The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Krasnodar U19 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Krasnodar U19 Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moskva U19 | 31.0% | 25.5% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.5% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Krasnodar U19 | 39.5% | 49.0% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Krasnodar U19's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Krasnodar U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Krasnodar U19; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Krasnodar U19 by 9.6 percentage points (49.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spartak Moskva U19 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Krasnodar U19 39.5%
- xG · Spartak Moskva U19 1.21 — Krasnodar U19 1.39
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Moskva U19 3.54 · Draw 3.54 · Krasnodar U19 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Moskva U19 25.5% · Draw 25.5% · Krasnodar U19 49.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Moskva U19 3.54 · Draw 3.54 · Krasnodar U19 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Moskva U19 25.5% · Draw 25.5% · Krasnodar U19 49.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Spartak Moskva U19 0–0 Krasnodar U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Krasnodar U19 and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"winner_name": "Krasnodar U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
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"market_comparison": [
{
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],
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},
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"home_played": 22,
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
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"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"label": "Spartak Moskva U19 or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Krasnodar U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.1,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Home",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 13:59:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 13:30:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"ev_available": true,
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},
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{
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0318,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0318,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1199,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.543,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2979,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2507,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.1,
"text": "-25.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2979,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10268.11,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1881,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.8,
"text": "-18.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0438,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2734,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Krasnodar U19",
"sort_key": 1789.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"alert_team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.57,
"hero_label": "Krasnodar U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"market_team": "Krasnodar U19",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Krasnodar U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3779,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3779,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Krasnodar U19 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Krasnodar U19 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Krasnodar U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +37.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +37.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+37.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2734,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.57,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"steam_team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3779,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3779,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Krasnodar U19 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Krasnodar U19 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Krasnodar U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +37.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +37.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+37.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2734,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Spartak Moskva U19 1.21 xG vs Krasnodar U19 1.39 \u2192 Krasnodar U19 39.5%",
"Market: Krasnodar U19 ~49.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Spartak Moskva U19 odds \u2191 +3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Krasnodar U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"market_prob": 25.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.57,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Krasnodar U19",
"market_prob": 49.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.95,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.95,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Krasnodar U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.03,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Spartak Moskva U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Krasnodar U19\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Krasnodar U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Krasnodar U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Spartak Moskva U19 1.21 xG vs Krasnodar U19 1.39 \u2192 Krasnodar U19 39.5%",
"Market: Krasnodar U19 ~49.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Spartak Moskva U19 odds \u2191 +3.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Krasnodar U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.57,
"hero_label": "Krasnodar U19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Spartak Moskva U19 odds lengthened \u2191 +3.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Spartak Moskva U19 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Krasnodar U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Spartak Moskva U19 \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Krasnodar U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Spartak Moskva U19 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Spartak Moskva U19 \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Krasnodar U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Spartak Moskva U19 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Krasnodar U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Krasnodar U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.55,
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"market_prob_pct": 25.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.03,
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.57,
"edge_pp": -9.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Krasnodar U19",
"market_prob_pct": 49.03,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Spartak Moskva U19 \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Krasnodar U19 (49.0%).",
"Spartak Moskva U19 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.4%, 2/4) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Krasnodar U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.35,
"closing_odds": 1.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.35,
"entry_odds": 1.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "2/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Spartak Moskva U19 (3.4%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (2/4).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.54",
"3.48"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 3.42 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 10m",
"pick_team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.48,
3.54,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.48,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"open_odds": 3.48,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/4",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"open_odds": 3.48,
"pick_team": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "krasnodar-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Krasnodar U19",
"away_team_id": 7985,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7985.webp",
"away_team_name": "Krasnodar U19",
"away_team_public_id": "3CrjmTNQAgwXcO",
"away_team_slug": "krasnodar-u19",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1519155,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"home_team_id": 7996,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7996.webp",
"home_team_name": "Spartak Moskva U19",
"home_team_public_id": "2tEZb8c5uaI23Z",
"home_team_slug": "spartak-moskva-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "spartak-moskva-u19",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Tr\u1ebb Nga",
"league_id": 238,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/238.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Tr\u1ebb Nga",
"league_public_id": "2IG0fLEKSATc1a",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1glyV6K7I8n66g",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5142,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.049,
"ev": -0.1881,
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4903,
"draw": 0.2548,
"home": 0.2548
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4413
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.2548,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4903,
"draw": 0.2548,
"home": 0.2548
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2661
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.2548,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4903,
"draw": 0.2548,
"home": 0.2548
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2701
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.1485,
"ev": -0.2733,
"implied_prob": 0.5435,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": 0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1449,
"alpha_yes": 0.1992,
"best_no_odd": 2.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1295,
"edge_yes": -0.1295,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2979,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0318,
"ev_yes": -0.2507,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1199,
"implied_no": 0.3275,
"implied_yes": 0.6725,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1199,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6472
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3458,
"p_final_yes": 0.6472,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1814,
"alpha_under": 0.1319,
"best_over_odd": 1.38,
"best_under_odd": 2.66,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.37,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.66,
"edge_over": -0.1772,
"edge_under": 0.1772,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3348,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.14,
"ev_under": 0.3779,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0332,
"implied_over": 0.6592,
"implied_over_mf": 0.66,
"implied_under": 0.3408,
"implied_under_mf": 0.34,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1814,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.66,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6278
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0332,
"implied_prob": 0.34,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3634
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6278,
"p_final_under": 0.3634,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3779,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3779,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3779,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3779,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3779,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Krasnodar U19 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Krasnodar U19 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Krasnodar U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +37.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +37.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+37.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Krasnodar U19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2734,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.049,
"ev": -0.1881,
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Krasnodar U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.3269,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"p_final": 0.3458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0318,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1199,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6472
}
},
"edge": 0.1295,
"ev": 0.2979,
"implied_prob": 0.3275,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0235,
"market_prob": 0.34,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1814,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.66,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6278
},
"p_final": 0.3634,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0332,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1319,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0332,
"implied_prob": 0.34,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3634
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1772,
"ev": 0.3779,
"implied_prob": 0.3408,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1519155,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3779,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2979,
"implied_prob": 0.3275,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2979,
"implied_prob": 0.3275,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Krasnodar U19",
"home": "Spartak Moskva U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.137027,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3779,
"implied_prob": 0.3408,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4903,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2734,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519155,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T13:59:07.194418+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Spartak Moskva U19 & Krasnodar U19!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Trẻ Nga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moskva U19 | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 |
| 2 | Krasnodar U19 | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 53 |
| 3 | Zenit U19 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 51 |
| 4 | Rodina Moscow U19 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv Moskva U19 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 47 |
| 6 | Akademiya Konoplev U20 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44 |
| 7 | Almaz Antey U19 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | Spartak Moskva U19 | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| 9 | Rostov U19 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva U19 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 11 | Dynamo Makhachkala U19 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| 12 | Chertanovo U20 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 13 | Ural U20 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod U19 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 |
| 15 | Rubin Kazan U20 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 15 |
| 16 | Fakel U19 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moskva U19 | 24 | 77 | 33 | +44 | 56 |
| 2 | Krasnodar U19 | 24 | 72 | 36 | +36 | 53 |
| 3 | Zenit U19 | 24 | 68 | 32 | +36 | 51 |
| 4 | Rodina Moscow U19 | 24 | 62 | 31 | +31 | 48 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv Moskva U19 | 24 | 59 | 37 | +22 | 47 |
| 6 | Akademiya Konoplev U20 | 24 | 51 | 37 | +14 | 44 |
| 7 | Almaz Antey U19 | 24 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 38 |
| 8 | Dinamo Moskva U19 | 24 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Spartak Moskva U19 | 24 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | Rostov U19 | 24 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Chertanovo U20 | 24 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 23 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala U19 | 24 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Ural U20 | 24 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 22 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod U19 | 24 | 29 | 64 | -35 | 19 |
| 15 | Rubin Kazan U20 | 24 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 15 |
| 16 | Fakel U19 | 24 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 13 |
