matsumoto Yamaga win · Tochigi SC 1–2 Matsumoto Yamaga
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Tochigi SC or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Tochigi SC"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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"edge": 0.0111,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 7,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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"label": "Tochigi SC or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.5
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_label": "Tochigi SC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": -5.6,
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"odds": 2.36
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 28.04,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 07:59:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 07:29:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Tochigi SC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0089,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0081,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5048,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
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},
"p_final": 0.5129,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0208,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0208,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5216.64,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0714,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.1,
"text": "-7.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0693,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Tochigi SC",
"sort_key": 1782.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"alert_team": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.52,
"hero_label": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"market_prob_pct": 38.9,
"market_team": "Tochigi SC",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Tochigi SC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tochigi SC at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tochigi SC as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tochigi SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.52,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"steam_team": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tochigi SC at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tochigi SC as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tochigi SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tochigi SC 1.40 xG vs Matsumoto Yamaga 1.20 \u2192 Tochigi SC 39.9%",
"Market: Tochigi SC ~38.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Matsumoto Yamaga \u2193 -9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tochigi SC, but sharp money moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.09,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Tochigi SC",
"market_prob": 38.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.44,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.52,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"market_prob": 33.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.0,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.0,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.89,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.89,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"market_prob_pct": 33.1,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Matsumoto Yamaga"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tochigi SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tochigi SC 1.40 xG vs Matsumoto Yamaga 1.20 \u2192 Tochigi SC 39.9%",
"Market: Tochigi SC ~38.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Matsumoto Yamaga \u2193 -9.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tochigi SC, but sharp money moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.52,
"hero_label": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Matsumoto Yamaga odds shortened \u2193 -9.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Matsumoto Yamaga.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Matsumoto Yamaga."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Matsumoto Yamaga (\u2193 -9.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Matsumoto Yamaga."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.09,
"edge_pp": 1.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tochigi SC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.85,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.44,
"edge_pp": 1.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.04,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.52,
"edge_pp": -2.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"market_prob_pct": 33.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Matsumoto Yamaga.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tochigi SC (38.9%).",
"However, Matsumoto Yamaga has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.4%, 5/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tochigi SC, Market \u2192 Tochigi SC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Matsumoto Yamaga.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.1,
"closing_odds": 2.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.1,
"entry_odds": 2.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Matsumoto Yamaga (9.4%, 5/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"2.99",
"2.77"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.76 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 12m",
"pick_team": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
2.77,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Matsumoto Yamaga \u2193 -9.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Matsumoto Yamaga \u2193 -9.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "matsumoto-yamaga",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"away_team_id": 304,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/304.webp",
"away_team_name": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"away_team_public_id": "41VAw0Q1Ah9vCV",
"away_team_slug": "matsumoto-yamaga",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1555720,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Tochigi SC",
"home_team_id": 315,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/315.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tochigi SC",
"home_team_public_id": "3EPBmNnhevATvL",
"home_team_slug": "tochigi-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tochigi-sc",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J3 League",
"league_id": 100,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/100.webp",
"league_name": "J3 League",
"league_public_id": "03hQrX5ZjwbmYG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 08:00:00",
"public_id": "4GrEgrFybL4AvR",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Utsunomiya",
"venue_name": "Kanseki Stadium Tochigi"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.331,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.331,
"draw": 0.2804,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.32
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2936,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.2804,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.331,
"draw": 0.2804,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2846
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4425,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.331,
"draw": 0.2804,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3935
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.0554,
"ev": -0.1536,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2121,
"alpha_yes": 0.2121,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.88,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0389,
"edge_yes": 0.0389,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1013,
"ev_yes": 0.0208,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0717,
"implied_no": 0.4959,
"implied_yes": 0.5041,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.4952,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4871
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.5048,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5129
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4871,
"p_final_yes": 0.5129,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2108,
"alpha_under": 0.2319,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.04,
"edge_under": -0.04,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0574,
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0921,
"implied_over": 0.442,
"implied_over_mf": 0.44,
"implied_under": 0.558,
"implied_under_mf": 0.56,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4489
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2319,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5503
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4489,
"p_final_under": 0.5503,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tochigi SC at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tochigi SC as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tochigi SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Matsumoto Yamaga, but the model still strongly favours Tochigi SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tochigi SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0081,
"market_prob": 0.5048,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.4952,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4871
},
"p_final": 0.5129,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0717,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.5048,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5129
}
},
"edge": 0.0389,
"ev": 0.0208,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.44,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4489
},
"p_final": 0.4489,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0574,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2319,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5503
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1555720,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Matsumoto Yamaga",
"home": "Tochigi SC"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555720,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T07:59:49.652298+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Tochigi SC & Matsumoto Yamaga!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
J3 League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Osaka | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Nara Club | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Biwako Shiga | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Kanazawa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | Fukushima United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 17 | Kitakyushu | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 19 | Kochi United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gifu | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 8 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 3 | Nara Club | 8 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Osaka | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 16 |
| 5 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 20 |
| 6 | Fukushima United | 8 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Sagamihara | 8 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Biwako Shiga | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Ryukyu | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 8 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 19 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 8 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 5 |
