The model missed the final outcome (Korona Kielce win 1–2).
The model had projected Śląsk Wrocław at 43.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Śląsk Wrocław Korona Kielce ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław | 43.9% | 34.0% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 27.9% | 28.1% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Korona Kielce | 28.1% | 37.9% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Śląsk Wrocław's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Korona Kielce win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Śląsk Wrocław.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Śląsk Wrocław; match finished Korona Kielce
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Śląsk Wrocław by 9.9 percentage points (34.0% vs model 43.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Śląsk Wrocław 43.9% · Draw 28.0% · Korona Kielce 28.1%
- xG · Śląsk Wrocław 1.57 — Korona Kielce 1.22
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Śląsk Wrocław 2.83 · Draw 3.43 · Korona Kielce 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Śląsk Wrocław 34.0% · Draw 28.1% · Korona Kielce 37.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Śląsk Wrocław 2.83 · Draw 3.43 · Korona Kielce 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Śląsk Wrocław 34.0% · Draw 28.1% · Korona Kielce 37.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Korona Kielce win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Korona Kielce win · Śląsk Wrocław 1–2 Korona Kielce
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
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"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0431,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"no_prob": 42.7,
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"alert_team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.91,
"hero_label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"market_team": "Korona Kielce",
"model_prob_pct": 43.9,
"model_team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2427,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553169 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2427,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6428571428571429,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.91,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.57,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.57 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"steam_team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2427,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553169 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2427,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw 1.57 xG vs Korona Kielce 1.22 \u2192 \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw 43.9%",
"Market: Korona Kielce ~34.0% implied",
"Market Drift: \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.91,
"fair_prob": 43.93,
"label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"market_prob": 34.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.12,
"fair_prob": 27.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob": 28.11,
"label": "Korona Kielce",
"market_prob": 37.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.73,
"fair_prob": 52.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob": 47.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.28,
"fair_prob": 57.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.28,
"fair_prob": 42.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.93,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.02,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw\u0027s win probability at 43.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.9,
"model_prob_pct": 43.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw 1.57 xG vs Korona Kielce 1.22 \u2192 \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw 43.9%",
"Market: Korona Kielce ~34.0% implied",
"Market Drift: \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.91,
"hero_label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw odds lengthened \u2191 +4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"Recent line movement on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw (\u2191 +4.0%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.8 pp (at 43.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.9,
"lead": "The model rates \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.91,
"edge_pp": 9.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.93,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.12,
"edge_pp": -0.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.8,
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Korona Kielce",
"market_prob_pct": 37.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Korona Kielce (34.0%).",
"\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.0%, 9/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, Market \u2192 Korona Kielce, while \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.34,
"closing_odds": 2.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.34,
"entry_odds": 2.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw (4.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.83",
"2.67",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.83 \u2192 2.43 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 5m",
"pick_team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.83,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "korona-kielce",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Korona Kielce",
"away_team_id": 346,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/346.webp",
"away_team_name": "Korona Kielce",
"away_team_public_id": "2wCVpd4iVep4Rq",
"away_team_slug": "korona-kielce",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1553169,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"home_team_id": 337,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/337.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"home_team_public_id": "27oztNZV1Yf4Ns",
"home_team_slug": "slask-wroclaw",
"ht.home_team_slug": "slask-wroclaw",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_public_id": "4NuE63mQgH9Lz4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 12:45:00",
"public_id": "37s44Mem5cijq6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Tarczynski Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.384,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0376,
"ev": -0.1326,
"implied_prob": 0.3791,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3791,
"draw": 0.2807,
"home": 0.3402
},
"model_prob": 0.2812,
"p_final": 0.3415
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2995,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.2807,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3791,
"draw": 0.2807,
"home": 0.3402
},
"model_prob": 0.2797,
"p_final": 0.2804
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3832,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0701,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3791,
"draw": 0.2807,
"home": 0.3402
},
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"p_final": 0.3781
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.1125,
"ev": -0.2857,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.2812
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.43,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2915,
"model_prob": 0.2797
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0858,
"ev": 0.2427,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.4391
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3663,
"alpha_yes": 0.403,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0028,
"edge_yes": 0.0028,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0392,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0769,
"ev_yes": -0.0431,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0738,
"implied_no": 0.4298,
"implied_yes": 0.5702,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3663,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.427,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.403,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0738,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.573,
"p_final": 0.5717
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4284,
"p_final_yes": 0.5717,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3631,
"alpha_under": 0.3631,
"best_over_odd": 1.86,
"best_under_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": 0.0073,
"edge_under": -0.0073,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0179,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0588,
"ev_under": -0.0466,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0697,
"implied_over": 0.5207,
"implied_over_mf": 0.52,
"implied_under": 0.4793,
"implied_under_mf": 0.48,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3631,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.5229
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3631,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0697,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"p_final": 0.4771
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5229,
"p_final_under": 0.4771,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2427,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0701,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2427,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553169 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw, but the model still strongly favours \u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2427,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.573,
"draw_prob": 0.2797,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4391,
"over_prob": 0.528,
"total_xg": 2.79,
"under_prob": 0.472,
"xg_diff": 0.35
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0701,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3663,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0008,
"market_prob": 0.4291,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.427,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3663,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.427,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"p_final": 0.4284,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0769,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.403,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0738,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.573,
"p_final": 0.5717
}
},
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"model_prob": 0.427,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3631,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0029,
"market_prob": 0.52,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.528,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3631,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.5229
},
"p_final": 0.5229,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0588,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3631,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0697,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"p_final": 0.4771
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.5207,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553169,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0701,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2812,
"draw": 0.2797,
"home": 0.4391
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Korona Kielce",
"home": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.030781,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0701,
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u015al\u0105sk Wroc\u0142aw",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0701,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3402,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4391,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2427,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553169,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T12:44:07.020282+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Śląsk Wrocław & Korona Kielce!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ekstraklasa — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | +6.3 | 19 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 10.4 | 7.1 | +3.3 | 8 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 10.0 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 22 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | +0.2 | 15 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 15 |
| 13 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9.6 | 10.8 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 5.4 | 8.7 | -3.3 | 15 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 13 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7.4 | 11.2 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -6.6 | 3 |
