The model missed the final outcome (Trelleborgs FF win 2–1).
The model had projected Hässleholms IF at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Hässleholms IF Trelleborgs FF ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Không đúng
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Trelleborgs FF win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Trelleborgs FF 1.18 — Hässleholms IF 1.42
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Trelleborgs FF win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Trelleborgs FF win · Trelleborgs FF 2–1 Hässleholms IF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1998,
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"market": "1X2",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"label": "Away",
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"overround": 9.4,
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"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 20,
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"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Trelleborgs FF or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 70.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.6
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.4,
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"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 78.7,
"implied_prob": 22.9,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF Win",
"model_prob": 41.0,
"odds": 4.36
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 23.27,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 10:59:41",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 10:30:07",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Trelleborgs FF",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.27,
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"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
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{
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-18.1%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10238.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.36,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0365,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0365,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7859,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"sort_key": 10032.85,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0039,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.442,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.446
},
"p_final": 0.446,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0499,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0769,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2533,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.558,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5537
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0269,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0641,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.4,
"text": "-6.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0269,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 1793.275,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.07,
"hero_label": "Trelleborgs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 21.0,
"market_team": "Trelleborgs FF",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00e4ssleholms IF at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00e4ssleholms IF as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side H\u00e4ssleholms IF \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.45 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1504536 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.45 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.36,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2293577981651376,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7859,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.07,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00e4ssleholms IF at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00e4ssleholms IF as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side H\u00e4ssleholms IF \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.45 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1504536 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.45 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.36,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2293577981651376,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7859,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trelleborgs FF 1.18 xG vs H\u00e4ssleholms IF 1.42 \u2192 H\u00e4ssleholms IF 40.9%",
"Market: Trelleborgs FF ~21.0% implied",
"Market Drift: H\u00e4ssleholms IF odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.07,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Trelleborgs FF",
"market_prob": 55.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.13,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.94,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"market_prob": 20.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.61,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -26.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Trelleborgs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 55.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Trelleborgs FF\u0027s win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 26.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 26.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trelleborgs FF 1.18 xG vs H\u00e4ssleholms IF 1.42 \u2192 H\u00e4ssleholms IF 40.9%",
"Market: Trelleborgs FF ~21.0% implied",
"Market Drift: H\u00e4ssleholms IF odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.07,
"hero_label": "Trelleborgs FF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Trelleborgs FF",
"largest_gap_pp": -26.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Trelleborgs FF higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -26.07,
"edge_pp": -26.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Trelleborgs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 55.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.13,
"edge_pp": 6.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 19.94,
"edge_pp": 19.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"market_prob_pct": 20.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trelleborgs FF (21.0%).",
"However, H\u00e4ssleholms IF has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 8/12) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 H\u00e4ssleholms IF, Market \u2192 Trelleborgs FF, while H\u00e4ssleholms IF odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.98,
"closing_odds": 1.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.98,
"entry_odds": 1.64,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 52h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on H\u00e4ssleholms IF (25.0%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.36",
"3.78",
"3.20"
],
"display": "5.10 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 52h 15m",
"pick_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
4.36,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.36"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: H\u00e4ssleholms IF odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: H\u00e4ssleholms IF odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hassleholms-if",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"away_team_id": 6676,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6676.webp",
"away_team_name": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"away_team_public_id": "2edUOtmWzEYi4i",
"away_team_slug": "hassleholms-if",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1504536,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Trelleborgs FF",
"home_team_id": 369,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/369.webp",
"home_team_name": "Trelleborgs FF",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Trelleborgs FF",
"home_team_public_id": "0jWOwmVXpnBT1n",
"home_team_slug": "trelleborgs-ff",
"ht.home_team_slug": "trelleborgs-ff",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_id": 564,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_public_id": "3mv3qLswDEZqW8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 11:00:00",
"public_id": "4zbhQSLMJJrkHr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Trelleborgs FF",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1401,
"best_odd": 4.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0365,
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2097,
"draw": 0.2327,
"home": 0.5576
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.2377
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2724,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.2327,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2097,
"draw": 0.2327,
"home": 0.5576
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2494
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3651,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0953,
"ev": -0.2418,
"implied_prob": 0.5576,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2097,
"draw": 0.2327,
"home": 0.5576
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.4623
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.36,
"edge": 0.1802,
"ev": 0.7857,
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": 0.1551,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.3132,
"ev": -0.5137,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2302,
"alpha_yes": 0.2533,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0161,
"edge_yes": -0.0161,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0269,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0769,
"ev_yes": -0.0641,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.092,
"implied_no": 0.4429,
"implied_yes": 0.5571,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.446
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2533,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.558,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5537
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.446,
"p_final_yes": 0.5537,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.232,
"alpha_under": 0.2109,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.07,
"edge_over": -0.069,
"edge_under": 0.069,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1034,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.551,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5535,
"implied_under": 0.449,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.5535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5369,
"p_final_under": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7857,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates H\u00e4ssleholms IF at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies H\u00e4ssleholms IF as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side H\u00e4ssleholms IF \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.45 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1504536 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.45 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from H\u00e4ssleholms IF, but the model still strongly favours H\u00e4ssleholms IF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.36,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2293577981651376,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7859,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.36,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0365,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0039,
"market_prob": 0.442,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.446
},
"p_final": 0.446,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0769,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2533,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.558,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5537
}
},
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.4429,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.4465,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.5535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"p_final": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4616
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.069,
"ev": 0.0982,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1504536,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "H\u00e4ssleholms IF",
"home": "Trelleborgs FF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035607,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0365,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.36,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2293577981651376,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7859,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504536,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T10:59:43.499963+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Trelleborgs FF & Hässleholms IF!
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Ettan - Södra — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 54 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 46 |
| 3 | Hässleholms IF | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 45 |
| 4 | Lund | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 6 | Trollhättan | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Rosengård | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 8 | Jonkopings Sodra | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Tvååker | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 10 | Skövde AIK | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 11 | Eskilsminne | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 12 | Olympic | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
| 14 | Laholm | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 21 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 25 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 12 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 25 | 55 | 28 | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 25 | 49 | 35 | +14 | 46 |
| 3 | Lund | 25 | 46 | 29 | +17 | 41 |
| 4 | Hässleholms IF | 25 | 46 | 30 | +16 | 45 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 25 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 41 |
| 6 | Trollhättan | 25 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 38 |
| 7 | Rosengård | 25 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 38 |
| 8 | Olympic | 25 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Eskilsminne | 25 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 10 | Tvååker | 25 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 33 |
| 11 | Laholm | 25 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 25 |
| 12 | Skövde AIK | 25 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Ängelholms FF | 25 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 21 |
| 14 | Jonkopings Sodra | 25 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 15 | Kristianstad | 25 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 27 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 25 | 23 | 60 | -37 | 12 |
