The model missed the final outcome (Sandvikens IF win 5–0).
The model had projected GIF Sundsvall at 42.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 GIF Sundsvall Sandvikens IF ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 5-0 ✖ Không đúng
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 5 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned GIF Sundsvall; match finished Sandvikens IF
Market lesson
The full-time result was Sandvikens IF win 5–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Sandvikens IF 1.63 — GIF Sundsvall 1.85
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sandvikens IF win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sandvikens IF win · Sandvikens IF 5–0 GIF Sundsvall
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.422,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.37,
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"over_25_prob": 0.675,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Sandvikens IF",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sandvikens IF"
},
"away_xg": 1.85,
"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2131,
"edge_gap": 0.0909,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2091,
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 24.6,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 4.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"best_odds": 4.55,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "GIF Sundsvall Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.78,
"market_odds": 4.55,
"model_odds": 2.37,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 20.2,
"value_pct": 92.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 84.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 80.4,
"no_prob": 31.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 69.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 69.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.85,
"home_expected": 1.63,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sandvikens IF or Draw",
"prob": 57.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sandvikens IF or GIF Sundsvall",
"prob": 75.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or GIF Sundsvall",
"prob": 66.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sandvikens IF or GIF Sundsvall",
"pick_prob": 75.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 42.2,
"draw_pct": 24.6,
"home_pct": 33.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "GIF Sundsvall"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.48,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 67.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.48,
"under_prob": 32.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 92.0,
"implied_prob": 22.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "GIF Sundsvall Win",
"model_prob": 42.2,
"odds": 4.55
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "GIF Sundsvall",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.91,
"draw": 24.09,
"home": 55.0
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-01 12:56:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-01 12:30:57",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.0,
"gap_pp": -21.87,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.13
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.09,
"gap_pp": 0.56,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.91,
"gap_pp": 21.31,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 42.22
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.29,
"gap_pp": 10.21,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.71,
"gap_pp": -10.21,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 32.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.95,
"early": 3.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.55,
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"implied_closing_pct": 20.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.29,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.71,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.63,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0834,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0834,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.921,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+92.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "GIF Sundsvall",
"sort_key": 10225.06,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 67.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 32.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 31.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 69.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"alert_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.83,
"hero_label": "Sandvikens IF",
"market_prob_pct": 20.9,
"market_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"model_prob_pct": 42.2,
"model_team": "GIF Sundsvall",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees GIF Sundsvall at 42.2% vs market 20.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies GIF Sundsvall as the stronger side (42.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GIF Sundsvall",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side GIF Sundsvall \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.55 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +92% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1497647 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.55 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +92% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.921,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+92.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "2/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (22 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.83,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.85,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.63,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.85,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.63 \u00b7 Away xG 1.85 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +37%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"steam_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees GIF Sundsvall at 42.2% vs market 20.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies GIF Sundsvall as the stronger side (42.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GIF Sundsvall",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side GIF Sundsvall \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.55 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +92% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1497647 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.55 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +92% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.921,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+92.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sandvikens IF 1.63 xG vs GIF Sundsvall 1.85 \u2192 GIF Sundsvall 42.2%",
"Market: Sandvikens IF ~20.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Sandvikens IF odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans GIF Sundsvall, but market pricing diverges by 22 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -21.83,
"fair_prob": 33.17,
"label": "Sandvikens IF",
"market_prob": 55.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.55,
"fair_prob": 24.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.29,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "GIF Sundsvall",
"market_prob": 20.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 69.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sandvikens IF",
"market_prob_pct": 55.0,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sandvikens IF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sandvikens IF\u0027s win probability at 55.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.2%, a difference of 21.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "GIF Sundsvall",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.3,
"model_prob_pct": 42.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "GIF Sundsvall \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+21.3 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sandvikens IF 1.63 xG vs GIF Sundsvall 1.85 \u2192 GIF Sundsvall 42.2%",
"Market: Sandvikens IF ~20.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Sandvikens IF odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans GIF Sundsvall, but market pricing diverges by 22 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.83,
"hero_label": "Sandvikens IF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sandvikens IF odds lengthened \u2191 +3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.0 pp (at 42.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.0,
"max_prob_pct": 42.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Sandvikens IF",
"largest_gap_pp": -21.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sandvikens IF higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -21.83,
"edge_pp": -21.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sandvikens IF",
"market_prob_pct": 55.0,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.55,
"edge_pp": 0.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.29,
"edge_pp": 21.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "GIF Sundsvall",
"market_prob_pct": 20.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sandvikens IF (20.9%).",
"Sandvikens IF odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.0%, 2/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 GIF Sundsvall, Market \u2192 Sandvikens IF, while Sandvikens IF odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "2/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 115h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Sandvikens IF (swing 1.78 \u2192 1.65 \u2192 1.70) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.73",
"1.69",
"1.65"
],
"display": "1.78 \u2192 1.65 \u2192 1.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 115h 36m",
"pick_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.78"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.65,
1.73,
1.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.65"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.65"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.65,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sandvikens IF",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/12",
"current_odds": 1.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"pick_team": "Sandvikens IF",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Sandvikens IF",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "GIF Sundsvall",
"away_team_id": 373,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/373.webp",
"away_team_name": "GIF Sundsvall",
"away_team_slug": "gif-sundsvall",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1497647,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Sandvikens IF",
"home_team_id": 6697,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6697.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sandvikens IF",
"home_team_slug": "sandviken",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Superettan",
"league_id": 114,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
"league_name": "Superettan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-01 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sandvikens IF",
"venue_name": "Jernvallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 4.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.029,
"ev": 0.0834,
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2091,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.55
},
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"p_final": 0.2381
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2975,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.2409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2091,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.55
},
"model_prob": 0.2465,
"p_final": 0.2425
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4032,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0882,
"ev": -0.201,
"implied_prob": 0.55,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2091,
"draw": 0.2409,
"home": 0.55
},
"model_prob": 0.3313,
"p_final": 0.4618
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.55,
"edge": 0.2024,
"ev": 0.921,
"implied_prob": 0.2198,
"model_prob": 0.4222
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.2465
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.2467,
"ev": -0.4268,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.3313
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.921,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0834,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.6,
"score_before_guard": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.921,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees GIF Sundsvall at 42.2% vs market 20.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies GIF Sundsvall as the stronger side (42.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "GIF Sundsvall",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side GIF Sundsvall \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.55 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +92% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1497647 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.55 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (GIF Sundsvall), but pricing still diverges by 21.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +92% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.921,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+92.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.69,
"draw_prob": 0.2465,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4222,
"over_prob": 0.675,
"total_xg": 3.48,
"under_prob": 0.325,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.029,
"ev": 0.0834,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "GIF Sundsvall"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.69,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.675,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1497647,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0834,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4222,
"draw": 0.2465,
"home": 0.3313
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "GIF Sundsvall",
"home": "Sandvikens IF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028169,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0834,
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "GIF Sundsvall",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0834,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.55,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2091,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4222,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21978021978021978,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.921,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+92.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497647,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-01T12:56:04.776076+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sandvikens IF & GIF Sundsvall!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Superettan — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 55 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 4 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 43 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 |
| 6 | IK Oddevold | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 7 | Östers IF | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 36 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 9 | Sandvikens IF | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 10 | Helsingborgs IF | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 11 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 12 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 24 |
| 14 | Örebro SK | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 48 | 16 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 44 | 33 | +11 | 44 |
| 4 | Sandvikens IF | 25 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 34 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 40 |
| 6 | IK Brage | 25 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 23 |
| 7 | IK Oddevold | 25 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 36 |
| 8 | Östers IF | 25 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Helsingborgs IF | 25 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 43 |
| 12 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 | Norrby IF | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
| 15 | Örebro SK | 25 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 19 | 53 | -34 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 4.8 | 2.8 | +2.0 | 44 |
| 2 | IFK Norrköping | 25 | 4.5 | 2.8 | +1.7 | 55 |
| 3 | Ljungskile SK | 25 | 1.2 | 1.1 | +0.1 | 28 |
| 4 | IK Oddevold | 25 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 36 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Östersunds FK | 25 | 0.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | 43 |
| 7 | Falkenbergs FF | 25 | — | — | — | 45 |
| 8 | Östers IF | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 10 | Sandvikens IF | 25 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 11 | Helsingborgs IF | 25 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 12 | IFK Värnamo | 25 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 14 | Örebro SK | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 25 | — | — | — | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | — | — | — | 19 |
