AI correctly predicted the Namibia win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Namibia Namibia ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Namibia | 35.6% | 38.0% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.3% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Congo | 34.7% | 29.6% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Congo's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.6%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Namibia win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Congo.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Namibia more conservatively (30.6% vs model 35.6%, 5.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Namibia win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Namibia 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Congo 34.7%
- xG · Namibia 1.31 — Congo 1.29
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Namibia 2.47 · Draw 2.91 · Congo 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Namibia 38.0% · Draw 32.3% · Congo 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Namibia 2.47 · Draw 2.91 · Congo 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Namibia 38.0% · Draw 32.3% · Congo 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Namibia win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Namibia win · Namibia 1–0 Congo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"market_comparison": [
{
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],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
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"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"label": "Namibia or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Namibia"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Away",
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"odds": 3.17
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 12:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 12:29:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Namibia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.6
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"top5": [
{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0187,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"implied_prob": 0.5523,
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"p_final": 0.5317
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0162,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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"value_side": "over"
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"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "+22.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2291,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10206.19,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0864,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0155,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1209,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Namibia",
"sort_key": 1796.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"alert_team": "Congo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.05,
"hero_label": "Congo",
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"market_team": "Namibia",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Namibia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Namibia at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Namibia as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Namibia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0864,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1209,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.05,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"steam_team": "Congo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Namibia at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Namibia as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Namibia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0864,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1209,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Namibia 1.31 xG vs Congo 1.29 \u2192 Namibia 35.6%",
"Market: Namibia ~38.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Congo \u2193 -17.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Namibia, but sharp money moved toward Congo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Namibia",
"market_prob": 38.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Congo",
"market_prob": 29.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.61,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.61,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Congo",
"market_prob_pct": 29.65,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Congo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Congo\u0027s win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.6%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Namibia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Namibia 1.31 xG vs Congo 1.29 \u2192 Namibia 35.6%",
"Market: Namibia ~38.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Congo \u2193 -17.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Namibia, but sharp money moved toward Congo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.05,
"hero_label": "Congo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Congo odds shortened \u2193 -17.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Congo.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Congo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Congo.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Congo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Congo.",
"Recent line movement on Congo (\u2193 -17.7%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Congo",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.0,
"lead": "The model rates Congo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.41,
"edge_pp": -2.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Namibia",
"market_prob_pct": 38.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.65,
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.05,
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Congo",
"market_prob_pct": 29.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Congo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Namibia (38.0%).",
"However, Congo has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.7%, 5/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Namibia, Market \u2192 Namibia, Recent sharp money \u2192 Congo.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.55,
"closing_odds": 3.17,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.55,
"entry_odds": 3.17,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Congo (17.7%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.19",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.54 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 12m",
"pick_team": "Congo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.54"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.17,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Congo \u2193 -17.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Congo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Congo \u2193 -17.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Congo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Congo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Congo",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_team_name": "Congo",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "congo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Congo",
"away_team_id": 1517,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1517.webp",
"away_team_name": "Congo",
"away_team_public_id": "3wvUH6Hq94C7xm",
"away_team_slug": "congo",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1545827,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Namibia",
"home_team_display_name": "Namibia",
"home_team_id": 1493,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1493.webp",
"home_team_name": "Namibia",
"home_team_public_id": "3ZCHLPsVssmhz8",
"home_team_slug": "namibia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "namibia",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "V\u00f2ng lo\u1ea1i C\u00fap B\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1 Ch\u00e2u Phi",
"league_id": 36,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/36.webp",
"league_name": "V\u00f2ng lo\u1ea1i C\u00fap B\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1 Ch\u00e2u Phi",
"league_public_id": "4NBRtBLCnaegxZ",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2jFcSLdj18zHAX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gaborone",
"venue_name": "Botswana National Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2771,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0155,
"implied_prob": 0.2965,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.323,
"home": 0.3805
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3106
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4323,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.323,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.323,
"home": 0.3805
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3117
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4334,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.323,
"home": 0.3805
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3699
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.0318,
"ev": 0.1009,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.1364,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0489,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2114,
"alpha_yes": 0.1922,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0961,
"edge_yes": 0.0961,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.112,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0392,
"implied_no": 0.5511,
"implied_yes": 0.4489,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5317,
"p_final_yes": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.151,
"alpha_under": 0.2076,
"best_over_odd": 2.55,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.485,
"edge_over": 0.1071,
"edge_under": -0.1071,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2291,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0309,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1043,
"implied_over": 0.3749,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3745,
"implied_under": 0.6251,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6255,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3908
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.6255,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6032
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3908,
"p_final_under": 0.6032,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Namibia at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Namibia as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Namibia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Congo, but the model still strongly favours Namibia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0864,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1209,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Namibia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4477,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"edge": 0.0961,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0162,
"market_prob": 0.3745,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3908
},
"p_final": 0.3908,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0309,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.6255,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6032
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1071,
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.3749,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1545827,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2291,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.3749,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.3749,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Congo",
"home": "Namibia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0864,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1209,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1545827,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T12:59:07.014793+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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