The model missed the final outcome (Atlas win 2–3).
The model had projected Club Tijuana at 56.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Club Tijuana Atlas ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 56.0% | 46.5% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.9% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Atlas | 17.4% | 25.6% | -8.3 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Club Tijuana's win probability at 56.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 46.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Atlas win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Tijuana.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.59) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Club Tijuana by 9.6 percentage points (46.5% vs model 56.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Tijuana 56.1% · Draw 26.6% · Atlas 17.3%
- xG · Club Tijuana 1.72 — Atlas 0.87
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Tijuana 2.08 · Draw 3.47 · Atlas 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · Club Tijuana 46.5% · Draw 27.9% · Atlas 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Tijuana 2.08 · Draw 3.47 · Atlas 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · Club Tijuana 46.5% · Draw 27.9% · Atlas 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atlas win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.08
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atlas win · Club Tijuana 2–3 Atlas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9fec227aaf658d7a159f962b73d9cd00c38f8427b1ed6489731cc08fb71022c3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.87,
"away_win_prob": 0.1735,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.508,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.492,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2661,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.76,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.76,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.78,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.72,
"home_win_prob": 0.5604,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.479,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.521
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Club Tijuana or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Club Tijuana",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Club Tijuana"
},
"away_xg": 0.87,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Club Tijuana",
"confidence": 56.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Club Tijuana",
"edge": 0.0962,
"edge_gap": 0.2954,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.3,
"draw": 26.6,
"home": 56.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Club Tijuana"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.08
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.08,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Club Tijuana Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.15,
"market_odds": 2.08,
"model_odds": 1.78,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 8.1,
"value_pct": 16.9,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 58.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 82.1,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.87,
"home_expected": 1.72,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Club Tijuana or Draw",
"prob": 82.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Club Tijuana or Atlas",
"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atlas",
"prob": 43.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Club Tijuana or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.3,
"draw_pct": 26.6,
"home_pct": 56.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Club Tijuana"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.59,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 47.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.59,
"under_prob": 52.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.9,
"implied_prob": 48.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Club Tijuana Win",
"model_prob": 56.2,
"odds": 2.08
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Atlas",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.65,
"draw": 27.87,
"home": 46.49
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 02:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 02:29:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Club Tijuana",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.49,
"gap_pp": 9.62,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 56.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.87,
"gap_pp": -1.31,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.65,
"gap_pp": -8.31,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 17.34
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 47.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 52.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.49,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.87,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.77,
"early": 3.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.65,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.94,
"early": 1.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.4,
"ev": 0.032,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.129,
"model_prob_pct": 12.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.72,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4843,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.025,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.4564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4843,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"p_final": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0287,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0252,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5328,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5161
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1176,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.8,
"text": "+11.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1538,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1176,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"sort_key": 10255.84,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.044,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.044,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.561,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1669,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Club Tijuana",
"sort_key": 10039.6,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0139,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4947,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.521,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"p_final": 0.4914
},
"p_final": 0.5086,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0101,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0336,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.4947,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"p_final": 0.5086
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0755,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0316,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.2,
"text": "+3.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0316,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 47.9,
"sort_key": 10028.44,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 52.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"alert_team": "Club Tijuana",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.55,
"hero_label": "Club Tijuana",
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"market_team": "Club Tijuana",
"model_prob_pct": 56.0,
"model_team": "Club Tijuana",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1669,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Tijuana at 56.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Tijuana as the value side (56.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Tijuana",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Club Tijuana \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550976 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1669,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.55,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.87,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.72,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.72,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.72 \u00b7 Away xG 0.87 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"steam_team": "Club Tijuana",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1669,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Tijuana at 56.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Tijuana as the value side (56.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Tijuana",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Club Tijuana \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550976 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1669,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Tijuana 1.72 xG vs Atlas 0.87 \u2192 Club Tijuana 56.0%",
"Market: Club Tijuana ~46.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Club Tijuana odds \u2191 +7.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Club Tijuana, but the market has moved away from Club Tijuana.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.55,
"fair_prob": 56.04,
"label": "Club Tijuana",
"market_prob": 46.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob": 26.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.3,
"fair_prob": 17.35,
"label": "Atlas",
"market_prob": 25.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob": 47.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.65,
"fair_prob": 52.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.59,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.59,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.04,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Club Tijuana",
"market_prob_pct": 46.49,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Club Tijuana"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Club Tijuana\u0027s win probability at 56.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 46.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Club Tijuana",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 56.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Tijuana 1.72 xG vs Atlas 0.87 \u2192 Club Tijuana 56.0%",
"Market: Club Tijuana ~46.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Club Tijuana odds \u2191 +7.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Club Tijuana, but the market has moved away from Club Tijuana.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.55,
"hero_label": "Club Tijuana",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Club Tijuana odds lengthened \u2191 +7.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Tijuana.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Club Tijuana.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Tijuana.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Club Tijuana."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Club Tijuana.",
"Recent line movement on Club Tijuana (\u2191 +7.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Club Tijuana."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.4 pp (at 56.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 29.4,
"max_prob_pct": 56.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Club Tijuana",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.6,
"lead": "The model rates Club Tijuana considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.55,
"edge_pp": 9.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.04,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Club Tijuana",
"market_prob_pct": 46.49,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.26,
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.87,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.3,
"edge_pp": -8.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atlas",
"market_prob_pct": 25.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Club Tijuana.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Club Tijuana (46.5%).",
"However, Club Tijuana has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.9%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Club Tijuana, Market \u2192 Club Tijuana, while Club Tijuana odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.08,
"closing_odds": 2.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.08,
"entry_odds": 2.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Club Tijuana (7.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.08",
"1.99",
"1.90"
],
"display": "2.15 \u2192 1.85 \u2192 2.05",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 54m",
"pick_team": "Club Tijuana",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.9,
2.08,
2.05
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Club Tijuana",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Club Tijuana",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"summary": "Market moved away from Club Tijuana while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Club Tijuana",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Club Tijuana",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Club Tijuana",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atlas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atlas",
"away_team_id": 2283,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2283.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atlas",
"away_team_public_id": "16fxosOL2DgftL",
"away_team_slug": "atlas",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550976,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Club Tijuana",
"home_team_id": 2280,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2280.webp",
"home_team_name": "Club Tijuana",
"home_team_public_id": "4RzjGPCDnrS7mM",
"home_team_slug": "club-tijuana",
"ht.home_team_slug": "club-tijuana",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 03:00:00",
"public_id": "0ickElRJc8n28z",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tijuana",
"venue_name": "Estadio Caliente "
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2626,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.1153,
"implied_prob": 0.2565,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2565,
"draw": 0.2787,
"home": 0.4649
},
"model_prob": 0.1734,
"p_final": 0.2347
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.2787,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2565,
"draw": 0.2787,
"home": 0.4649
},
"model_prob": 0.2656,
"p_final": 0.2748
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3851,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.037,
"ev": 0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2565,
"draw": 0.2787,
"home": 0.4649
},
"model_prob": 0.561,
"p_final": 0.5019
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": -0.0919,
"ev": -0.3464,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.1734
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.0784,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2656
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0803,
"ev": 0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.561
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4843,
"alpha_yes": 0.5328,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.72,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0559,
"edge_yes": -0.0559,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1176,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0252,
"ev_yes": -0.1538,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1226,
"implied_no": 0.4521,
"implied_yes": 0.5479,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4843,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5328,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5161
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4814,
"p_final_yes": 0.5161,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5295,
"alpha_under": 0.5295,
"best_over_odd": 1.93,
"best_under_odd": 1.98,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.86,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.9,
"edge_over": -0.0265,
"edge_under": 0.0265,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0755,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.086,
"ev_under": 0.0316,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0336,
"implied_over": 0.5055,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5053,
"implied_under": 0.4945,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4947,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"p_final": 0.4914
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.4947,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"p_final": 0.5086
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4914,
"p_final_under": 0.5086,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.59,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1669,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1176,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1176,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1669,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Tijuana at 56.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Tijuana as the value side (56.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Tijuana",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Club Tijuana \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550976 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club Tijuana, but the model still strongly favours Club Tijuana.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1669,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.492,
"draw_prob": 0.2656,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.561,
"over_prob": 0.479,
"total_xg": 2.59,
"under_prob": 0.521,
"xg_diff": 0.85
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.037,
"ev": 0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.561,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Club Tijuana"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4843,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.025,
"market_prob": 0.4564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4843,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.4564,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4814
},
"p_final": 0.4814,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0252,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5328,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.5436,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5161
}
},
"edge": 0.0559,
"ev": 0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.4947,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.521,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"p_final": 0.4914
},
"p_final": 0.5086,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0336,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5295,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.4947,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"p_final": 0.5086
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": 0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.4945,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550976,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1176,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1734,
"draw": 0.2656,
"home": 0.561
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atlas",
"home": "Club Tijuana"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.059741,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1669,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550976,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T02:59:07.598497+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Club Tijuana & Atlas!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga MX — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Club America | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 3 | Club America | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | Leon | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 14 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 13 |
| 4 | Club America | 8 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Toluca | 10 | 8.9 | 6.1 | +2.8 | 20 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 10 |
| 7 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 11 | Leon | 9 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 14 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 14 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 3 |
