AI correctly predicted the San Martín Burzaco win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 San Martín Burzaco San Martín Burzaco ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | 36.6% | 39.8% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.6% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 33.8% | 27.6% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo Laferrere's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (San Martín Burzaco win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced San Martín Burzaco more conservatively (30.4% vs model 36.6%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (San Martín Burzaco win 2–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Martín Burzaco 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo Laferrere 33.8%
- xG · San Martín Burzaco 1.33 — Deportivo Laferrere 1.27
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Martín Burzaco 2.30 · Draw 2.81 · Deportivo Laferrere 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · San Martín Burzaco 39.8% · Draw 32.6% · Deportivo Laferrere 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · San Martín Burzaco 2.30 · Draw 2.81 · Deportivo Laferrere 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · San Martín Burzaco 39.8% · Draw 32.6% · Deportivo Laferrere 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Martín Burzaco win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Martín Burzaco win · San Martín Burzaco 2–1 Deportivo Laferrere
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1159,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -11.6,
"text": "-11.6%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"sort_key": 1792.9,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.2,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
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},
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn Burzaco at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn Burzaco as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.18,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn Burzaco at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn Burzaco as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 1.33 xG vs Deportivo Laferrere 1.27 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 36.6%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Laferrere odds \u2191 +14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn Burzaco with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.23,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"market_prob": 39.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.95,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob": 27.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.34,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 27.59,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Laferrere\u0027s win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 1.33 xG vs Deportivo Laferrere 1.27 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 36.6%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Laferrere odds \u2191 +14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn Burzaco with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.18,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Laferrere odds lengthened \u2191 +14.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Laferrere."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo Laferrere (\u2191 +14.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Deportivo Laferrere."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.2,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Laferrere considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.23,
"edge_pp": -3.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"market_prob_pct": 39.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.95,
"edge_pp": -2.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.18,
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 27.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Mart\u00edn Burzaco (39.8%).",
"Deportivo Laferrere odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.5%, 6/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"San Mart\u00edn Burzaco \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"closing_odds": 3.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.12,
"entry_odds": 3.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Deportivo Laferrere (14.5%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.32",
"2.97",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.29 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.32,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Deportivo Laferrere",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-laferrere",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"away_team_id": 1924,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1924.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"away_team_public_id": "1tmy1xzf86W9Dr",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-laferrere",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499645,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"home_team_id": 8387,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8387.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"home_team_public_id": "29Q76AyaWTgPCS",
"home_team_slug": "san-martin-burzaco",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-martin-burzaco",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3XvChZu81zfrfz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Francisco Boga Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2722,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0284,
"implied_prob": 0.2759,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2759,
"draw": 0.3259,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.3259,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2759,
"draw": 0.3259,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3133
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4282,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2759,
"draw": 0.3259,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3844
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": 0.0363,
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0594,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0688,
"ev": -0.1582,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.209,
"alpha_yes": 0.19,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1034,
"edge_yes": 0.1034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1302,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"implied_no": 0.5584,
"implied_yes": 0.4416,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4611
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5369,
"p_final_yes": 0.4611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1491,
"alpha_under": 0.205,
"best_over_odd": 2.54,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.43,
"edge_over": 0.1075,
"edge_under": -0.1075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"implied_over": 0.3745,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3676,
"implied_under": 0.6255,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6324,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1491,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3847
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6324,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6089
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3847,
"p_final_under": 0.6089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn Burzaco at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn Burzaco as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"market_prob": 0.4414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"p_final": 0.4611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4611
}
},
"edge": 0.1034,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1491,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.3676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1491,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3847
},
"p_final": 0.3847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6324,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6089
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1075,
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499645,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2243,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"home": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499645,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T17:57:23.972557+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho San Martín Burzaco & Deportivo Laferrere!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera B Metropolitana — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 37 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 64 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 37 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 62 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 37 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 54 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 48 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 42 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 20 | Flandria | 37 | 10 | 8 | 19 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 37 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 32 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 37 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 48 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 37 | 43 | 28 | +15 | 62 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 6 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Dock Sud | 37 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 47 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 10 | Villa Dálmine | 37 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 64 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 37 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 54 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Flandria | 37 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 38 |
| 16 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino de Quilmes | 37 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 42 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 37 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 32 |
