The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Torpedo Kutaisi at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Torpedo Kutaisi Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torpedo Kutaisi | 38.5% | 37.6% | +0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.3% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 31.9% | 35.1% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Torpedo Kutaisi; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Torpedo Kutaisi 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Dinamo Tbilisi 31.9%
- xG · Torpedo Kutaisi 1.37 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.23
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Torpedo Kutaisi 2.44 · Draw 3.36 · Dinamo Tbilisi 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Torpedo Kutaisi 37.6% · Draw 27.3% · Dinamo Tbilisi 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Torpedo Kutaisi 2.44 · Draw 3.36 · Dinamo Tbilisi 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Torpedo Kutaisi 37.6% · Draw 27.3% · Dinamo Tbilisi 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
84/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.61
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Torpedo Kutaisi 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "af3adf5a05bedc3927440bb7b8beb0ab7622570937bf9288912bd695e3304453",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Dinamo Tbilisi",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Dinamo Tbilisi"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0088,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"overround": 9.1,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 70.8,
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"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 15:59:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 15:31:38",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"edge": 0.0065,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
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}
},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.1296,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0105,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1797.375,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0607,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"sort_key": 1784.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.19,
"hero_label": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"market_prob_pct": 37.6,
"market_team": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Torpedo Kutaisi at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Torpedo Kutaisi as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.19,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.19,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Torpedo Kutaisi at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Torpedo Kutaisi as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Torpedo Kutaisi 1.37 xG vs Dinamo Tbilisi 1.23 \u2192 Torpedo Kutaisi 38.5%",
"Market: Torpedo Kutaisi ~37.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Torpedo Kutaisi with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"market_prob": 37.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.28,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.19,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"market_prob": 35.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.08,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.41,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"market_prob_pct": 35.13,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Torpedo Kutaisi \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Torpedo Kutaisi 1.37 xG vs Dinamo Tbilisi 1.23 \u2192 Torpedo Kutaisi 38.5%",
"Market: Torpedo Kutaisi ~37.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Torpedo Kutaisi with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.19,
"hero_label": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.91,
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"market_prob_pct": 37.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.28,
"edge_pp": 2.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.19,
"edge_pp": -3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"market_prob_pct": 35.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Torpedo Kutaisi (37.6%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.0%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Torpedo Kutaisi \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.31,
"closing_odds": 2.61,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.31,
"entry_odds": 2.61,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.50 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.35",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 2m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.36,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"away_team_id": 2262,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2262.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"away_team_public_id": "4Mtt4JtnngrCZQ",
"away_team_slug": "dinamo-tbilisi",
"country_code": "GE",
"country_display_name": "Georgia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ge.svg",
"country_id": 59,
"country_name": "Georgia",
"fixture_id": 1509177,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Georgia",
"home_team_display_name": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"home_team_id": 685,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/685.webp",
"home_team_name": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"home_team_public_id": "3ZJim6Er0TwOFe",
"home_team_slug": "torpedo-kutaisi",
"league_country": "Georgia",
"league_country_display": "Georgia",
"league_display_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
"league_id": 327,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/327.webp",
"league_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
"league_public_id": "3f0ezu4fR8JJ1P",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4J7aOlNxx5307a",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kutaisi",
"venue_name": "Stadion Ramaz Shengelia"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4285,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.3513,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3513,
"draw": 0.2729,
"home": 0.3758
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3377
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2897,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.2729,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3513,
"draw": 0.2729,
"home": 0.3758
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2796
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.444,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3513,
"draw": 0.2729,
"home": 0.3758
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3797
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": -0.0636,
"ev": -0.1661,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0059,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2148,
"alpha_yes": 0.2363,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0341,
"edge_yes": -0.0341,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0729,
"ev_yes": -0.1296,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0982,
"implied_no": 0.4219,
"implied_yes": 0.5781,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 2.145,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.4257,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4322
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2363,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5743,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5671
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4322,
"p_final_yes": 0.5671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2313,
"alpha_under": 0.2102,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": -0.0508,
"edge_under": 0.0508,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0976,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0621,
"implied_over": 0.5328,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5257,
"implied_under": 0.4672,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4743,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5156
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4835
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5156,
"p_final_under": 0.4835,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Torpedo Kutaisi at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Torpedo Kutaisi as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Torpedo Kutaisi).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Torpedo Kutaisi"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.145,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.4257,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 2.145,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.4257,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4322
},
"p_final": 0.4322,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0729,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2363,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5743,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5671
}
},
"edge": 0.0341,
"ev": -0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.4219,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0092,
"market_prob": 0.4743,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5156
},
"p_final": 0.4835,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0621,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4835
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0508,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4672,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1509177,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
"home": "Torpedo Kutaisi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4672,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0735,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0616,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1509177,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:59:37.574982+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Torpedo Kutaisi & Dinamo Tbilisi!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Erovnuli Liga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 2 | Saburtalo | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 3 | Rustavi | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | Dila Gori | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 47 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 26 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 36 |
| 4 | Dila Gori | 27 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 40 |
| 5 | Samgurali | 27 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 |
| 6 | Saburtalo | 26 | 37 | 28 | +9 | 46 |
| 7 | Spaeri | 27 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 25 |
| 8 | Rustavi | 27 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 46 |
| 9 | Gagra | 27 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 29 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 27 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 17 |
