AI correctly predicted the Ajax win.
The match finished 1–5, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ajax Ajax ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-1 1-5 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 11.9% | 14.2% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 18.7% | 17.9% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Ajax | 69.4% | 67.9% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Ajax win 1–5).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.31) — 6 goals materialised
- Ajax attacking xG significantly stronger (2.42 vs 0.89)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Ajax win 1–5).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fortuna Sittard 11.9% · Draw 18.7% · Ajax 69.4%
- xG · Fortuna Sittard 0.89 — Ajax 2.42
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fortuna Sittard 6.80 · Draw 5.39 · Ajax 1.42
- Implied 1X2 · Fortuna Sittard 14.2% · Draw 17.9% · Ajax 67.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fortuna Sittard 6.80 · Draw 5.39 · Ajax 1.42
- Implied 1X2 · Fortuna Sittard 14.2% · Draw 17.9% · Ajax 67.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ajax win · 1–5
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
72/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
88/100
Betting Confidence
75/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
6.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ajax win · Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.1869,
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"over_25_prob": 0.643,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Ajax",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Ajax",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Ajax"
},
"away_xg": 2.42,
"betting_insight": {
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
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},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.42
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
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"overround": 3.7,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 91.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
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"home_played": 4,
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"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 81.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 18.7,
"home_pct": 11.9,
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.31,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:02:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 17:32:40",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 8.6
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{
"label": "1-1",
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}
]
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"home_xg": 0.89,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"over_prob": 64.3,
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{
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"no": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "+11.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1412,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -14.1,
"text": "-14.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1099,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 45.3,
"sort_key": 10098.91,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0229,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0229,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ajax",
"sort_key": 1794.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-2",
"top_prob": 10.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.3,
"hero_label": "Fortuna Sittard",
"market_prob_pct": 67.9,
"market_team": "Ajax",
"model_prob_pct": 69.4,
"model_team": "Ajax",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2138,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2138,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ajax at 69.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ajax as the value side (69.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ajax",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 79% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.53"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.53
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "8/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.3,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.42,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 0.89,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.42,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 0.89 \u00b7 Away xG 2.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +79%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2138,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2138,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ajax at 69.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ajax as the value side (69.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ajax",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 79% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.53"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.53
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fortuna Sittard 0.89 xG vs Ajax 2.42 \u2192 Ajax 69.4%",
"Market: Ajax ~67.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortuna Sittard odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Ajax projects stronger on expected goals (+1.53 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.3,
"fair_prob": 11.88,
"label": "Fortuna Sittard",
"market_prob": 14.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"fair_prob": 18.69,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 17.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.51,
"fair_prob": 69.43,
"label": "Ajax",
"market_prob": 67.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.04,
"fair_prob": 64.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.04,
"fair_prob": 35.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.58,
"fair_prob": 54.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.58,
"fair_prob": 45.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 11.88,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Fortuna Sittard",
"market_prob_pct": 14.18,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Fortuna Sittard"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Ajax",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 67.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 69.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ajax \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 69,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fortuna Sittard 0.89 xG vs Ajax 2.42 \u2192 Ajax 69.4%",
"Market: Ajax ~67.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortuna Sittard odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Ajax projects stronger on expected goals (+1.53 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.3,
"hero_label": "Fortuna Sittard",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Fortuna Sittard odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortuna Sittard.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortuna Sittard."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Fortuna Sittard (\u2191 +25.0%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 50.7 pp (at 69.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 50.7,
"max_prob_pct": 69.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Fortuna Sittard",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.3,
"edge_pp": -2.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 11.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fortuna Sittard",
"market_prob_pct": 14.18,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.8,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 17.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.51,
"edge_pp": 1.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 69.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ajax",
"market_prob_pct": 67.92,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortuna Sittard.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ajax (67.9%).",
"However, Fortuna Sittard has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 8/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Ajax \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 14.71,
"closing_odds": 6.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 14.71,
"entry_odds": 6.8,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 144h 25m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Fortuna Sittard (25.0%, 8/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.80",
"5.90",
"5.00"
],
"display": "7.05 \u2192 5.00 \u2192 6.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 144h 25m",
"pick_team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
6.8,
6.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/14 sportsbooks on Fortuna Sittard",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Fortuna Sittard",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Fortuna Sittard",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ajax",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 3,
"away_team_display_name": "Ajax",
"away_team_id": 194,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/194.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ajax",
"away_team_public_id": "59r1qbEsG9wbA0",
"away_team_slug": "ajax",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1552165,
"goals_away": 3,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Fortuna Sittard",
"home_team_id": 205,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/205.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fortuna Sittard",
"home_team_public_id": "16W7htSxhTkX3q",
"home_team_slug": "fortuna-sittard",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fortuna-sittard",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_public_id": "5zMr11kQIxzcev",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5UJ3mmWj0agewe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Sittard",
"venue_name": "Fortuna Sittard Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5864,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0229,
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6792,
"draw": 0.1789,
"home": 0.1418
},
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"p_final": 0.6881
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 5.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.027,
"implied_prob": 0.1789,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6792,
"draw": 0.1789,
"home": 0.1418
},
"model_prob": 0.1869,
"p_final": 0.1805
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 6.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.1418,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6792,
"draw": 0.1789,
"home": 0.1418
},
"model_prob": 0.1187,
"p_final": 0.1374
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.014,
"implied_prob": 0.7042,
"model_prob": 0.6944
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.39,
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": 0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.1855,
"model_prob": 0.1869
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 6.8,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1925,
"implied_prob": 0.1471,
"model_prob": 0.1187
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3951,
"alpha_yes": 0.5433,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0658,
"edge_yes": -0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1099,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0094,
"ev_yes": -0.1412,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.132,
"implied_no": 0.3872,
"implied_yes": 0.6128,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3951,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": -0.0094,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.453,
"p_final": 0.411
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5433,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0377,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.547,
"p_final": 0.5787
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.411,
"p_final_yes": 0.5787,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5654,
"alpha_under": 0.257,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.0,
"edge_over": -0.0504,
"edge_under": 0.0504,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0998,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0989,
"ev_under": 0.2138,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0295,
"implied_over": 0.6934,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6881,
"implied_under": 0.3066,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3119,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5654,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.6881,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.6626
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.257,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.3235
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6626,
"p_final_under": 0.3235,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.31,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.453,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "no",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2138,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2138,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2138,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2138,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2138,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ajax at 69.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ajax as the value side (69.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ajax",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ajax).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 79% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.53"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.53
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.547,
"draw_prob": 0.1869,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6944,
"over_prob": 0.643,
"total_xg": 3.31,
"under_prob": 0.357,
"xg_diff": 1.53
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0229,
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ajax"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3951,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0274,
"market_prob": 0.3836,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.453,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3951,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": -0.0094,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.453,
"p_final": 0.411
},
"p_final": 0.411,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0094,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5433,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0377,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.547,
"p_final": 0.5787
}
},
"edge": 0.0658,
"ev": 0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"model_prob": 0.453,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.257,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.3119,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.357,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5654,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.6881,
"model_prob": 0.643,
"p_final": 0.6626
},
"p_final": 0.3235,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0295,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.257,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"p_final": 0.3235
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0504,
"ev": 0.2138,
"implied_prob": 0.3066,
"model_prob": 0.357,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552165,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2138,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6944,
"draw": 0.1869,
"home": 0.1187
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.453,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.453,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ajax",
"home": "Fortuna Sittard"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076327,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2138,
"implied_prob": 0.3066,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.357,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6792,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6944,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.014,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552165,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:56:53.547988+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Fortuna Sittard & Ajax!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Eredivisie — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 7 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 3 | Ajax | 7 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Twente | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Telstar | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 12.0 | 2.7 | +9.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 11.3 | 3.8 | +7.5 | 17 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 12.4 | 5.5 | +6.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | +4.1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 5.7 | 3.1 | +2.6 | 14 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 6.9 | 4.9 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 9 | Telstar | 7 | 6.1 | 7.1 | -1.0 | 5 |
| 10 | Groningen | 7 | 7.3 | 8.6 | -1.3 | 11 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Willem II | 7 | 4.6 | 6.7 | -2.1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 5.8 | 8.0 | -2.2 | 5 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4.1 | 6.4 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 5.3 | 8.2 | -2.9 | 5 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 7 | 5.8 | 11.2 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 3.2 | 9.3 | -6.1 | 2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 3.7 | 10.7 | -7.0 | 13 |
