Hãy thận trọng
Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về Real Oruro, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Sự khác biệt lớn có thể xảy ra khi đầu vào xếp hạng không đầy đủ, ước tính sức mạnh của nhóm không chắc chắn hoặc thị trường kết hợp thông tin không có trong mô hình. Giải thích một cách thận trọng.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 39.0% | 67.93% | -28.9 pp |
| Hòa | 19.88% | 18.48% | +1.4 pp |
| Real Oruro | 41.12% | 13.59% | +27.5 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Mô hình và thị trường khác nhau về mặt cơ bản (28.9 điểm phần trăm). Việc xác nhận bổ sung được khuyến nghị trước khi diễn giải sự so sánh này.
Nacional Potosí market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Nacional Potosí
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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{
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"label": "1-2",
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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"market_prob": 39.45,
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"outcome": "no"
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"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
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"status": "market_ahead",
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
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"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Real Oruro",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 13.7,
"model_prob_pct": 41.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
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"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Real Oruro, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Nacional Potos\u00ed remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.87,
"hero_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 28.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
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"max_prob_pct": 41.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
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"label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
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"side": "home"
},
{
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"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
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"label": "Real Oruro",
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"side": "away"
}
],
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"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nacional Potos\u00ed (13.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Oruro, Market \u2192 Nacional Potos\u00ed, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
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"closing_odds": null,
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{
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{
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{
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"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 1.36,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.36,
"pick_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"unlock_label": "Unlock"
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 20252,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20252.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Oruro",
"country_code": "BO",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"fixture_id": 1538394,
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"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Bolivia",
"home_team_id": 3706,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3706.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"league_country": "Bolivia",
"league_id": 344,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/344.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 23:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Match Postponed",
"status_short": "PST",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 6.75,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.1409,
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"model_prob": 0.4111,
"p_final": 0.169
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1958,
"best_odd": 5.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.1846,
"model_prob": 0.1986,
"p_final": 0.1873
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3404,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0982,
"ev": -0.2105,
"implied_prob": 0.6787,
"model_prob": 0.3903,
"p_final": 0.5805
}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"edge_no": -0.2305,
"edge_yes": 0.2305,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.59,
"ev_yes": 0.3125,
"implied_no": 0.3945,
"implied_yes": 0.6055,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"edge_over": 0.1666,
"edge_under": -0.1666,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_under": -0.5552,
"implied_over": 0.6944,
"implied_under": 0.3056,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.84,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3125,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.836,
"draw_prob": 0.1986,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4111,
"over_prob": 0.861,
"total_xg": 4.84,
"under_prob": 0.139,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.1409,
"implied_prob": 0.1367,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4111,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Oruro"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2305,
"ev": 0.3125,
"implied_prob": 0.6055,
"model_prob": 0.836,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1666,
"ev": 0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"model_prob": 0.861,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1538394,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3125,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4111,
"draw": 0.1986,
"home": 0.3903
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.861,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.861,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1409,
"implied_prob": 0.1367,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4111,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Oruro",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Oruro",
"home": "Nacional Potos\u00ed"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.300437,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3125,
"implied_prob": 0.6055,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.836,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1538394,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:15:09.051375+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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