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Bản tóm tắt:
Cả hai đều nạc FK Liepaja, nhưng thị trường định giá chúng cao hơn (50.9% so với mô hình 37.5%). Lợi thế vẫn còn khiêm tốn và trận đấu vẫn tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý khác biệt đáng kể so với giá thị trường hiện tại. Điều này có thể phản ánh sự bất đồng thực sự hoặc thông tin đánh giá đầu vào không đầy đủ.
Về mặt thực tế, thị trường lạc quan hơn về FK Liepaja so với ước tính hợp lý hiện tại.
Hành vi thị trường hiện tại cho thấy có sự nhất trí rộng rãi rằng FK Liepaja là bên chiếm ưu thế.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | 32.85% | 23.17% | +9.7 pp |
| Hòa | 29.61% | 25.95% | +3.7 pp |
| FK Liepaja | 37.54% | 50.88% | -13.3 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Không đặt cược mặc định ở ngưỡng tiêu chuẩn - chỉ sử dụng tỷ lệ nghiêng cho ngữ cảnh.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Cảnh báo xác thực mô hình
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
{
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or FK Liepaja",
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"market_comparison": [
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Home",
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"odds": 4.04
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"ev_under_display": {
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{
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{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"show": true,
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"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"edge_rows": [
{
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{
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{
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"outcome": "away"
},
{
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"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.9,
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"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.9,
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"label": "BTTS Yes",
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"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.9,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.6,
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"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
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"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FK Liepaja",
"market_prob_pct": 50.88,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Grobi\u0146a"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
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"favourite_label": "FK Liepaja",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 50.9,
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"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean FK Liepaja, but the market prices them higher (50.9% vs model 37.5%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.34,
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"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
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"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that FK Liepaja is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FK Liepaja than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about FK Liepaja than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FK Liepaja than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that FK Liepaja is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FK Liepaja more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on FK Liepaja (pricing gap 13.3 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.68,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Grobi\u0146a",
"market_prob_pct": 23.17,
"side": "home"
},
{
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"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.95,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.34,
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"is_hero": true,
"label": "FK Liepaja",
"market_prob_pct": 50.88,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about FK Liepaja than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FK Liepaja (50.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FK Liepaja, Market \u2192 FK Liepaja, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.02,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
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"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/2",
"current_odds": 4.04,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.04,
"pick_team": "Grobi\u0146a",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Grobi\u0146a",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 661,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/661.webp",
"away_team_name": "FK Liepaja",
"country_code": "LV",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lv.svg",
"country_name": "Latvia",
"fixture_id": 1515860,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Latvia",
"home_team_id": 4138,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4138.webp",
"home_team_name": "Grobi\u0146a",
"league_country": "Latvia",
"league_id": 365,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/365.webp",
"league_name": "Virsliga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-16 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4802,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0639,
"ev": -0.2059,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4449
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.2595,
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2697
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2563,
"best_odd": 3.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": 0.0057,
"implied_prob": 0.2317,
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2566
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.07,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"edge_no": 0.019,
"edge_yes": -0.019,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0582,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"implied_no": 0.436,
"implied_yes": 0.564,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.68,
"best_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.059,
"edge_under": 0.059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_under": 0.0256,
"implied_over": 0.541,
"implied_under": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0256,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.459,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0639,
"ev": -0.2059,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FK Liepaja"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.059,
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.459,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1515860,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0256,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FK Liepaja",
"home": "Grobi\u0146a"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1515860,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:44:01.298840+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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