The model missed the final outcome (Sarpsborg 08 II win 3–4).
The model had projected Ørn Horten at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (7 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ørn Horten Sarpsborg 08 II ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-4 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ørn Horten | 40.4% | 46.5% | -6.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.5% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Sarpsborg 08 II | 30.1% | 32.0% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.5%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Sarpsborg 08 II win 3–4.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ørn Horten by 7.9 percentage points (32.5% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ørn Horten 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Sarpsborg 08 II 30.1%
- xG · Ørn Horten 1.41 — Sarpsborg 08 II 1.19
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ørn Horten 1.91 · Draw 4.13 · Sarpsborg 08 II 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Ørn Horten 46.5% · Draw 21.5% · Sarpsborg 08 II 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ørn Horten 1.91 · Draw 4.13 · Sarpsborg 08 II 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Ørn Horten 46.5% · Draw 21.5% · Sarpsborg 08 II 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sarpsborg 08 II win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
60/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sarpsborg 08 II win · Ørn Horten 3–4 Sarpsborg 08 II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c3c4910277e7454d9e592621ef935e5230db2fa4ed03bd8e08fcc3a34d90fe60",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.3014,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.32,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4042,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : \u00d8rn Horten or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "\u00d8rn Horten"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0604,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4652,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 40.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.91
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u00d8rn Horten Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.15,
"market_odds": 1.91,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -11.9,
"value_pct": -22.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u00d8rn Horten or Draw",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u00d8rn Horten or Sarpsborg 08 II",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II",
"prob": 59.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u00d8rn Horten or Sarpsborg 08 II",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.1,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u00d8rn Horten"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.4,
"implied_prob": 24.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 4.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.96,
"draw": 21.52,
"home": 46.52
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 16:59:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 16:29:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.52,
"gap_pp": -6.04,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.52,
"gap_pp": 7.89,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.96,
"gap_pp": -1.85,
"kind": "1x2_a",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 4.13,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.78,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.8,
"ev": 0.4375,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 11.5,
"market_prob": 0.087,
"market_prob_pct": 8.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0242,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.215,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1442,
"implied_prob": 0.785,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7441
},
"p_final": 0.2392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 30.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1756,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0046,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0046,
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"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2392
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.412,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -41.2,
"text": "-41.2%"
},
"ev_under": 1.1756,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 117.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.1756,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11208.04,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0171,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.244,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"p_final": 0.2611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7175,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.021,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.036,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.756,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.7201
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.9236,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 92.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3225,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.2,
"text": "-32.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.9236,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10831.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1744,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.4,
"text": "-17.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.054,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.4,
"text": "-5.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"sort_key": 1786.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"alert_team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.92,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"market_team": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011755999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011755999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00d8rn Horten at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00d8rn Horten as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1744,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.92,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"steam_team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011755999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011755999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00d8rn Horten at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00d8rn Horten as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1744,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00d8rn Horten 1.41 xG vs Sarpsborg 08 II 1.19 \u2192 \u00d8rn Horten 40.4%",
"Market: \u00d8rn Horten ~46.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Sarpsborg 08 II \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u00d8rn Horten, but sharp money moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.1,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"market_prob": 46.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.92,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"market_prob": 31.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -29.69,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 77.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 29.69,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 22.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.57,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 75.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.57,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 24.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.52,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Sarpsborg 08 II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.5%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00d8rn Horten 1.41 xG vs Sarpsborg 08 II 1.19 \u2192 \u00d8rn Horten 40.4%",
"Market: \u00d8rn Horten ~46.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Sarpsborg 08 II \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u00d8rn Horten, but sharp money moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.92,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Sarpsborg 08 II odds shortened \u2193 -20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Sarpsborg 08 II, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on Sarpsborg 08 II \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Sarpsborg 08 II, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"Buying interest on Sarpsborg 08 II \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Sarpsborg 08 II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 20.0%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.9,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.1,
"edge_pp": -6.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"market_prob_pct": 46.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.92,
"edge_pp": 7.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.82,
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"market_prob_pct": 31.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Sarpsborg 08 II \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u00d8rn Horten (46.5%).",
"However, Sarpsborg 08 II has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.0%, 5/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u00d8rn Horten, Market \u2192 \u00d8rn Horten, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sarpsborg 08 II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.21,
"closing_odds": 4.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.21,
"entry_odds": 4.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -32.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -32.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 6h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Sarpsborg 08 II (20.0%, 5/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.26",
"2.78"
],
"display": "3.95 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 6h 1m",
"pick_team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
2.78,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,13.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.78"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sarpsborg 08 II \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sarpsborg 08 II \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sarpsborg-08-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"away_team_id": 16215,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16215.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"away_team_public_id": "3hScKuqYG11zUw",
"away_team_slug": "sarpsborg-08-ii",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497412,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"home_team_id": 7052,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7052.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"home_team_public_id": "00WQ54v8gSiPGM",
"home_team_slug": "rn-horten",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rn-horten",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 6 Na Uy",
"league_id": 779,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/779.webp",
"league_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 6 Na Uy",
"league_public_id": "21MNcAyRV781AK",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2XZp07fZdAnzfc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Lystlunden Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4375,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.3196,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3196,
"draw": 0.2152,
"home": 0.4652
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1763,
"best_odd": 4.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.2152,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3196,
"draw": 0.2152,
"home": 0.4652
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2291
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5456,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1744,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3196,
"draw": 0.2152,
"home": 0.4652
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4322
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": -0.0586,
"ev": -0.1628,
"implied_prob": 0.3597,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.13,
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.2145,
"implied_prob": 0.2421,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1188,
"ev": -0.2269,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.168,
"best_no_odd": 4.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2157,
"edge_yes": -0.2157,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.9236,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.021,
"ev_yes": -0.3225,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1287,
"implied_no": 0.2423,
"implied_yes": 0.7577,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.036,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.756,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.7201
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.2611,
"p_final_yes": 0.7201,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.135,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.22,
"best_under_odd": 4.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.15,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.2,
"edge_over": -0.2969,
"edge_under": 0.2969,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.412,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1442,
"ev_under": 1.1756,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0046,
"implied_over": 0.7789,
"implied_over_mf": 0.785,
"implied_under": 0.2211,
"implied_under_mf": 0.215,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.135,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1442,
"implied_prob": 0.785,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7441
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0046,
"implied_prob": 0.215,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2392
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7441,
"p_final_under": 0.2392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.1756,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1756,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.1756,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.011755999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011755999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00d8rn Horten at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00d8rn Horten as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00d8rn Horten",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sarpsborg 08 II, but the model still strongly favours \u00d8rn Horten.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1744,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1744,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u00d8rn Horten"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.244,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"p_final": 0.2611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.021,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.036,
"ev": -0.1287,
"implied_prob": 0.756,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.7201
}
},
"edge": 0.2157,
"ev": 0.9236,
"implied_prob": 0.2423,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0242,
"market_prob": 0.215,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.135,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1442,
"implied_prob": 0.785,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7441
},
"p_final": 0.2392,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0046,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0046,
"implied_prob": 0.215,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2392
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2969,
"ev": 1.1756,
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497412,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.1756,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9236,
"implied_prob": 0.2423,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9236,
"implied_prob": 0.2423,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sarpsborg 08 II",
"home": "\u00d8rn Horten"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.426273,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1756,
"implied_prob": 0.2211,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1744,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497412,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T16:59:05.334106+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ørn Horten & Sarpsborg 08 II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
3. Division - Bảng 6 Na Uy — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 50 |
| 2 | Elverum | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Råde | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 | Oppsal | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 33 |
| 6 | Drøbak / Frogn | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 | Sandefjord II | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Ørn Horten | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 |
| 9 | Lyn II | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 10 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 28 |
| 11 | Raelingen | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 |
| 12 | Fram | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 21 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 21 | 79 | 30 | +49 | 50 |
| 2 | Råde | 21 | 70 | 40 | +30 | 39 |
| 3 | Elverum | 21 | 56 | 36 | +20 | 41 |
| 4 | Sandefjord II | 21 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 32 |
| 5 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 21 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 28 |
| 6 | Lyn II | 20 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 30 |
| 7 | Drøbak / Frogn | 21 | 46 | 30 | +16 | 32 |
| 8 | Ørn Horten | 21 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 32 |
| 9 | Fram | 21 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Raelingen | 20 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 28 |
| 11 | Oppsal | 21 | 37 | 31 | +6 | 33 |
| 12 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 21 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 35 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 21 | 25 | 84 | -59 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 21 | 16 | 82 | -66 | 3 |
