The model missed the final outcome (Portmore United win 1–2).
The model had projected Cibao at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Cibao Portmore United ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cibao | 37.5% | 51.0% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.0% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Portmore United | 32.9% | 23.0% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Cibao's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Portmore United win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Cibao than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Cibao; match finished Portmore United
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cibao by 13.5 percentage points (51.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cibao 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Portmore United 32.9%
- xG · Cibao 1.35 — Portmore United 1.25
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cibao 1.73 · Draw 3.40 · Portmore United 3.84
- Implied 1X2 · Cibao 51.0% · Draw 26.0% · Portmore United 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cibao 1.73 · Draw 3.40 · Portmore United 3.84
- Implied 1X2 · Cibao 51.0% · Draw 26.0% · Portmore United 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Portmore United win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
32/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Portmore United win · Cibao 1–2 Portmore United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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"ev_available": true,
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "lean",
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"no": {
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-11.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0026,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4049.636,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2286,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0201,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.35,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cibao",
"sort_key": 1794.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -35.4%",
"alert_team": "Portmore United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.5,
"hero_label": "Cibao",
"market_prob_pct": 51.0,
"market_team": "Cibao",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Cibao",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cibao at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cibao as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cibao",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cibao \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549117 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2286,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.35,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.5,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -35.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -35.4%",
"steam_team": "Portmore United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cibao at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cibao as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cibao",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cibao \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549117 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2286,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.35,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cibao 1.35 xG vs Portmore United 1.25 \u2192 Cibao 37.5%",
"Market: Cibao ~51.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Portmore United \u2193 -35.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cibao, but sharp money moved toward Portmore United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.5,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Cibao",
"market_prob": 51.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.86,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Portmore United",
"market_prob": 22.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.2,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cibao",
"market_prob_pct": 51.04,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Portmore United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cibao\u0027s win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cibao",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cibao 1.35 xG vs Portmore United 1.25 \u2192 Cibao 37.5%",
"Market: Cibao ~51.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Portmore United \u2193 -35.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cibao, but sharp money moved toward Portmore United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.5,
"hero_label": "Cibao",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Portmore United odds shortened \u2193 -35.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Portmore United, with odds shortening by 35.4%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cibao than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Portmore United \u2014 odds shortened by 35.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Cibao than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Portmore United, with odds shortening by 35.4%.",
"Buying interest on Portmore United \u2014 odds shortened by 35.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Cibao more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Portmore United has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 35.4%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Portmore United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cibao",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cibao higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.5,
"edge_pp": -13.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cibao",
"market_prob_pct": 51.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.64,
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.86,
"edge_pp": 9.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Portmore United",
"market_prob_pct": 22.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Portmore United \u2014 odds shortened by 35.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cibao (51.0%).",
"However, Portmore United has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -35.4%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cibao, Market \u2192 Cibao, Recent sharp money \u2192 Portmore United.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -35.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -35.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -35.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 35.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books synchronized on Portmore United (35.4% steam, score 95) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -35.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.50",
"5.17",
"3.84"
],
"display": "7.50 \u2192 4.20 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 45m",
"pick_team": "Portmore United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
3.84,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,15.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.84"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Portmore United \u2193 -35.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Portmore United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Portmore United \u2193 -35.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -35.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Portmore United while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Portmore United",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -35.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Portmore United",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_team_name": "Portmore United",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "portmore-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Portmore United",
"away_team_id": 3443,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3443.webp",
"away_team_name": "Portmore United",
"away_team_public_id": "4B4Nr0HEhNqlib",
"away_team_slug": "portmore-united",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1549117,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Dominican-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Cibao",
"home_team_id": 8004,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8004.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cibao",
"home_team_public_id": "4x65cZaeAzaqOE",
"home_team_slug": "cibao",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cibao",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship",
"league_id": 856,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/856.webp",
"league_name": "CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship",
"league_public_id": "4xZrmzkjoLvssQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 23:00:00",
"public_id": "0uz36ITaWVNVzQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2556,
"best_odd": 3.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.2299,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2299,
"draw": 0.2597,
"home": 0.5104
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2552
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2838,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.2597,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2299,
"draw": 0.2597,
"home": 0.5104
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2699
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4788,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.2286,
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2299,
"draw": 0.2597,
"home": 0.5104
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4459
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.84,
"edge": 0.0683,
"ev": 0.2622,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.2024,
"ev": -0.3501,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.213,
"alpha_yes": 0.2344,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.032,
"edge_yes": 0.032,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1019,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.073,
"implied_no": 0.487,
"implied_yes": 0.513,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4829
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.5096,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5179
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4829,
"p_final_yes": 0.5179,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.232,
"alpha_under": 0.2109,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.745,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.92,
"edge_over": -0.0459,
"edge_under": 0.0459,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1028,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0689,
"implied_over": 0.5279,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5239,
"implied_under": 0.4721,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4761,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5142
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.485
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5142,
"p_final_under": 0.485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cibao at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cibao as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cibao",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cibao \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549117 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Portmore United, but the model still strongly favours Cibao.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2286,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.35,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.2286,
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cibao"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0083,
"market_prob": 0.5096,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4829
},
"p_final": 0.5179,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.073,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.5096,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5179
}
},
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.513,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.4761,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.5239,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5142
},
"p_final": 0.485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0689,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.485
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4721,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549117,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Portmore United",
"home": "Cibao"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4721,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2286,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.35,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549117,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T22:59:06.537224+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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