The model missed the final outcome (Santos Nữ win 0–1).
The model had projected América Mineiro Nữ at 37.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 América Mineiro Nữ Santos Nữ ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| América Mineiro Nữ | 37.7% | 15.6% | +22.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.2% | 24.3% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Santos Nữ | 33.0% | 60.2% | -27.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Santos Nữ's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.0%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Santos Nữ win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned América Mineiro Nữ; match finished Santos Nữ
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on América Mineiro Nữ by 27.2 percentage points (64.9% vs model 37.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · América Mineiro Nữ 37.7% · Draw 29.2% · Santos Nữ 33.0%
- xG · América Mineiro Nữ 1.44 — Santos Nữ 1.16
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · América Mineiro Nữ 5.96 · Draw 3.82 · Santos Nữ 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · América Mineiro Nữ 15.6% · Draw 24.3% · Santos Nữ 60.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · América Mineiro Nữ 5.96 · Draw 3.82 · Santos Nữ 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · América Mineiro Nữ 15.6% · Draw 24.3% · Santos Nữ 60.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Santos Nữ win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.54
AI Fair Odds
2.39
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Santos Nữ win · América Mineiro Nữ 0–1 Santos Nữ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 41.9%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2925,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_win_prob": 0.3774,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef"
},
"away_xg": 1.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": 0.2219,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"market_odds": 5.96,
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"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 21.0,
"value_pct": 124.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 12,
"away_score_rate": 68.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
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"home_played": 12,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.16,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef or Draw",
"prob": 66.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef or Santos N\u1eef",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Santos N\u1eef",
"prob": 62.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef or Santos N\u1eef",
"pick_prob": 70.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.0,
"draw_pct": 29.2,
"home_pct": 37.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 124.9,
"implied_prob": 16.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef Win",
"model_prob": 37.7,
"odds": 5.96
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Santos N\u1eef",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 60.19,
"draw": 24.26,
"home": 15.55
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-24 21:59:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-24 21:30:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.55,
"gap_pp": 22.19,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.74
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.26,
"gap_pp": 4.98,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.25
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.19,
"gap_pp": -27.18,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.95,
"gap_pp": -0.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.05,
"gap_pp": 0.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_closing_pct": 15.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.55,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.82,
"early": 3.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 22.2,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.96,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1033,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+124.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"sort_key": 10242.97,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"alert_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.18,
"hero_label": "Santos N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 15.6,
"market_team": "Santos N\u1eef",
"model_prob_pct": 37.7,
"model_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012495000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef at 37.7% vs market 15.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef as the stronger side (37.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 5.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16778523489932887,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+124.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "9/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8181818181818182,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 27.18,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 27.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"steam_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012495000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef at 37.7% vs market 15.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef as the stronger side (37.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 5.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16778523489932887,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+124.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef 1.44 xG vs Santos N\u1eef 1.16 \u2192 Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef 37.7%",
"Market: Santos N\u1eef ~15.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef \u2193 -18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 22.19,
"fair_prob": 37.74,
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 15.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.18,
"fair_prob": 33.01,
"label": "Santos N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 60.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -27.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Santos N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 60.19,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Santos N\u1eef\u0027s win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.0%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 27.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 15.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.1 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef 1.44 xG vs Santos N\u1eef 1.16 \u2192 Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef 37.7%",
"Market: Santos N\u1eef ~15.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef \u2193 -18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.18,
"hero_label": "Santos N\u1eef",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef odds shortened \u2193 -18.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 27.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Santos N\u1eef",
"largest_gap_pp": -27.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Santos N\u1eef higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 27.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 22.19,
"edge_pp": 22.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 15.55,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.99,
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -27.18,
"edge_pp": -27.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Santos N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 60.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Santos N\u1eef (15.6%).",
"However, Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -18.2%, 9/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef, Market \u2192 Santos N\u1eef, Recent sharp money \u2192 Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.94,
"closing_odds": 1.54,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.94,
"entry_odds": 1.54,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/11 books synchronized on Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef (18.2% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.96",
"5.23",
"4.50"
],
"display": "6.25 \u2192 4.50 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 54m",
"pick_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
5.96,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,5.7 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.96"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef \u2193 -18.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef \u2193 -18.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Santos N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 1811,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1811.webp",
"away_team_name": "Santos N\u1eef",
"away_team_slug": "santos-w",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1522415,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 1802,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1802.webp",
"home_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"home_team_slug": "america-mineiro-w",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u0110QG N\u1eef Brazil",
"league_id": 74,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/74.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u0110QG N\u1eef Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-24 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belo Horizonte",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3554,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0966,
"ev": -0.2219,
"implied_prob": 0.6019,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6019,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.1555
},
"model_prob": 0.3301,
"p_final": 0.5053
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2776,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.2426,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6019,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.1555
},
"model_prob": 0.2925,
"p_final": 0.2565
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1334,
"best_odd": 5.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6019,
"draw": 0.2426,
"home": 0.1555
},
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"p_final": 0.1851
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.3192,
"ev": -0.4916,
"implied_prob": 0.6494,
"model_prob": 0.3301
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2925
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 5.96,
"edge": 0.2097,
"ev": 1.2495,
"implied_prob": 0.1678,
"model_prob": 0.3774
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.2495,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 5.4,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.012495000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef at 37.7% vs market 15.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef as the stronger side (37.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef), but pricing still diverges by 27.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 5.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16778523489932887,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+124.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2925,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3774,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.96,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.1033,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1522415,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1033,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3301,
"draw": 0.2925,
"home": 0.3774
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Santos N\u1eef",
"home": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.042884,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Am\u00e9rica Mineiro N\u1eef",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 5.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1555,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3774,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16778523489932887,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2493,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+124.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1522415,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-24T21:59:34.912891+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải VĐQG Nữ Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São Paulo Nữ | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 41 |
| 2 | Corinthians Nữ | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 |
| 3 | Palmeiras Nữ | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 36 |
| 4 | Ferroviária Nữ | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| 5 | Flamengo Nữ | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Bahia Nữ | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 29 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro Nữ | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| 8 | Grêmio Nữ | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
| 9 | Internacional Nữ | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino Nữ | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Fluminense Nữ | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 |
| 12 | Santos Nữ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 13 | Atlético Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
| 14 | Mixto Nữ | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
| 15 | Juventude Nữ | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| 16 | América Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 |
| 17 | Vitória BA W | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo W | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians Nữ | 17 | 42 | 18 | +24 | 38 |
| 2 | Palmeiras Nữ | 17 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 | São Paulo Nữ | 17 | 31 | 11 | +20 | 41 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro Nữ | 17 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 28 |
| 5 | Bahia Nữ | 17 | 30 | 21 | +9 | 29 |
| 6 | RB Bragantino Nữ | 17 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 | Flamengo Nữ | 17 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 30 |
| 8 | Ferroviária Nữ | 17 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 31 |
| 9 | Grêmio Nữ | 17 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 27 |
| 10 | Fluminense Nữ | 17 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 26 |
| 11 | Santos Nữ | 17 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 23 |
| 12 | Internacional Nữ | 17 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 27 |
| 13 | Atlético Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 16 |
| 14 | Vitória BA W | 17 | 15 | 45 | -30 | 7 |
| 15 | Mixto Nữ | 17 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 12 |
| 16 | Botafogo W | 17 | 10 | 38 | -28 | 5 |
| 17 | Juventude Nữ | 17 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 | América Mineiro Nữ | 17 | 9 | 34 | -25 | 7 |
