The model missed the final outcome (Žilina win 0–1).
The model had projected Zemplín Michalovce at 56.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Zemplín Michalovce Žilina ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemplín Michalovce | 56.0% | 26.1% | +29.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.5% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Žilina | 20.4% | 49.3% | -28.9 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Zemplín Michalovce's win probability at 56.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.1%, a difference of 29.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Žilina win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Zemplín Michalovce by 29.8 percentage points (26.2% vs model 56.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zemplín Michalovce 55.9% · Draw 23.7% · Žilina 20.4%
- xG · Zemplín Michalovce 2.05 — Žilina 1.19
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zemplín Michalovce 3.64 · Draw 3.88 · Žilina 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Zemplín Michalovce 26.1% · Draw 24.5% · Žilina 49.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zemplín Michalovce 3.64 · Draw 3.88 · Žilina 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Zemplín Michalovce 26.1% · Draw 24.5% · Žilina 49.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Žilina win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
42/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
12/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.64
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Žilina win · Zemplín Michalovce 0–1 Žilina
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "3bc612d6e380380893933f30730337535d875e6545dbf73aa0ade385ce3ab52c",
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2041,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.381,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.619,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"over_25_prob": 0.628,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.372
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : \u017dilina and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
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"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"confidence": 55.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"edge": 0.2976,
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce"
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{
"affi_link": "",
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],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
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"overround": 5.1,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 61.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 61.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 2.05,
"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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"label": "2-0",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.0
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 6.7
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce or \u017dilina",
"prob": 76.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or \u017dilina",
"prob": 44.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce or Draw",
"pick_prob": 79.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 23.6,
"home_pct": 56.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 3.24,
"away_avg_scored": 4.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 62.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.24,
"under_prob": 37.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 103.8,
"implied_prob": 27.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce Win",
"model_prob": 56.0,
"odds": 3.64
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "\u017dilina",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 49.32,
"draw": 24.53,
"home": 26.15
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 15:01:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 14:32:16",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.15,
"gap_pp": 29.76,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 55.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.53,
"gap_pp": -0.87,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.32,
"gap_pp": -28.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 20.43
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.0,
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 62.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.0,
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 37.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.64,
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"implied_closing_pct": 26.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.15,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.88,
"early": 3.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.53,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.32,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.56,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
}
},
"home_xg": 2.05,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 3.64,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"edge": 28.4,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 55.9
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1318,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.2,
"text": "+13.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1318,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.2,
"text": "+13.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0351,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"sort_key": 10268.62,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 62.8,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 37.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 38.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 61.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 29.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.81,
"hero_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"market_team": "\u017dilina",
"model_prob_pct": 56.0,
"model_team": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010353000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 28,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Zempl\u00edn Michalovce at 55.9% vs market 26.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Zempl\u00edn Michalovce as the stronger side (55.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "28 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2747252747252747,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0351,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "2/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (30 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 44,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 29.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 29.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.05,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.05,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.05 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +52%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010353000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 28,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Zempl\u00edn Michalovce at 55.9% vs market 26.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Zempl\u00edn Michalovce as the stronger side (55.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "28 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2747252747252747,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0351,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zempl\u00edn Michalovce 2.05 xG vs \u017dilina 1.19 \u2192 Zempl\u00edn Michalovce 56.0%",
"Market: \u017dilina ~26.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Zempl\u00edn Michalovce, but market pricing diverges by 30 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 29.81,
"fair_prob": 55.96,
"label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"market_prob": 26.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.9,
"fair_prob": 23.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.91,
"fair_prob": 20.41,
"label": "\u017dilina",
"market_prob": 49.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 61.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 29.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.96,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"market_prob_pct": 26.15,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Zempl\u00edn Michalovce\u0027s win probability at 56.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.1%, a difference of 29.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 29.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+29.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 29.9,
"model_prob_pct": 56.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+29.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 29.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 44,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+29.9 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Zempl\u00edn Michalovce 2.05 xG vs \u017dilina 1.19 \u2192 Zempl\u00edn Michalovce 56.0%",
"Market: \u017dilina ~26.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Zempl\u00edn Michalovce, but market pricing diverges by 30 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.81,
"hero_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 29.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 32.3 pp (at 56.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 32.3,
"max_prob_pct": 56.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"largest_gap_pp": 29.8,
"lead": "The model rates Zempl\u00edn Michalovce considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 29.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 29.81,
"edge_pp": 29.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.96,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"market_prob_pct": 26.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.9,
"edge_pp": -0.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -28.91,
"edge_pp": -28.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.41,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u017dilina",
"market_prob_pct": 49.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u017dilina (26.1%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 2/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zempl\u00edn Michalovce, Market \u2192 \u017dilina, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.47,
"closing_odds": 3.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.47,
"entry_odds": 3.64,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 124h 33m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.00 \u2192 3.28 \u2192 4.00) \u2014 net 5.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.90",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.28 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 124h 33m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.28"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.88,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "\u017dilina",
"away_team_id": 3554,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3554.webp",
"away_team_name": "\u017dilina",
"away_team_slug": "zilina",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1551524,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"home_team_id": 3552,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3552.webp",
"home_team_name": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"home_team_slug": "zemplin-michalovce",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "Super Liga Slovakia",
"league_id": 332,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/332.webp",
"league_name": "Super Liga Slovakia",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-02 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Michalovce",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.34,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0982,
"ev": -0.2377,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4932,
"draw": 0.2453,
"home": 0.2615
},
"model_prob": 0.2043,
"p_final": 0.395
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2961,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2453,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4932,
"draw": 0.2453,
"home": 0.2615
},
"model_prob": 0.2366,
"p_final": 0.2427
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4932,
"draw": 0.2453,
"home": 0.2615
},
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"p_final": 0.3109
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.3139,
"ev": -0.6058,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.2043
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.88,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.2577,
"model_prob": 0.2366
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.2844,
"ev": 1.0353,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.5591
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.24,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0353,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1318,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.9,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010353000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 28,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Zempl\u00edn Michalovce at 55.9% vs market 26.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Zempl\u00edn Michalovce as the stronger side (55.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "28 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Zempl\u00edn Michalovce), but pricing still diverges by 29.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2747252747252747,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0351,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.619,
"draw_prob": 0.2366,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5591,
"over_prob": 0.628,
"total_xg": 3.24,
"under_prob": 0.372,
"xg_diff": 0.86
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.1318,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.619,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.628,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1551524,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1318,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2043,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.5591
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u017dilina",
"home": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088427,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Zempl\u00edn Michalovce",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1318,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2615,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5591,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2747252747252747,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0351,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551524,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-02T15:01:49.648332+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Super Liga Slovakia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajská Streda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | FK Košice | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Skalica | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Komárno | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | AS Trenčín | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajská Streda | 8 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | Žilina | 9 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | FK Košice | 8 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Podbrezová | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Skalica | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | AS Trenčín | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Zemplín Michalovce | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Komárno | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Ružomberok | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
