Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc Difaa EL Jadida, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (42.4% so với mô hình 33.8%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Thị trường và mô hình nhìn chung đều đồng ý với Difaa EL Jadida. Sự khác biệt còn lại có thể phản ánh sự khác biệt trong các giả định về sức mạnh của nhóm hơn là sự bất đồng về phương hướng.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Difaa EL Jadida | 33.82% | 42.39% | -8.6 pp |
| Hòa | 32.87% | 32.76% | +0.1 pp |
| Olympique Dcheïra | 33.31% | 24.85% | +8.5 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Không đặt cược mặc định ở ngưỡng tiêu chuẩn - chỉ sử dụng tỷ lệ nghiêng cho ngữ cảnh.
Difaa EL Jadida market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Difaa EL Jadida
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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"betting_markets": {
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
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"market": "Olympique Dche\u00efra Win",
"model_prob": 33.3,
"odds": 4.22
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
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"home_xg": 1.09,
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"market_cards": [
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"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.48,
"hero_label": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"market_team": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"model_prob_pct": 33.8,
"model_team": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
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"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"edge_rows": [
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"fair_prob": 33.82,
"label": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"market_prob": 42.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.15,
"fair_prob": 32.87,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
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{
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"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.22,
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"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": -0.68,
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"market_prob": 63.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
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{
"edge_pp": -1.57,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
"market_prob_pct": 24.83,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Difaa EL Jadida"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_pct": 33.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Difaa EL Jadida, but the market prices them higher (42.1% vs model 33.8%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.48,
"hero_label": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olympique Dche\u00efra.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olympique Dche\u00efra.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olympique Dche\u00efra."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Olympique Dche\u00efra.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.5 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.5,
"max_prob_pct": 33.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"market_prob_pct": 42.15,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.15,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.02,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
"market_prob_pct": 24.83,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Olympique Dche\u00efra.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Difaa EL Jadida (42.1%).",
"Both lean Difaa EL Jadida, but the market prices them higher (42.1% vs model 33.8%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.59,
"entry_odds": 3.62,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3454,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3454.webp",
"away_team_name": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
"country_code": "MA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ma.svg",
"country_name": "Morocco",
"fixture_id": 1550843,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Morocco",
"home_team_id": 964,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/964.webp",
"home_team_name": "Difaa EL Jadida",
"league_country": "Morocco",
"league_id": 200,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/200.webp",
"league_name": "Botola Pro",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "El Jadida",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2617,
"best_odd": 3.625,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0223,
"ev": -0.0194,
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"model_prob": 0.3333,
"p_final": 0.2705
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4491,
"best_odd": 2.725,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.3302,
"model_prob": 0.3289,
"p_final": 0.3296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3935,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"model_prob": 0.3378,
"p_final": 0.3886
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"edge_no": -0.0157,
"edge_yes": 0.0157,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.048,
"ev_yes": 0.026,
"implied_no": 0.5597,
"implied_yes": 0.4403,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.68,
"best_under_odd": 1.48,
"edge_over": 0.0068,
"edge_under": -0.0068,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0111,
"ev_under": -0.0661,
"implied_over": 0.3622,
"implied_under": 0.6378,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.026,
"confidence": 3.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 3.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.456,
"draw_prob": 0.3289,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3378,
"over_prob": 0.369,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"under_prob": 0.631,
"xg_diff": 0.01
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.026,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3378,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Difaa EL Jadida"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.3622,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1550843,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.026,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.3289,
"home": 0.3378
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Olympique Dche\u00efra",
"home": "Difaa EL Jadida"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550843,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:57:49.631942+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
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Botola Pro — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Wydad AC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Raja Casablanca | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | FAR Rabat | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 5 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Hassania Agadir | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Difaa EL Jadida | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympique Dcheïra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Renaissance Berkane | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Kawkab Marrakech | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | FUS Rabat | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | UTS Rabat | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Yacoub El Mansour | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Olympique Safi | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 10 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | FAR Rabat | 8 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Wydad AC | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 | Renaissance Berkane | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Raja Casablanca | 9 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 19 |
| 6 | Hassania Agadir | 10 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | FUS Rabat | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Olympique Dcheïra | 10 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Yacoub El Mansour | 10 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | UTS Rabat | 11 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Kawkab Marrakech | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Difaa EL Jadida | 10 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 9 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Olympique Safi | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
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