The model missed the final outcome (Legia Warszawa win 0–1).
The model had projected Pogoń Szczecin at 44.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Szczecin | 44.4% | 33.8% | +10.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 26.5% | 28.6% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Legia Warszawa | 29.1% | 37.6% | -8.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Pogoń Szczecin's win probability at 44.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Legia Warszawa win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogoń Szczecin.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Pogoń Szczecin by 10.6 percentage points (33.8% vs model 44.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 20:25 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin 44.4% · Draw 26.5% · Legia Warszawa 29.1%
- xG · Pogoń Szczecin 1.88 — Legia Warszawa 1.32
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pogoń Szczecin 2.85 · Draw 3.37 · Legia Warszawa 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin 33.8% · Draw 28.6% · Legia Warszawa 37.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pogoń Szczecin 2.85 · Draw 3.37 · Legia Warszawa 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Szczecin 33.8% · Draw 28.6% · Legia Warszawa 37.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Legia Warszawa win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.85
AI Fair Odds
1.95
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Legia Warszawa win · Pogoń Szczecin 0–1 Legia Warszawa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 51.3%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d39860712c689325125e0f0d89cb8e52344ddc0840762cfba9147b1413f521f1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.265,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.44,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.88,
"home_win_prob": 0.444,
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"over_25_prob": 0.62,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.38
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Legia Warszawa",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Legia Warszawa"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 3.8,
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"value_pct": 26.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
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"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 84.7,
"no_prob": 36.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin or Draw",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin or Legia Warszawa",
"prob": 73.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Legia Warszawa",
"prob": 55.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin or Legia Warszawa",
"pick_prob": 73.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.1,
"draw_pct": 26.5,
"home_pct": 44.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.2,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 62.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.2,
"under_prob": 38.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.7,
"implied_prob": 35.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin Win",
"model_prob": 44.4,
"odds": 2.85
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Legia Warszawa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.62,
"draw": 28.58,
"home": 33.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-24 18:29:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-24 18:03:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.8,
"gap_pp": 10.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.43
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.58,
"gap_pp": -2.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.51
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.62,
"gap_pp": -8.57,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.06
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.65,
"gap_pp": 15.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 62.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.35,
"gap_pp": -15.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 38.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.58,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.56,
"early": 2.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.07,
"early": 2.07,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.65,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
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"implied_closing_pct": 53.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.88,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.91,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Home Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"edge": 10.1,
"ev": 49.2,
"probability": 44.4
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0778,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0778,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"sort_key": 10220.02,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 62.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 38.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 36.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.6,
"hero_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"market_team": "Legia Warszawa",
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Pogo\u0144 Szczecin at 44.4% vs market 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Pogo\u0144 Szczecin as the stronger side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Pogo\u0144 Szczecin \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553104 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.6,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.88,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.88,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.88 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +39%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.9%",
"steam_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Pogo\u0144 Szczecin at 44.4% vs market 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Pogo\u0144 Szczecin as the stronger side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Pogo\u0144 Szczecin \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553104 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 1.88 xG vs Legia Warszawa 1.32 \u2192 Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 44.4%",
"Market: Legia Warszawa ~33.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin odds \u2191 +1.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob": 44.4,
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob": 33.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.08,
"fair_prob": 26.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob": 29.1,
"label": "Legia Warszawa",
"market_prob": 37.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.4,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Pogo\u0144 Szczecin\u0027s win probability at 44.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 1.88 xG vs Legia Warszawa 1.32 \u2192 Pogo\u0144 Szczecin 44.4%",
"Market: Legia Warszawa ~33.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Pogo\u0144 Szczecin odds \u2191 +1.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.6,
"hero_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin odds lengthened \u2191 +1.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (0/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Confirmation remains limited (0/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Pogo\u0144 Szczecin more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Pogo\u0144 Szczecin (\u2191 +1.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.6,
"lead": "The model rates Pogo\u0144 Szczecin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.6,
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.08,
"edge_pp": -2.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.52,
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Legia Warszawa",
"market_prob_pct": 37.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Legia Warszawa (33.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, Market \u2192 Legia Warszawa, while recent line movement odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.09,
"closing_odds": 2.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.09,
"entry_odds": 2.85,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/13",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.9%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": 1.2,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Legia Warszawa",
"away_team_id": 339,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/339.webp",
"away_team_name": "Legia Warszawa",
"away_team_slug": "legia-warszawa",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1553104,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.67,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"home_team_id": 348,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/348.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"home_team_slug": "pogon-szczecin",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-24 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Szczecin",
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3922,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0336,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.3762,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3762,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.338
},
"model_prob": 0.2906,
"p_final": 0.3426
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2907,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.2858,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3762,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.338
},
"model_prob": 0.2651,
"p_final": 0.2798
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3782,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3762,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.338
},
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"p_final": 0.3782
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.1,
"ev": -0.2561,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.2906
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2651
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0934,
"ev": 0.2662,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.4443
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0778,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2662,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Pogo\u0144 Szczecin at 44.4% vs market 33.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Pogo\u0144 Szczecin as the stronger side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Pogo\u0144 Szczecin \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553104 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pogo\u0144 Szczecin, but the model still strongly favours Pogo\u0144 Szczecin.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 39.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.634,
"draw_prob": 0.2651,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4443,
"over_prob": 0.62,
"total_xg": 3.2,
"under_prob": 0.38,
"xg_diff": 0.56
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.634,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553104,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0778,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2906,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.4443
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Legia Warszawa",
"home": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027653,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pogo\u0144 Szczecin",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4443,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2663,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553104,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-24T20:25:29.359149+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Pogoń Szczecin & Legia Warszawa!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ekstraklasa — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | +6.3 | 19 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 12.0 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | +3.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 10.4 | 7.1 | +3.3 | 8 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 10.0 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 22 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 8.4 | 8.2 | +0.2 | 15 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 10.5 | 10.6 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | -0.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 15 |
| 13 | Wisła Płock | 8 | 9.6 | 10.8 | -1.2 | 11 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 5.4 | 8.7 | -3.3 | 15 |
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 13 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7.4 | 11.2 | -3.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -6.6 | 3 |
