The model missed the final outcome (Cavalry FC win 3–1).
The model had projected Atlético Ottawa at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Atlético Ottawa Cavalry FC ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 33.8% | 61.6% | -27.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 23.1% | 21.7% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Atlético Ottawa | 43.2% | 16.7% | +26.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Cavalry FC's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Cavalry FC win 3–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.84) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Atlético Ottawa; match finished Cavalry FC
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atlético Ottawa by 27.8 percentage points (71.0% vs model 43.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cavalry FC 33.8% · Draw 23.1% · Atlético Ottawa 43.1%
- xG · Cavalry FC 1.80 — Atlético Ottawa 2.04
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.49 · Draw 4.22 · Atlético Ottawa 5.49
- Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 61.6% · Draw 21.7% · Atlético Ottawa 16.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.49 · Draw 4.22 · Atlético Ottawa 5.49
- Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 61.6% · Draw 21.7% · Atlético Ottawa 16.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cavalry FC win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
43/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
12/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.49
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cavalry FC win · Cavalry FC 3–1 Atlético Ottawa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Cavalry FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"confidence": null,
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},
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"correct_score": {
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},
{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"match_winner": {
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"model_prob": 43.2,
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-22 20:29:11",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-22 20:01:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cavalry FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.73,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
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"label": "2-2",
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{
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{
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.8,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"text": "+9.2%"
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"id": "1x2",
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"raw_signal_ev": 1.3667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"sort_key": 10233.07,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 26.2,
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.81,
"hero_label": "Cavalry FC",
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"market_team": "Cavalry FC",
"model_prob_pct": 43.2,
"model_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013668,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 12,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "12 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 43,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "10/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (28 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 43,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 27.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 27.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.04,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.8,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.04,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.80 \u00b7 Away xG 2.04 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +51%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013668,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 12,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "12 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 43,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cavalry FC 1.80 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa 2.04 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa 43.2%",
"Market: Cavalry FC ~16.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -27.81,
"fair_prob": 33.75,
"label": "Cavalry FC",
"market_prob": 61.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.35,
"fair_prob": 23.08,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.46,
"fair_prob": 43.17,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"market_prob": 16.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 73.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -27.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.75,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cavalry FC",
"market_prob_pct": 61.56,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cavalry FC\u0027s win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 27.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+26.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 26.5,
"model_prob_pct": 43.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+26.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 26.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 43,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cavalry FC 1.80 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa 2.04 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa 43.2%",
"Market: Cavalry FC ~16.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.81,
"hero_label": "Cavalry FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 27.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 43.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 43.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Cavalry FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -27.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cavalry FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 27.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -27.81,
"edge_pp": -27.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cavalry FC",
"market_prob_pct": 61.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.35,
"edge_pp": 1.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.08,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 26.46,
"edge_pp": 26.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"market_prob_pct": 16.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cavalry FC (16.7%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.8%, 10/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa, Market \u2192 Cavalry FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 67.11,
"closing_odds": 1.49,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 67.11,
"entry_odds": 1.49,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (4.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.22",
"4.11",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.60 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 52m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
4.22,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,1.6 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/14 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"away_team_id": 10169,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10169.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"away_team_public_id": "2f59VRYkoj5hh4",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-ottawa",
"country_code": "CA",
"country_display_name": "Canada",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ca.svg",
"country_id": 30,
"country_name": "Canada",
"fixture_id": 1517332,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_display_name": "Cavalry FC",
"home_team_id": 2619,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2619.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cavalry FC",
"home_team_public_id": "3uQstjNllzzzHf",
"home_team_slug": "cavalry-fc",
"league_country": "Canada",
"league_country_display": "Canada",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Canada",
"league_id": 479,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/479.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Canada",
"league_public_id": "5erUlSPjbQk9ju",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-22 20:30:00",
"public_id": "0d8Sy1EpOHJRyC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "ATCO Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1208,
"best_odd": 5.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": 0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1671,
"draw": 0.2173,
"home": 0.6156
},
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"p_final": 0.199
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 4.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.2173,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1671,
"draw": 0.2173,
"home": 0.6156
},
"model_prob": 0.231,
"p_final": 0.22
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3501,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0972,
"ev": -0.2276,
"implied_prob": 0.6156,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1671,
"draw": 0.2173,
"home": 0.6156
},
"model_prob": 0.3379,
"p_final": 0.5184
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.49,
"edge": 0.249,
"ev": 1.3668,
"implied_prob": 0.1821,
"model_prob": 0.4311
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.22,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.237,
"model_prob": 0.231
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.3332,
"ev": -0.4965,
"implied_prob": 0.6711,
"model_prob": 0.3379
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.84,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.3668,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0923,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013668,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 12,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa at 43.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa as the value side (43.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 26.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "12 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 43,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.736,
"draw_prob": 0.231,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4311,
"over_prob": 0.738,
"total_xg": 3.84,
"under_prob": 0.262,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": 0.0923,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.738,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1517332,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0923,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4311,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.3379
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"home": "Cavalry FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031832,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0923,
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Ottawa",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0923,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1671,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4311,
"raw_edge_display": "+26.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 26.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3667,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517332,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-22T20:29:14.098122+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Ngoại hạng Canada — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge FC | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | York United | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 3 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 26 |
| 4 | Forge FC | 22 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 46 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | York United | 22 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 24 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 25 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 22 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 53 |
| 2 | Pacific FC | 22 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 11 |
| 3 | Forge FC | 22 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 46 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 32 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 25 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 26 |
| 7 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 37 |
| 8 | York United | 22 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 24 |
