The model missed the final outcome (Atlético Goianiense win 0–1).
The model had projected Cuiabá at 61.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Cuiabá Atlético Goianiense ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiabá | 61.9% | 44.5% | +17.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.7% | 32.4% | -9.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Atlético Goianiense | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Cuiabá's win probability at 61.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 44.5%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Atlético Goianiense win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cuiabá.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cuiabá by 17.4 percentage points (44.5% vs model 61.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cuiabá 61.8% · Draw 22.8% · Atlético Goianiense 15.4%
- xG · Cuiabá 2.09 — Atlético Goianiense 0.97
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cuiabá 2.16 · Draw 2.97 · Atlético Goianiense 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Cuiabá 44.5% · Draw 32.4% · Atlético Goianiense 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cuiabá 2.16 · Draw 2.97 · Atlético Goianiense 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Cuiabá 44.5% · Draw 32.4% · Atlético Goianiense 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atlético Goianiense win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
48/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (55%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Betting Confidence
38/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.16
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atlético Goianiense win · Cuiabá 0–1 Atlético Goianiense
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Cuiab\u00e1",
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"bet_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
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{
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],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
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},
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"pick": "Yes",
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},
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1 or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1 or Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"prob": 77.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
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}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Home",
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"model_prob": 61.9,
"odds": 2.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.11,
"draw": 32.37,
"home": 44.51
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-23 23:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-23 22:59:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.51,
"gap_pp": 17.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 61.84
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.37,
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"model_pct": 22.77
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"movement": [
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
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"edge": 15.3,
"ev": 32.7,
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},
"market_cards": [
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0861,
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"text": "+8.6%"
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"side_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
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{
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{
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"alert_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.4,
"hero_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"market_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"model_prob_pct": 61.9,
"model_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Cuiab\u00e1 at 61.8% vs market 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Cuiab\u00e1 as the stronger side (61.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiab\u00e1 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 54.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (55%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.4,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.97,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 55.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.09,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.09,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.09 \u00b7 Away xG 0.97 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +55%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"steam_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Cuiab\u00e1 at 61.8% vs market 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Cuiab\u00e1 as the stronger side (61.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiab\u00e1 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 54.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cuiab\u00e1 2.09 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense 0.97 \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1 61.9%",
"Market: Cuiab\u00e1 ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Cuiab\u00e1 odds \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cuiab\u00e1, but the market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.4,
"fair_prob": 61.91,
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob": 44.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob": 22.72,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.74,
"fair_prob": 15.37,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"market_prob": 23.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 55.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 44.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 61.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 44.51,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Cuiab\u00e1\u0027s win probability at 61.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 44.5%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_prob_pct": 61.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cuiab\u00e1 2.09 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense 0.97 \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1 61.9%",
"Market: Cuiab\u00e1 ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Cuiab\u00e1 odds \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cuiab\u00e1, but the market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.4,
"hero_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cuiab\u00e1 odds lengthened \u2191 +7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cuiab\u00e1."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Cuiab\u00e1 more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Cuiab\u00e1 (\u2191 +7.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Cuiab\u00e1."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 39.2 pp (at 61.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 39.2,
"max_prob_pct": 61.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.4,
"lead": "The model rates Cuiab\u00e1 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.4,
"edge_pp": 17.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 61.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 44.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.65,
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.37,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.74,
"edge_pp": -7.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"market_prob_pct": 23.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cuiab\u00e1 (44.5%).",
"However, Cuiab\u00e1 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.7%, 11/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1, Market \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1, while Cuiab\u00e1 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.3,
"closing_odds": 2.16,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.3,
"entry_odds": 2.16,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Cuiab\u00e1 (7.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.16",
"2.06",
"1.95"
],
"display": "2.15 \u2192 1.93 \u2192 2.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 50m",
"pick_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.95,
2.16,
2.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.95,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/13 sportsbooks on Cuiab\u00e1",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"summary": "Market moved away from Cuiab\u00e1 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"away_team_id": 144,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/144.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-goianiense",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520784,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"home_team_id": 1193,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1193.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"home_team_slug": "cuiaba",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie B",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie B",
"league_name_canonical": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-23 23:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Arena Pantanal"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1768,
"best_odd": 4.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.0953,
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2311,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.4451
},
"model_prob": 0.1539,
"p_final": 0.2175
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3852,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1484,
"implied_prob": 0.3237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2311,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.4451
},
"model_prob": 0.2277,
"p_final": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.333,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0577,
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2311,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.4451
},
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.16,
"edge": -0.0865,
"ev": -0.3598,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.1539
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": -0.109,
"ev": -0.3238,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.2277
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.1555,
"ev": 0.3358,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"model_prob": 0.6184
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0861,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Cuiab\u00e1 at 61.8% vs market 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Cuiab\u00e1 as the stronger side (61.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiab\u00e1 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 54.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.556,
"draw_prob": 0.2277,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6184,
"over_prob": 0.59,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"under_prob": 0.41,
"xg_diff": 1.12
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0577,
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520784,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0861,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1539,
"draw": 0.2277,
"home": 0.6184
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"home": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.063893,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520784,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-23T23:29:07.179857+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cuiabá & Atlético Goianiense!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie B Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 |
| 4 | Juventude | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 6 | Operário-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 7 | Criciúma | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | CRB | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 45 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiabá | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 11 | Goiás | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceará | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avaí | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 3 | Operário-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 4 | CRB | 29 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 45 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 29 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 51 |
| 12 | Ceará | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 14 | Juventude | 29 | 31 | 19 | +12 | 50 |
| 15 | Cuiabá | 29 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 43 |
| 16 | Goiás | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 17 | Avaí | 29 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 30 |
| 18 | Criciúma | 29 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 51 |
| 3 | Cuiabá | 29 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avaí | 29 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 29 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 45 |
| 8 | Juventude | 29 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 50 |
| 9 | Criciúma | 29 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 47 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goiás | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 29 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 29 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 41 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
