AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Armenio win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Deportivo Armenio Deportivo Armenio ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Camioneros | 34.7% | 43.4% | -8.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.8% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo Armenio | 35.6% | 25.8% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo Armenio's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Deportivo Armenio win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Armenio.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deportivo Armenio more conservatively (25.8% vs model 35.6%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deportivo Armenio win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Camioneros 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Deportivo Armenio 35.6%
- xG · Deportivo Camioneros 1.29 — Deportivo Armenio 1.31
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Camioneros 2.43 · Draw 2.68 · Deportivo Armenio 2.89
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Camioneros 36.4% · Draw 33.0% · Deportivo Armenio 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Camioneros 2.10 · Draw 2.96 · Deportivo Armenio 3.53
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Camioneros 43.4% · Draw 30.8% · Deportivo Armenio 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Armenio win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo Armenio win · Deportivo Camioneros 1–2 Deportivo Armenio
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
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"percent_away": "10%",
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"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 35,
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"home_score_rate": 72.5,
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Armenio"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 17:02:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 16:33:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 7.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4123,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10371.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0003,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0003,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"sort_key": 2199.976,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.82,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"market_prob_pct": 25.8,
"market_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Deportivo Armenio",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4123,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4123,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Armenio at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Armenio as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Armenio",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.82,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4123,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4123,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Armenio at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Armenio as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Armenio",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Camioneros 1.29 xG vs Deportivo Armenio 1.31 \u2192 Deportivo Armenio 35.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Camioneros ~25.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Camioneros odds \u2191 +31.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Armenio with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.7,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"market_prob": 43.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.14,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.82,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"market_prob": 25.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.94,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.94,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.66,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.66,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Armenio",
"market_prob_pct": 25.82,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Armenio\u0027s win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Armenio \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Camioneros 1.29 xG vs Deportivo Armenio 1.31 \u2192 Deportivo Armenio 35.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Camioneros ~25.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Camioneros odds \u2191 +31.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Armenio with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.82,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Camioneros odds lengthened \u2191 +31.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Deportivo Camioneros has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Armenio.",
"note": "Drift away from Deportivo Camioneros \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Armenio.",
"However, Deportivo Camioneros has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Deportivo Camioneros \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Deportivo Armenio.",
"At the same time, Deportivo Camioneros has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Deportivo Camioneros."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.8,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Armenio considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.7,
"edge_pp": -8.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"market_prob_pct": 43.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.14,
"edge_pp": -1.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.79,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.82,
"edge_pp": 9.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Armenio",
"market_prob_pct": 25.82,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Deportivo Camioneros \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Camioneros (25.8%).",
"However, Deportivo Camioneros has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +31.1%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Armenio, Market \u2192 Deportivo Camioneros, while Deportivo Camioneros odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.33,
"closing_odds": 3.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.33,
"entry_odds": 3.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +52.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 52.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 31.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Deportivo Camioneros together (31.1% drift, score 76) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.43",
"2.13",
"1.83"
],
"display": "2.62 \u2192 1.57 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.83,
2.1,
2.43,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,9.9 37.3,0.0 56.0,0.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.83,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Deportivo Camioneros odds \u2191 +31.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Deportivo Camioneros odds \u2191 +31.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-armenio",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Armenio",
"away_team_id": 2427,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2427.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Armenio",
"away_team_public_id": "3HaUPxeuoJkHpC",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-armenio",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499641,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"home_team_id": 3943,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3943.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"home_team_public_id": "1Jbv62ps5KYBUi",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-camioneros",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-camioneros",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 17:00:00",
"public_id": "1clPNYT1QazsJF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Hugo Moyano"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.256,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2582,
"draw": 0.3079,
"home": 0.434
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2832
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4425,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.3079,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2582,
"draw": 0.3079,
"home": 0.434
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.303
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3915,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.1599,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2582,
"draw": 0.3079,
"home": 0.434
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.0726,
"ev": 0.2564,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1215,
"implied_prob": 0.3378,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1289,
"ev": -0.2707,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1923,
"alpha_yes": 0.1399,
"best_no_odd": 1.55,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1466,
"edge_yes": 0.1466,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2947,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1316,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0406,
"implied_no": 0.6016,
"implied_yes": 0.3984,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.6037,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5751
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1399,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.3963,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4171
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5751,
"p_final_yes": 0.4171,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.137,
"alpha_under": 0.1883,
"best_over_odd": 2.93,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.31,
"edge_over": 0.1594,
"edge_under": -0.1594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4123,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0527,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.152,
"implied_over": 0.3226,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3227,
"implied_under": 0.6774,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6773,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.137,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.3227,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3445
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1883,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.152,
"implied_prob": 0.6773,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6473
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3445,
"p_final_under": 0.6473,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4123,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4123,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4123,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4123,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4123,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Armenio at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Armenio as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Armenio",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Armenio).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo Armenio"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1399,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.3963,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.6037,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5751
},
"p_final": 0.4171,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0406,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1399,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.3963,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4171
}
},
"edge": 0.1466,
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.137,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.3227,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.137,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.3227,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3445
},
"p_final": 0.3445,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0527,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1883,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.152,
"implied_prob": 0.6773,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6473
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1594,
"ev": 0.4123,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499641,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4123,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4123,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4123,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Armenio",
"home": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161919,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499641,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T17:02:04.870687+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Camioneros & Deportivo Armenio!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera B Metropolitana — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 63 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 38 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 48 |
| 4 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 5 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 59 |
| 6 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 9 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 63 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 53 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 36 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 44 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 16 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 17 | Flandria | 36 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 38 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 31 |
