AI correctly predicted the Semendrija 1924 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Semendrija 1924 Semendrija 1924 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semendrija 1924 | 37.1% | 37.3% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.7% | +0.9 pp | Aligned |
| FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv | 33.3% | 33.9% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Semendrija 1924 win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Semendrija 1924 win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv 33.4%
- xG · Semendrija 1924 1.34 — FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv 1.26
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Semendrija 1924 2.41 · Draw 3.13 · FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 37.3% · Draw 28.7% · FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv 33.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Semendrija 1924 2.41 · Draw 3.13 · FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 37.3% · Draw 28.7% · FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv 33.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Semendrija 1924 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
79/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
95/100
Betting Confidence
82/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Semendrija 1924 win · Semendrija 1924 2–1 FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
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"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0926,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Semendrija 1924",
"sort_key": 1776.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"alert_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 0.89,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"market_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Semendrija 1924 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Semendrija 1924 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Semendrija 1924",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924).",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3732,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.89,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 0.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"steam_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Semendrija 1924 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Semendrija 1924 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Semendrija 1924",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924).",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3732,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Semendrija 1924 1.34 xG vs FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv 1.26 \u2192 Semendrija 1924 37.1%",
"Market: Semendrija 1924 ~37.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Semendrija 1924 \u2193 -2.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Semendrija 1924 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.26,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Semendrija 1924",
"market_prob": 37.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.89,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.63,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv",
"market_prob": 33.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.05,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 0.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.74,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Semendrija 1924"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Semendrija 1924",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Semendrija 1924 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Semendrija 1924 1.34 xG vs FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv 1.26 \u2192 Semendrija 1924 37.1%",
"Market: Semendrija 1924 ~37.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Semendrija 1924 \u2193 -2.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Semendrija 1924 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 0.89,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Semendrija 1924 odds shortened \u2193 -2.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Semendrija 1924, with odds shortening by 2.0%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Semendrija 1924, with odds shortening by 2.0%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Semendrija 1924 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.0%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 0.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.26,
"edge_pp": -0.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Semendrija 1924",
"market_prob_pct": 37.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.89,
"edge_pp": 0.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.63,
"edge_pp": -0.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv",
"market_prob_pct": 33.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Semendrija 1924 (37.3%).",
"Semendrija 1924 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.0%, 1/7).",
"Semendrija 1924 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.95,
"closing_odds": 3.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.95,
"entry_odds": 3.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Semendrija 1924 (2.0%) \u2014 1/7 books shortening the line.",
"Movement is modest or fragmented \u2014 treat as tracking rather than strong steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.50",
"2.46",
"2.41"
],
"display": "2.55 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.41,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.41"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Semendrija 1924",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Semendrija 1924",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Semendrija 1924",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 0.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fk-spartak-zdrepceva-krv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv",
"away_team_id": 2251,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2251.webp",
"away_team_name": "FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv",
"away_team_public_id": "0s3ZCEvkaKj0Hc",
"away_team_slug": "fk-spartak-zdrepceva-krv",
"country_code": "RS",
"country_display_name": "Serbia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/rs.svg",
"country_id": 138,
"country_name": "Serbia",
"fixture_id": 1554160,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Serbia",
"home_team_display_name": "Semendrija 1924",
"home_team_id": 4254,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4254.webp",
"home_team_name": "Semendrija 1924",
"home_team_public_id": "29bTzSMzAIJHur",
"home_team_slug": "semendrija-1924",
"ht.home_team_slug": "semendrija-1924",
"league_country": "Serbia",
"league_country_display": "Serbia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Prva Liga Serbia",
"league_id": 287,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/287.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Prva Liga Serbia",
"league_public_id": "489C0wPZqIMO2I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1ygnAxZf4aCRBP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Smederevo",
"venue_name": "Stadion FK Smederevo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.446,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.3394,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3394,
"draw": 0.2874,
"home": 0.3732
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3368
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2961,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3394,
"draw": 0.2874,
"home": 0.3732
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2899
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4482,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.3732,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3394,
"draw": 0.2874,
"home": 0.3732
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.372
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0439,
"ev": -0.1163,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0444,
"ev": -0.107,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2197,
"alpha_yes": 0.2417,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0205,
"edge_yes": -0.0205,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.079,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0923,
"implied_no": 0.4345,
"implied_yes": 0.5655,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2197,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4428
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2417,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.5606,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5569
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4428,
"p_final_yes": 0.5569,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2182,
"alpha_under": 0.2182,
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.83,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.845,
"edge_over": -0.0288,
"edge_under": 0.0288,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0842,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0893,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0732,
"implied_over": 0.5108,
"implied_over_mf": 0.502,
"implied_under": 0.4892,
"implied_under_mf": 0.498,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4977
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.498,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5023
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4977,
"p_final_under": 0.5023,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 0.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Semendrija 1924 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Semendrija 1924 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Semendrija 1924",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Semendrija 1924).",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3732,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4892,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.3732,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Semendrija 1924"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2197,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0034,
"market_prob": 0.4394,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2197,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4428
},
"p_final": 0.4428,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.079,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2417,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.5606,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5569
}
},
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4345,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0044,
"market_prob": 0.498,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4977
},
"p_final": 0.5023,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0732,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2182,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.498,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5023
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4892,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1554160,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FK Spartak \u017ddrep\u010deva Krv",
"home": "Semendrija 1924"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1034,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3732,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1071,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1554160,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T14:01:17.993456+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Semendrija 1924 & FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Prva Liga Serbia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Čačak | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| 2 | TSC Bačka Topola | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Semendrija 1924 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Javor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | FK Vozdovac | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Napredak | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Loznica | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | OFK Bor 1919 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Naftagas | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Jedinstvo Ub | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Teleoptik | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javor | 10 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 19 |
| 2 | TSC Bačka Topola | 11 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Borac Čačak | 11 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 25 |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 11 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | OFK Vršac | 11 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Loznica | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | FK Vozdovac | 10 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Jedinstvo Ub | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Grafičar | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 10 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Napredak | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Naftagas | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
