AI correctly predicted the Lech Poznań win.
The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Lech Poznań Lech Poznań ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 5-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań | 67.6% | 70.4% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 20.1% | 17.1% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Radomiak Radom | 12.3% | 12.5% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Lech Poznań win 5–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.26) — 6 goals materialised
- Lech Poznań attacking xG significantly stronger (2.33 vs 0.93)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Lech Poznań win 5–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lech Poznań 67.6% · Draw 20.1% · Radomiak Radom 12.3%
- xG · Lech Poznań 2.33 — Radomiak Radom 0.93
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lech Poznań 1.36 · Draw 5.58 · Radomiak Radom 7.68
- Implied 1X2 · Lech Poznań 70.4% · Draw 17.1% · Radomiak Radom 12.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lech Poznań 1.36 · Draw 5.58 · Radomiak Radom 7.68
- Implied 1X2 · Lech Poznań 70.4% · Draw 17.1% · Radomiak Radom 12.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lech Poznań win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
72/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (73%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
85/100
Betting Confidence
75/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
5.58
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lech Poznań win · Lech Poznań 5–1 Radomiak Radom
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0648,
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"alert_team": "Radomiak Radom",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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"read_min": 4,
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{
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 at 67.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 70.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lech Pozna\u0144 as the value side (67.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0648,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.7038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 72.6,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 73% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.4"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (73%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.92,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.93,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 73.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.33,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.33,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.33 \u00b7 Away xG 0.93 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +73%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"steam_team": "Radomiak Radom",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.115,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1206,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 at 67.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 70.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lech Pozna\u0144 as the value side (67.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0648,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.7038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 72.6,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 73% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.4"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.4
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lech Pozna\u0144 2.33 xG vs Radomiak Radom 0.93 \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144 67.6%",
"Market: Lech Pozna\u0144 ~70.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Radomiak Radom \u2193 -12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lech Pozna\u0144, but sharp money moved toward Radomiak Radom.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.8,
"fair_prob": 67.58,
"label": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"market_prob": 70.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob": 20.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 17.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.11,
"fair_prob": 12.35,
"label": "Radomiak Radom",
"market_prob": 12.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.85,
"fair_prob": 63.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.85,
"fair_prob": 36.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob": 55.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob": 44.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.07,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 17.15,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Radomiak Radom"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 70.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.8,
"model_prob_pct": 67.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lech Pozna\u0144 2.33 xG vs Radomiak Radom 0.93 \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144 67.6%",
"Market: Lech Pozna\u0144 ~70.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Radomiak Radom \u2193 -12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lech Pozna\u0144, but sharp money moved toward Radomiak Radom.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.92,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Radomiak Radom odds shortened \u2193 -12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Radomiak Radom, with odds shortening by 12.5%. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Radomiak Radom \u2014 odds shortened by 12.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Radomiak Radom, with odds shortening by 12.5%. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Radomiak Radom \u2014 odds shortened by 12.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Radomiak Radom has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.5%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.5 pp (at 67.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.5,
"max_prob_pct": 67.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.8,
"edge_pp": -2.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"market_prob_pct": 70.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.92,
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.07,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 17.15,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.11,
"edge_pp": -0.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 12.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Radomiak Radom",
"market_prob_pct": 12.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Radomiak Radom \u2014 odds shortened by 12.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lech Pozna\u0144 (70.4%).",
"However, Radomiak Radom has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.5%, 4/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144, Market \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144, Recent sharp money \u2192 Radomiak Radom.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 17.92,
"closing_odds": 5.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 17.92,
"entry_odds": 5.58,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.5
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 120h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Radomiak Radom (12.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"8.00",
"7.50",
"7.00"
],
"display": "9.00 \u2192 6.38 \u2192 7.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 120h 10m",
"pick_team": "Radomiak Radom",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "9.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "6.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
8.0,
7.68,
7.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,5.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 8.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Radomiak Radom",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"open_odds": 8.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Radomiak Radom while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Radomiak Radom",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 7.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"open_odds": 8.0,
"pick_team": "Radomiak Radom",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Radomiak Radom",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "radomiak-radom",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Radomiak Radom",
"away_team_id": 4248,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4248.webp",
"away_team_name": "Radomiak Radom",
"away_team_public_id": "1q7j35y66I8GXT",
"away_team_slug": "radomiak-radom",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1553176,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"home_team_id": 347,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/347.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"home_team_public_id": "0isrLLjhePM13C",
"home_team_slug": "lech-poznan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lech-poznan",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_public_id": "4NuE63mQgH9Lz4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:15:00",
"public_id": "4A4jNlcwayGGvH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Poznan",
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 7.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.1246,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1246,
"draw": 0.1715,
"home": 0.7038
},
"model_prob": 0.1235,
"p_final": 0.1244
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1912,
"best_odd": 5.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.1715,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1246,
"draw": 0.1715,
"home": 0.7038
},
"model_prob": 0.2008,
"p_final": 0.1771
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5747,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.7038,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1246,
"draw": 0.1715,
"home": 0.7038
},
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"p_final": 0.6877
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.68,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.1302,
"model_prob": 0.1235
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.58,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.1792,
"model_prob": 0.2008
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0596,
"ev": -0.081,
"implied_prob": 0.7353,
"model_prob": 0.6757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4027,
"alpha_yes": 0.5537,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0276,
"edge_yes": -0.0276,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0033,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.055,
"ev_yes": -0.0977,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1034,
"implied_no": 0.4154,
"implied_yes": 0.5846,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4027,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4156,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.4266
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5537,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.5844,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.5692
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4266,
"p_final_yes": 0.5692,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5355,
"alpha_under": 0.3894,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.03,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.345,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.865,
"edge_over": -0.0485,
"edge_under": 0.0485,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1152,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1196,
"ev_under": 0.115,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0306,
"implied_over": 0.6805,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6805,
"implied_under": 0.3195,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3195,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.345,
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.6805,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"p_final": 0.6545
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3894,
"best_odd": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.368,
"p_final": 0.3384
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6545,
"p_final_under": 0.3384,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.115,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1206,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.115,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.115,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1206,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 at 67.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 70.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lech Pozna\u0144 as the value side (67.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lech Pozna\u0144",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Radomiak Radom, but the model still strongly favours Lech Pozna\u0144.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0648,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.7038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 72.6,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 73% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.4"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.557,
"draw_prob": 0.2008,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6757,
"over_prob": 0.632,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"under_prob": 0.368,
"xg_diff": 1.4
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.7038,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lech Pozna\u0144"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4027,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.215,
"edge": 0.011,
"market_prob": 0.4156,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.443,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4027,
"best_odd": 2.215,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4156,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.4266
},
"p_final": 0.4266,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5537,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.5844,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.5692
}
},
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": -0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.4154,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3894,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0189,
"market_prob": 0.3195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.368,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5355,
"best_odd": 1.345,
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.6805,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"p_final": 0.6545
},
"p_final": 0.3384,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0306,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3894,
"best_odd": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.368,
"p_final": 0.3384
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0485,
"ev": 0.115,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.368,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1553176,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.115,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1235,
"draw": 0.2008,
"home": 0.6757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Radomiak Radom",
"home": "Lech Pozna\u0144"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04232,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.115,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.368,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0648,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.7038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553176,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T18:14:06.256955+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Lech Poznań & Radomiak Radom!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ekstraklasa — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | +6.3 | 19 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 10.4 | 7.1 | +3.3 | 8 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 10.0 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 22 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | +0.2 | 15 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 15 |
| 13 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9.6 | 10.8 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 5.4 | 8.7 | -3.3 | 15 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 13 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7.4 | 11.2 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -6.6 | 3 |
