The model missed the final outcome (Dock Sud win 1–2).
The model had projected Flandria at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Flandria Dock Sud ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flandria | 41.4% | 43.7% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 30.9% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Dock Sud | 29.2% | 25.4% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Dock Sud win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Flandria; match finished Dock Sud
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Dock Sud win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Flandria 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Dock Sud 29.3%
- xG · Flandria 1.43 — Dock Sud 1.17
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Flandria 2.07 · Draw 2.93 · Dock Sud 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · Flandria 43.7% · Draw 30.9% · Dock Sud 25.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Flandria 2.07 · Draw 2.93 · Dock Sud 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · Flandria 43.7% · Draw 30.9% · Dock Sud 25.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dock Sud win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
80/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.56
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Dock Sud win · Flandria 1–2 Dock Sud
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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},
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},
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"sort_key": 10206.19,
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1163,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.6,
"text": "-11.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0564,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Flandria",
"sort_key": 1785.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "Dock Sud",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.84,
"hero_label": "Dock Sud",
"market_prob_pct": 43.7,
"market_team": "Flandria",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Flandria",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flandria at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flandria as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flandria",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.84,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.84,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "Dock Sud",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flandria at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flandria as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flandria",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Flandria 1.43 xG vs Dock Sud 1.17 \u2192 Flandria 41.4%",
"Market: Flandria ~43.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Dock Sud odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Flandria with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.31,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Flandria",
"market_prob": 43.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.52,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.84,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Dock Sud",
"market_prob": 25.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.94,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.94,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.9,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.9,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Dock Sud",
"market_prob_pct": 25.41,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Dock Sud"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.84,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Flandria",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Flandria \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Flandria 1.43 xG vs Dock Sud 1.17 \u2192 Flandria 41.4%",
"Market: Flandria ~43.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Dock Sud odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Flandria with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.84,
"hero_label": "Dock Sud",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Dock Sud odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dock Sud.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dock Sud."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Dock Sud (\u2191 +6.9%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.84,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Dock Sud",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.31,
"edge_pp": -2.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Flandria",
"market_prob_pct": 43.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.52,
"edge_pp": -1.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.84,
"edge_pp": 3.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Dock Sud",
"market_prob_pct": 25.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dock Sud.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Flandria (43.7%).",
"Dock Sud odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.9%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Flandria \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.09,
"closing_odds": 3.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.09,
"entry_odds": 3.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Dock Sud (swing 3.42 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 6.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.56",
"3.23",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.42 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 51m",
"pick_team": "Dock Sud",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.56,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Dock Sud",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Dock Sud",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Dock Sud",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Dock Sud",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dock-sud",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dock Sud",
"away_team_id": 2429,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2429.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dock Sud",
"away_team_public_id": "3Svak80LIuBxO6",
"away_team_slug": "dock-sud",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499656,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Flandria",
"home_team_id": 471,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/471.webp",
"home_team_name": "Flandria",
"home_team_public_id": "41qTzWw9yNExv0",
"home_team_slug": "flandria",
"ht.home_team_slug": "flandria",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1c6BJunAGlwSy8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jauregui",
"venue_name": "Estadio Carlos V"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2826,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.2541,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2541,
"draw": 0.3088,
"home": 0.4371
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.265
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4397,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3088,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2541,
"draw": 0.3088,
"home": 0.4371
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.3021
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4342,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1163,
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2541,
"draw": 0.3088,
"home": 0.4371
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4269
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": 0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": -0.0477,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0694,
"ev": -0.1437,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2105,
"alpha_yes": 0.1914,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.099,
"edge_yes": 0.099,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2059,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1291,
"ev_yes": 0.1902,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.056,
"implied_no": 0.558,
"implied_yes": 0.442,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5376
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.056,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4605
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5376,
"p_final_yes": 0.4605,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1496,
"alpha_under": 0.2056,
"best_over_odd": 2.55,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1094,
"edge_under": -0.1094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2291,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1251,
"implied_over": 0.3726,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3692,
"implied_under": 0.6274,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6308,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1496,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3861
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1251,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6076
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3861,
"p_final_under": 0.6076,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flandria at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flandria as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flandria",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Flandria).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1163,
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Flandria"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.4414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5376
},
"p_final": 0.4605,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.056,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.056,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.541,
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}
},
"edge": 0.099,
"ev": 0.1902,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1496,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1496,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3861
},
"p_final": 0.3861,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2056,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1251,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6076
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1094,
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499656,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2291,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dock Sud",
"home": "Flandria"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.102898,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1902,
"implied_prob": 0.442,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499656,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T17:59:15.590156+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Flandria & Dock Sud!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera B Metropolitana — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 63 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 38 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 48 |
| 4 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 5 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 59 |
| 6 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 9 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 63 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 53 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 36 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 44 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 16 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 17 | Flandria | 36 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 38 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 31 |
