The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Vancouver FC at 44.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Vancouver FC Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 44.4% | 37.3% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.0% | 23.6% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| York United | 30.7% | 39.1% | -8.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates York United's win probability at 39.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.7%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on York United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.37) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Vancouver FC; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vancouver FC by 8.4 percentage points (52.8% vs model 44.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vancouver FC 44.4% · Draw 24.9% · York United 30.7%
- xG · Vancouver FC 1.85 — York United 1.52
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 2.40 · Draw 3.79 · York United 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 37.3% · Draw 23.6% · York United 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 2.40 · Draw 3.79 · York United 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 37.3% · Draw 23.6% · York United 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
19/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Vancouver FC 3–3 York United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "dcd233bd842e4c399ba37e2fc45528ced99c325a65a2fcda6ec22648c4051440",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.52,
"away_win_prob": 0.3066,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.329,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.671,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2496,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.26,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.01,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.25,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.85,
"home_win_prob": 0.4438,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.654,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.346
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or York United",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "York United"
},
"away_xg": 1.52,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vancouver FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0712,
"edge_gap": 0.1376,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.373,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.7,
"draw": 24.9,
"home": 44.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vancouver FC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.68,
"market_odds": 2.4,
"model_odds": 2.25,
"overround": 11.7,
"prob_edge": 2.8,
"value_pct": 6.7,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 78.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 84.3,
"no_prob": 32.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 67.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 67.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.52,
"home_expected": 1.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Vancouver FC or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Vancouver FC or York United",
"prob": 75.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or York United",
"prob": 55.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Vancouver FC or York United",
"pick_prob": 75.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.7,
"draw_pct": 25.0,
"home_pct": 44.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Vancouver FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.37,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 65.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 65.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.37,
"under_prob": 34.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.7,
"implied_prob": 41.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Vancouver FC Win",
"model_prob": 44.4,
"odds": 2.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "York United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.09,
"draw": 23.62,
"home": 37.3
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 01:59:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 01:29:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Vancouver FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.3,
"gap_pp": 7.12,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.42
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.62,
"gap_pp": 1.31,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.92
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.09,
"gap_pp": -8.43,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.42,
"gap_pp": 4.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 65.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.58,
"gap_pp": -4.98,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 34.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.79,
"early": 3.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.62,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.09,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.52,
"early": 1.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.42,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.58,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.4,
"ev": -0.1998,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.25,
"market_prob": 0.1212,
"market_prob_pct": 12.1,
"model_prob": 0.097,
"model_prob_pct": 9.7,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.85,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.361,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.445,
"edge": 0.015,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.6295,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.671,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2626,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3705,
"model_prob": 0.329,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"p_final": 0.6445,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0304,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0687,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.361,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.6295,
"model_prob": 0.671,
"p_final": 0.6445
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1611,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0266,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.7,
"text": "+2.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0266,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 32.9,
"sort_key": 5221.28,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 67.1
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0176,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.6047,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.654,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.654,
"p_final": 0.6223
},
"p_final": 0.6223,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0125,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0603,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2593,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.346,
"p_final": 0.3825
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0137,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1627,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0137,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 65.4,
"sort_key": 5210.96,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 34.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0362,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0362,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0661,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vancouver FC",
"sort_key": 1790.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +36.1%",
"alert_team": "Vancouver FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.43,
"hero_label": "York United",
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"market_team": "York United",
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_team": "Vancouver FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0266,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0661,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vancouver FC at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vancouver FC as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vancouver FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vancouver FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +7% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517352 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +7% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0661,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.33
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.85,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.85,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.85 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +37%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +36.1%",
"steam_team": "Vancouver FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0266,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0661,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vancouver FC at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vancouver FC as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vancouver FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vancouver FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +7% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517352 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +7% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0661,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.33
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vancouver FC 1.85 xG vs York United 1.52 \u2192 Vancouver FC 44.4%",
"Market: York United ~37.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Vancouver FC odds \u2191 +36.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Vancouver FC, but the market has moved away from Vancouver FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob": 44.38,
"label": "Vancouver FC",
"market_prob": 37.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.34,
"fair_prob": 24.96,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.43,
"fair_prob": 30.66,
"label": "York United",
"market_prob": 39.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.78,
"fair_prob": 65.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.78,
"fair_prob": 34.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.4,
"fair_prob": 67.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.4,
"fair_prob": 32.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.66,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "York United",
"market_prob_pct": 39.09,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Vancouver FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates York United\u0027s win probability at 39.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.7%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vancouver FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vancouver FC 1.85 xG vs York United 1.52 \u2192 Vancouver FC 44.4%",
"Market: York United ~37.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Vancouver FC odds \u2191 +36.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Vancouver FC, but the market has moved away from Vancouver FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.43,
"hero_label": "York United",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Vancouver FC odds lengthened \u2191 +36.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Vancouver FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on York United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Vancouver FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on York United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Vancouver FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Vancouver FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices York United above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Vancouver FC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Vancouver FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 44.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 44.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "York United",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices York United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.08,
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vancouver FC",
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.34,
"edge_pp": 1.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.43,
"edge_pp": -8.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.66,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "York United",
"market_prob_pct": 39.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Vancouver FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 36.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers York United (37.3%).",
"However, Vancouver FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +36.1%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vancouver FC, Market \u2192 York United, while Vancouver FC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +43.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 43.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 37.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +37.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 37.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 36.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Vancouver FC together (36.1% drift, score 89) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.45",
"2.12",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.70 \u2192 1.74 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 52m",
"pick_team": "Vancouver FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
2.4,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Vancouver FC odds \u2191 +36.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Vancouver FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Vancouver FC odds \u2191 +36.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.1%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Vancouver FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Vancouver FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.1%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Vancouver FC",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "Vancouver FC",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "york-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "York United",
"away_team_id": 2623,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2623.webp",
"away_team_name": "York United",
"away_team_public_id": "4hZafWis2CJ9Gq",
"away_team_slug": "york-united",
"country_code": "CA",
"country_display_name": "Canada",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ca.svg",
"country_id": 30,
"country_name": "Canada",
"fixture_id": 1517352,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_display_name": "Vancouver FC",
"home_team_id": 20881,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20881.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vancouver FC",
"home_team_public_id": "0Dh0leEOtoQZUO",
"home_team_slug": "vancouver-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vancouver-fc",
"league_country": "Canada",
"league_country_display": "Canada",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Canada",
"league_id": 479,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/479.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Canada",
"league_public_id": "5erUlSPjbQk9ju",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 02:00:00",
"public_id": "0GGpjarWU8reCS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Langley",
"venue_name": "Willoughby Community Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3931,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.1808,
"implied_prob": 0.3909,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3909,
"draw": 0.2362,
"home": 0.373
},
"model_prob": 0.3066,
"p_final": 0.3577
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0903,
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3909,
"draw": 0.2362,
"home": 0.373
},
"model_prob": 0.2492,
"p_final": 0.24
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4019,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3909,
"draw": 0.2362,
"home": 0.373
},
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"p_final": 0.4016
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1301,
"ev": -0.2979,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3066
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.2492
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.4442
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2626,
"alpha_yes": 0.361,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.044,
"edge_yes": 0.044,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1611,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1172,
"ev_yes": 0.0266,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0687,
"implied_no": 0.373,
"implied_yes": 0.627,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2626,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3705,
"model_prob": 0.329,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.361,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.6295,
"model_prob": 0.671,
"p_final": 0.6445
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3596,
"p_final_yes": 0.6445,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3565,
"alpha_under": 0.2593,
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.42,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.51,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.31,
"edge_over": 0.0478,
"edge_under": -0.0478,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0137,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0603,
"ev_under": -0.1627,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1164,
"implied_over": 0.6062,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6047,
"implied_under": 0.3938,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3953,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.654,
"p_final": 0.6223
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2593,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.346,
"p_final": 0.3825
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6223,
"p_final_under": 0.3825,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.37,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0266,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0661,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0266,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0266,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0661,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vancouver FC at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vancouver FC as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vancouver FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vancouver FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +7% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517352 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +7% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Vancouver FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0661,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.33
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.671,
"draw_prob": 0.2492,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4442,
"over_prob": 0.654,
"total_xg": 3.37,
"under_prob": 0.346,
"xg_diff": 0.33
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0266,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.627,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.671,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Vancouver FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.361,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.445,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.6295,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.671,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2626,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3705,
"model_prob": 0.329,
"p_final": 0.3596
},
"p_final": 0.6445,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0687,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.361,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.6295,
"model_prob": 0.671,
"p_final": 0.6445
}
},
"edge": 0.044,
"ev": 0.0266,
"implied_prob": 0.627,
"model_prob": 0.671,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.6047,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.654,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3565,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.654,
"p_final": 0.6223
},
"p_final": 0.6223,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0603,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2593,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.346,
"p_final": 0.3825
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0478,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.6062,
"model_prob": 0.654,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1517352,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0266,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3066,
"draw": 0.2492,
"home": 0.4442
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "York United",
"home": "Vancouver FC"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0661,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517352,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T01:59:06.371459+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Vancouver FC & York United!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại hạng Canada — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge FC | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | York United | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | York United | 23 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 24 |
| 3 | Forge FC | 23 | 35 | 17 | +18 | 47 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 33 |
| 5 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 26 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 25 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 23 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 53 |
| 2 | Pacific FC | 23 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 14 |
| 3 | Forge FC | 23 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 47 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 33 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 25 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 26 |
| 7 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 37 |
| 8 | York United | 23 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 24 |
