Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Cả mô hình và thị trường đều xác định Claypole có khả năng là người chiến thắng. Sự phân kỳ hiện tại vẫn nằm trong giới hạn bình thường.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Thị trường và mô hình được liên kết rộng rãi. Bất kỳ khoảng cách giá nhỏ nào cũng có thể phản ánh tỷ lệ làm tròn hoặc biên độ của nhà cái chứ không phải là sự bất đồng về cơ cấu.
Tuy nhiên, Claypole đã có sự chênh lệch — tỷ lệ cược kéo dài thêm 0.0%, cho thấy mức hỗ trợ đang suy yếu.
Hoạt động thị trường hiện tập trung vào Claypole.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claypole | 45.82% | 44.32% | +1.5 pp |
| Hòa | 28.81% | 30.93% | -2.1 pp |
| Deportivo Muñiz | 25.37% | 24.75% | +0.6 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
Claypole market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on Claypole
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
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"tier": "slight_edge",
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"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
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"follow_up": "However, Claypole has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
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"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
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"title": "Current Market Narrative"
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{
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{
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],
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"paragraphs": [
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"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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"lifecycle": {
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{
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{
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{
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"steam_team_name": "Claypole",
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},
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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},
"match": {
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"away_team_name": "Deportivo Mu\u00f1iz",
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"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499943,
"goals_away": null,
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"home_team_country": "Argentina",
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"home_team_name": "Claypole",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 18:30:00",
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"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0018,
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"draw": {
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0093,
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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},
"btts": {
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"edge_no": -0.1219,
"edge_yes": 0.1219,
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},
"ou25": {
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}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
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"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Claypole"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1219,
"ev": 0.2662,
"implied_prob": 0.4101,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1298,
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499943,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3255,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2536,
"draw": 0.288,
"home": 0.4584
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Mu\u00f1iz",
"home": "Claypole"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.141618,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2662,
"implied_prob": 0.4101,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499943,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T11:40:10.917716+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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