AI correctly predicted the Libertad win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Libertad Libertad ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 1-0 ✖ Không đúng
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Libertad attacking xG significantly stronger (2.31 vs 1.41)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Libertad win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 21, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Libertad 2.31 — Delfín SC 1.41
-
Jul 21, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Libertad win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (71%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
1.77
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Libertad win · Libertad 1–0 Delfín SC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 56.6%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a54e1b95ca7f215056e899abb3bb51d58ce1907f92d47ee30fa387abf11a77e3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.217,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.309,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.691,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2166,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.61,
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"fair_odds_home": 1.77,
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"home_predicted_xg": 2.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.5664,
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"over_25_prob": 0.718,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.282
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Libertad FC or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Libertad FC",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Libertad FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Libertad FC",
"confidence": 56.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Libertad FC",
"edge": 0.1445,
"edge_gap": 0.3486,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4214,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 21.7,
"draw": 21.7,
"home": 56.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Libertad FC"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.26
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.26,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Libertad FC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.37,
"market_odds": 2.26,
"model_odds": 1.77,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 12.2,
"value_pct": 27.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 90.1,
"no_prob": 30.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 69.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 69.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 2.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Libertad FC or Draw",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Libertad FC or Delf\u00edn SC",
"prob": 78.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Delf\u00edn SC",
"prob": 43.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Libertad FC or Draw",
"pick_prob": 78.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 21.7,
"draw_pct": 21.7,
"home_pct": 56.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Libertad FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.72,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 71.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 71.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.72,
"under_prob": 28.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.9,
"implied_prob": 44.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Libertad FC Win",
"model_prob": 56.6,
"odds": 2.26
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.46,
"draw": 32.39,
"home": 42.14
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 21:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-21 20:59:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Libertad FC FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.14,
"gap_pp": 14.45,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 56.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.39,
"gap_pp": -10.71,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.46,
"gap_pp": -3.74,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 21.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.25,
"gap_pp": 32.55,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 71.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.75,
"gap_pp": -32.55,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.26,
"early": 2.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.14,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.74,
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"implied_closing_pct": 25.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.43,
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"implied_closing_pct": 39.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
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"implied_closing_pct": 60.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 32.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
}
},
"home_xg": 2.31,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
"best_odds": 2.35,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Libertad FC FC",
"edge": 14.0,
"ev": 32.8,
"probability": 56.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0675,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0675,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Libertad FC",
"sort_key": 10210.75,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 71.8,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 28.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 30.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 69.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.5,
"hero_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"market_team": "Libertad FC FC",
"model_prob_pct": 56.6,
"model_team": "Libertad FC FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Libertad FC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Libertad FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519419 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (71%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.5,
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.31,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.31,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +71%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Libertad FC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Libertad FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519419 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Libertad FC FC 2.31 xG vs Delf\u00edn SC 1.41 \u2192 Libertad FC FC 56.6%",
"Market: Libertad FC FC ~42.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Delf\u00edn SC odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Libertad FC FC projects stronger on expected goals (+0.90 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.5,
"fair_prob": 56.64,
"label": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob": 42.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.73,
"fair_prob": 21.66,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob": 21.7,
"label": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"market_prob": 25.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 71.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.14,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Libertad FC FC\u0027s win probability at 56.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 42.1%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 56.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Libertad FC FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Libertad FC FC 2.31 xG vs Delf\u00edn SC 1.41 \u2192 Libertad FC FC 56.6%",
"Market: Libertad FC FC ~42.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Delf\u00edn SC odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Libertad FC FC projects stronger on expected goals (+0.90 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.5,
"hero_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Delf\u00edn SC odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Delf\u00edn SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Libertad FC FC.",
"note": "Drift away from Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Libertad FC FC.",
"However, Delf\u00edn SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Libertad FC FC more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Delf\u00edn SC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Delf\u00edn SC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 34.9 pp (at 56.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 34.9,
"max_prob_pct": 56.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Libertad FC FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.5,
"lead": "The model rates Libertad FC FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.5,
"edge_pp": 14.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Libertad FC FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.73,
"edge_pp": -10.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.76,
"edge_pp": -3.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"market_prob_pct": 25.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Libertad FC FC (42.1%).",
"However, Delf\u00edn SC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +4.8%, 13/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Libertad FC FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.25,
"closing_odds": 2.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.25,
"entry_odds": 2.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Delf\u00edn SC (4.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.74",
"3.42",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.74 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 55m",
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.74,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.8",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 13/13 sportsbooks on Delf\u00edn SC",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"away_team_id": 1149,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1149.webp",
"away_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"away_team_slug": "delfin-sc",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519419,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Libertad FC",
"home_team_id": 18762,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18762.webp",
"home_team_name": "Libertad FC",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Libertad",
"home_team_slug": "libertad",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Ecuador Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_name_canonical": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-21 21:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Loja",
"venue_name": "Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2832,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.2546,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2546,
"draw": 0.3239,
"home": 0.4214
},
"model_prob": 0.2173,
"p_final": 0.2441
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3777,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0405,
"ev": -0.1666,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2546,
"draw": 0.3239,
"home": 0.4214
},
"model_prob": 0.2168,
"p_final": 0.2835
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3525,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0509,
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2546,
"draw": 0.3239,
"home": 0.4214
},
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"p_final": 0.4723
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": -0.0501,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.2173
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.1233,
"ev": -0.3626,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2168
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.1234,
"ev": 0.279,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.5659
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0675,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.279,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "Selective Lean",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Libertad FC",
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Libertad FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519419 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Libertad FC FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.4",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 71.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 71% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.691,
"draw_prob": 0.2168,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5659,
"over_prob": 0.718,
"total_xg": 3.72,
"under_prob": 0.282,
"xg_diff": 0.9
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0509,
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Libertad FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.691,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.718,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1519419,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0675,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2173,
"draw": 0.2168,
"home": 0.5659
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"home": "Libertad FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.045838,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Libertad FC",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0675,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5659,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2789,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519419,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-21T21:29:06.380447+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
Liga Pro Ecuador — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Delfín SC | 30 | 3.6 | 2.3 | +1.3 | 28 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 6 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 7 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 3.6 | 4.0 | -0.4 | 39 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 3.2 | 3.6 | -0.4 | 38 |
| 10 | Libertad | 30 | 2.4 | 3.0 | -0.6 | 41 |
| 11 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 12 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 13 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
