The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Henan Jianye at 72.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Henan Jianye Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 3-0, 4-1 1-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Jianye | 72.8% | 49.9% | +22.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 15.8% | 24.4% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Dalian Zhixing | 11.4% | 25.7% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Henan Jianye's win probability at 72.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 49.9%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Henan Jianye; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Henan Jianye by 22.9 percentage points (49.9% vs model 72.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Henan Jianye 72.8% · Draw 15.8% · Dalian Zhixing 11.4%
- xG · Henan Jianye 2.96 — Dalian Zhixing 1.18
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Henan Jianye 1.93 · Draw 3.94 · Dalian Zhixing 3.74
- Implied 1X2 · Henan Jianye 49.9% · Draw 24.4% · Dalian Zhixing 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Henan Jianye 1.93 · Draw 3.94 · Dalian Zhixing 3.74
- Implied 1X2 · Henan Jianye 49.9% · Draw 24.4% · Dalian Zhixing 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
40/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (119%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Betting Confidence
26/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Henan Jianye 1–1 Dalian Zhixing
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.782,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.218
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Henan Jianye or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Henan Jianye",
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"confidence": 72.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Henan Jianye",
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"pick_type": "winner",
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}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 19,
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"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 94.8,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Henan Jianye or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Henan Jianye or Dalian Zhixing",
"prob": 84.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dalian Zhixing",
"prob": 27.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"pick_prob": 88.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 4.14,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 78.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 78.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 4.14,
"under_prob": 21.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 40.9,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Henan Jianye Win",
"model_prob": 73.0,
"odds": 1.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dalian Zhixing",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.73,
"draw": 24.42,
"home": 49.85
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 11:34:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-31 11:04:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Henan Jianye",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.85,
"gap_pp": 22.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 72.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.42,
"gap_pp": -8.64,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 15.78
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.73,
"gap_pp": -14.33,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 11.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_closing_pct": 49.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.85,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
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{
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{
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.55,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
},
"home_xg": 2.96,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1365,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.7,
"text": "+13.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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},
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4052,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Henan Jianye",
"sort_key": 10272.85,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 78.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 21.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_no": null,
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"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 33.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 66.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 22.91,
"hero_label": "Henan Jianye",
"market_prob_pct": 49.9,
"market_team": "Henan Jianye",
"model_prob_pct": 72.8,
"model_team": "Henan Jianye",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4053,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 30,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Henan Jianye at 72.8% vs market 49.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Henan Jianye as the stronger side (72.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Henan Jianye",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Henan Jianye \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1523219 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "30 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4052,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 119.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 119% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (119%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 47,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 22.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 22.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 119.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.96,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.96,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.96 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +119%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 22.9 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4053,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 30,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Henan Jianye at 72.8% vs market 49.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Henan Jianye as the stronger side (72.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Henan Jianye",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Henan Jianye \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1523219 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "30 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4052,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 119.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 119% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Henan Jianye 2.96 xG vs Dalian Zhixing 1.18 \u2192 Henan Jianye 72.8%",
"Market: Henan Jianye ~49.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Henan Jianye, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 22.91,
"fair_prob": 72.76,
"label": "Henan Jianye",
"market_prob": 49.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.6,
"fair_prob": 15.82,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob": 11.42,
"label": "Dalian Zhixing",
"market_prob": 25.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 78.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 66.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 33.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 22.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 72.76,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Henan Jianye",
"market_prob_pct": 49.85,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Henan Jianye\u0027s win probability at 72.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 49.9%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 22.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Henan Jianye",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.9,
"model_prob_pct": 72.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 47,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Henan Jianye \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.9 pp).",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Henan Jianye 2.96 xG vs Dalian Zhixing 1.18 \u2192 Henan Jianye 72.8%",
"Market: Henan Jianye ~49.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Henan Jianye, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 22.91,
"hero_label": "Henan Jianye",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 22.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 56.9 pp (at 72.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 56.9,
"max_prob_pct": 72.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Henan Jianye",
"largest_gap_pp": 22.9,
"lead": "The model rates Henan Jianye considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 22.91,
"edge_pp": 22.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 72.76,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Henan Jianye",
"market_prob_pct": 49.85,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.6,
"edge_pp": -8.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.42,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.31,
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 11.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dalian Zhixing",
"market_prob_pct": 25.73,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Henan Jianye (49.9%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 6/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Henan Jianye \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.9 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.03 \u2192 3.29 \u2192 4.00) \u2014 net 5.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.90",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.03 \u2192 3.29 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 50m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.03"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.94,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dalian Zhixing",
"away_team_id": 21263,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21263.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dalian Zhixing",
"away_team_slug": "dalian-zhixing",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1523219,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Henan Jianye",
"home_team_id": 840,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/840.webp",
"home_team_name": "Henan Jianye",
"home_team_slug": "henan-jianye",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "Super League Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_id": 169,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/169.webp",
"league_name": "Super League Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-31 11:35:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Zhengzhou",
"venue_name": "Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.164,
"implied_prob": 0.2573,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2573,
"draw": 0.2442,
"home": 0.4985
},
"model_prob": 0.114,
"p_final": 0.2235
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2611,
"best_odd": 3.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.2442,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2573,
"draw": 0.2442,
"home": 0.4985
},
"model_prob": 0.1578,
"p_final": 0.2217
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3933,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0903,
"ev": 0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2573,
"draw": 0.2442,
"home": 0.4985
},
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"p_final": 0.5889
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": -0.1534,
"ev": -0.5736,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.114
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.94,
"edge": -0.096,
"ev": -0.3781,
"implied_prob": 0.2538,
"model_prob": 0.1578
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.21,
"ev": 0.4053,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.7281
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.14,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4053,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1365,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.5,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4053,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 30,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Henan Jianye at 72.8% vs market 49.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Henan Jianye as the stronger side (72.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 23.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Henan Jianye",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Henan Jianye \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1523219 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "30 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Henan Jianye), but pricing still diverges by 23.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4052,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 119.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 119% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.664,
"draw_prob": 0.1578,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7281,
"over_prob": 0.782,
"total_xg": 4.14,
"under_prob": 0.218,
"xg_diff": 1.78
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0903,
"ev": 0.1365,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Henan Jianye"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.782,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1523219,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1365,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.114,
"draw": 0.1578,
"home": 0.7281
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dalian Zhixing",
"home": "Henan Jianye"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.119263,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1365,
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Henan Jianye",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4985,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7281,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4052,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1523219,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-31T11:34:07.049049+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Henan Jianye & Dalian Zhixing!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Super League Trung Quốc — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 38 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Shanghai SIPG | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 31 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 27 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 25 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 52 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
| 6 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 31 |
| 7 | Shanghai SIPG | 26 | 40 | 33 | +7 | 33 |
| 8 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
| 9 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
| 12 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 |
| 13 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
| 15 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
| 16 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 4.4 | 0.1 | +4.3 | 38 |
| 2 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 2.8 | 0.8 | +2.0 | 25 |
| 3 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 1.5 | 0.6 | +0.9 | 25 |
| 4 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 2.1 | 1.5 | +0.6 | 52 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 2.6 | 2.3 | +0.3 | 38 |
| 7 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 2.3 | 2.0 | +0.3 | 40 |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 1.7 | 1.5 | +0.2 | 31 |
| 9 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 31 |
| 10 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 21 |
| 11 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 14 |
| 12 | Shanghai SIPG | 26 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 33 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -0.9 | 28 |
| 14 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 0.8 | 2.8 | -2.0 | 31 |
| 15 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 2.4 | 7.0 | -4.6 | 37 |
| 16 | Henan Jianye | 26 | — | — | — | 27 |
