AI correctly predicted the Nueva Chicago win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 34.2% | 37.6% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 35.3% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Nueva Chicago | 36.1% | 27.1% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Nueva Chicago's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.1%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Nueva Chicago win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Nueva Chicago more conservatively (27.1% vs model 36.1%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Nueva Chicago win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Almagro 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Nueva Chicago 36.1%
- xG · Almagro 1.28 — Nueva Chicago 1.32
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Almagro 2.38 · Draw 2.76 · Nueva Chicago 3.74
- Implied 1X2 · Almagro 40.0% · Draw 34.5% · Nueva Chicago 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Almagro 2.54 · Draw 2.70 · Nueva Chicago 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Almagro 37.6% · Draw 35.3% · Nueva Chicago 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nueva Chicago win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Nueva Chicago win · Almagro 0–1 Nueva Chicago
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "421720ec50834b15e90c76190be38460f0ccccec896a6477e17f119cf533abef",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Almagro or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
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"winner_name": "Almagro"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0899,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 3.52
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"stacked_market": null,
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"label": "Away",
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"overround": 4.8,
"prob_edge": 7.7,
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"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 16,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 9.8
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{
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{
"away": 2,
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{
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"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Almagro or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Almagro or Nueva Chicago",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 27.1,
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"label": "Away",
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"odds": 3.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 35.34,
"home": 37.56
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 18:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 18:01:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Almagro",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.46,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.34,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"lean_card": {
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"status_key": "no_value"
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"top5": [
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0205,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"implied_prob": 0.6005,
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"p_final": 0.5724
},
"p_final": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2535,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0341,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-28.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10476.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0221,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3195,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0221,
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},
"p_final": 0.3416,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0213,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.499,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 49.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2903,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.0,
"text": "-29.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.499,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10449.1,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0362,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0362,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"sort_key": 10032.58,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"alert_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.01,
"hero_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
"market_team": "Almagro",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.499,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.499,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nueva Chicago at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nueva Chicago as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nueva Chicago",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.01,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"steam_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.499,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.499,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nueva Chicago at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nueva Chicago as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nueva Chicago",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Almagro 1.28 xG vs Nueva Chicago 1.32 \u2192 Nueva Chicago 36.1%",
"Market: Almagro ~27.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +21.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nueva Chicago, but the market has moved away from Nueva Chicago.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.32,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Almagro",
"market_prob": 37.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.69,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.01,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob": 27.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.91,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.91,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Nueva Chicago\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.1%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Almagro 1.28 xG vs Nueva Chicago 1.32 \u2192 Nueva Chicago 36.1%",
"Market: Almagro ~27.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +21.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nueva Chicago, but the market has moved away from Nueva Chicago.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.01,
"hero_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Nueva Chicago odds lengthened \u2191 +21.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nueva Chicago.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nueva Chicago."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Nueva Chicago.",
"Recent line movement on Nueva Chicago (\u2191 +21.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Nueva Chicago."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Nueva Chicago",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.0,
"lead": "The model rates Nueva Chicago considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.32,
"edge_pp": -3.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Almagro",
"market_prob_pct": 37.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.69,
"edge_pp": -5.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.01,
"edge_pp": 9.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nueva Chicago",
"market_prob_pct": 27.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nueva Chicago.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Almagro (27.1%).",
"However, Nueva Chicago has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.5%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nueva Chicago, Market \u2192 Almagro, while Nueva Chicago odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
"closing_odds": 3.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.41,
"entry_odds": 3.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Nueva Chicago together (21.5% drift, score 65) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.74",
"3.31",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.74 \u2192 2.70 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.52,
3.74,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,4.6 37.3,0.0 56.0,5.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +21.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +21.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved away from Nueva Chicago while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Nueva Chicago",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"away_team_id": 484,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/484.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
"away_team_public_id": "4Z5afq7yqAsWRr",
"away_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498830,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Almagro",
"home_team_id": 482,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/482.webp",
"home_team_name": "Almagro",
"home_team_public_id": "2ISiMWX0QA1ZPO",
"home_team_slug": "almagro",
"ht.home_team_slug": "almagro",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 18:30:00",
"public_id": "4tbUNLtpl5nThQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jose Ingenieros",
"venue_name": "Estadio Tres de Febrero"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2595,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": 0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.271,
"draw": 0.3534,
"home": 0.3756
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2944
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4117,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.271,
"draw": 0.3534,
"home": 0.3756
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.33
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4276,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.3756,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.271,
"draw": 0.3534,
"home": 0.3756
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3614
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0768,
"ev": 0.2705,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": -0.0737,
"ev": -0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.1303,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1935,
"alpha_yes": 0.1407,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1491,
"edge_yes": 0.1491,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1243,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0341,
"implied_no": 0.6041,
"implied_yes": 0.3959,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1935,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1407,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.42
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5724,
"p_final_yes": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1361,
"alpha_under": 0.1872,
"best_over_odd": 3.11,
"best_under_odd": 1.37,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.865,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.345,
"edge_over": 0.1688,
"edge_under": -0.1688,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.499,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0213,
"ev_under": -0.2903,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1256,
"implied_over": 0.3132,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3195,
"implied_under": 0.6868,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6805,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3416
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1872,
"best_odd": 1.345,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.6805,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6501
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3416,
"p_final_under": 0.6501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.499,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.499,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.499,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.499,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.499,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nueva Chicago at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nueva Chicago as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nueva Chicago",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nueva Chicago, but the model still strongly favours Nueva Chicago.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": 0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Nueva Chicago"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1407,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0205,
"market_prob": 0.3995,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1935,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"p_final": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0341,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1407,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.42
}
},
"edge": 0.1491,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3959,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.3195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 2.865,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3416
},
"p_final": 0.3416,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0213,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1872,
"best_odd": 1.345,
"edge": -0.0304,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.6805,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6501
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1688,
"ev": 0.499,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498830,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.499,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.499,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.499,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nueva Chicago",
"home": "Almagro"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3959,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0362,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498830,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:29:08.220279+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
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Đăng ký ngay
Primera Nacional — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
