The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Guadalajara Chivas at 56.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Guadalajara Chivas Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Guadalajara Chivas; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Pachuca 0.85 — Guadalajara Chivas 1.71
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Pachuca 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "53c8711cd0fd5ebe4f34732279b52eb0439def2f5e5a7aec17ea6de012bdc5ec",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.5631,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 1.78,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.75,
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"home_predicted_xg": 0.85,
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"over_25_prob": 0.472,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.529
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Guadalajara Chivas",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Guadalajara Chivas",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Guadalajara Chivas"
},
"away_xg": 1.71,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"confidence": 56.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Guadalajara Chivas",
"edge": 0.1386,
"edge_gap": 0.2956,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4241,
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 26.7,
"home": 17.0
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Guadalajara Chivas"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.28
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Guadalajara Chivas Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.36,
"market_odds": 2.28,
"model_odds": 1.78,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 12.3,
"value_pct": 28.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 81.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 57.3,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.71,
"home_expected": 0.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pachuca or Draw",
"prob": 43.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pachuca or Guadalajara Chivas",
"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Guadalajara Chivas",
"prob": 83.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Guadalajara Chivas",
"pick_prob": 83.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 56.3,
"draw_pct": 26.7,
"home_pct": 17.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Guadalajara Chivas"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.56,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 47.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.56,
"under_prob": 52.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 28.4,
"implied_prob": 43.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Guadalajara Chivas Win",
"model_prob": 56.3,
"odds": 2.28
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.41,
"draw": 26.2,
"home": 31.39
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-29 23:01:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-29 22:31:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Pachuca",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.39,
"gap_pp": -14.36,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 17.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.2,
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.71
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.41,
"gap_pp": 13.86,
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"model_pct": 56.26
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.12,
"gap_pp": -9.02,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 47.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.88,
"gap_pp": 8.92,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"early": 3.08,
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"implied_early_pct": 31.39,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.69,
"early": 3.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.2,
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"implied_early_pct": 26.2,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.28,
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"implied_closing_pct": 42.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.12,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.7,
"ev": 0.254,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
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"model_prob_pct": 13.2,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
"top5": [
{
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"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
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},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.85,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 2.3,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Away Guadalajara Chivas",
"edge": 12.8,
"ev": 29.2,
"probability": 56.3
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0795,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.0,
"text": "+8.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0795,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+8.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"sort_key": 10221.55,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 47.1,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 52.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"alert_team": "Pachuca",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.39,
"hero_label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": 42.4,
"market_team": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"model_prob_pct": 56.3,
"model_team": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2828,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalajara Chivas at 56.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalajara Chivas as the value side (56.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Guadalajara Chivas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550943 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.39,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.71,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.85,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.71,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.85 \u00b7 Away xG 1.71 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"steam_team": "Pachuca",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2828,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalajara Chivas at 56.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalajara Chivas as the value side (56.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Guadalajara Chivas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550943 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pachuca 0.85 xG vs Guadalajara Chivas 1.71 \u2192 Guadalajara Chivas 56.3%",
"Market: Guadalajara Chivas ~42.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Pachuca odds \u2191 +14.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Guadalajara Chivas projects stronger on expected goals (+0.86 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.39,
"fair_prob": 17.0,
"label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob": 31.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.49,
"fair_prob": 26.69,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.9,
"fair_prob": 56.31,
"label": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"market_prob": 42.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 47.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 52.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": 31.39,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pachuca"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pachuca\u0027s win probability at 31.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 17.0%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 56.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Guadalajara Chivas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pachuca 0.85 xG vs Guadalajara Chivas 1.71 \u2192 Guadalajara Chivas 56.3%",
"Market: Guadalajara Chivas ~42.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Pachuca odds \u2191 +14.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Guadalajara Chivas projects stronger on expected goals (+0.86 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.39,
"hero_label": "Pachuca",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pachuca odds lengthened \u2191 +14.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Pachuca than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pachuca.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Pachuca than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pachuca."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Pachuca more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Pachuca (\u2191 +14.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Pachuca."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.6 pp (at 56.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 29.6,
"max_prob_pct": 56.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Pachuca",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pachuca higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.39,
"edge_pp": -14.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.0,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": 31.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.49,
"edge_pp": 0.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.9,
"edge_pp": 13.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"market_prob_pct": 42.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pachuca.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guadalajara Chivas (42.4%).",
"Pachuca odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.8%, 11/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Guadalajara Chivas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.47,
"closing_odds": 3.08,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.47,
"entry_odds": 3.08,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Pachuca (14.8%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.90",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.60 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 23m",
"pick_team": "Pachuca",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.08,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/13 sportsbooks on Pachuca",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Pachuca",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Pachuca",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Pachuca",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Pachuca",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"away_team_id": 2278,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2278.webp",
"away_team_name": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"away_team_public_id": "4B9JkXMFQlzpFm",
"away_team_slug": "guadalajara-chivas",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550943,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Pachuca",
"home_team_id": 2292,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2292.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pachuca",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Pachuca",
"home_team_public_id": "3nOEKuwuh9LaMp",
"home_team_slug": "pachuca",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-29 23:00:00",
"public_id": "0714ZV3wpR9utY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Pachuca de Soto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Miguel Hidalgo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.0795,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4241,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.3139
},
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"p_final": 0.4735
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2977,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0276,
"implied_prob": 0.262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4241,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.3139
},
"model_prob": 0.2671,
"p_final": 0.2635
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2354,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1372,
"implied_prob": 0.3139,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4241,
"draw": 0.262,
"home": 0.3139
},
"model_prob": 0.1703,
"p_final": 0.2801
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.124,
"ev": 0.2828,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.5626
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.2671
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": -0.1544,
"ev": -0.4754,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.1703
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.56,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2828,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0795,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2828,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalajara Chivas at 56.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalajara Chivas as the value side (56.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Guadalajara Chivas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550943 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara Chivas).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"draw_prob": 0.2671,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5626,
"over_prob": 0.471,
"total_xg": 2.56,
"under_prob": 0.528,
"xg_diff": 0.86
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0494,
"ev": 0.0795,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Guadalajara Chivas"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550943,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0795,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5626,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.1703
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"home": "Pachuca"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044727,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0795,
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Guadalajara Chivas",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0795,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4241,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5626,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550943,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T23:01:16.952095+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Pachuca & Guadalajara Chivas!
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Đăng ký ngay
Liga MX — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Leon | 10 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Necaxa | 10 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | +5.0 | 14 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | +3.6 | 13 |
| 4 | Club America | 9 | 9.7 | 6.1 | +3.6 | 20 |
| 5 | Toluca | 10 | 8.9 | 6.1 | +2.8 | 20 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 9.7 | 7.3 | +2.4 | 10 |
| 7 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 8.1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | 18 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 10 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 8.6 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 11 | Leon | 10 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.7 | 17 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 7.3 | 8.9 | -1.6 | 14 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 6.6 | 9.5 | -2.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 4.7 | 13.4 | -8.7 | 3 |
