AI correctly predicted the Flekkerøy win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Flekkerøy Flekkerøy ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stabæk II | 34.7% | 41.6% | -6.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.3% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Flekkerøy | 35.6% | 35.1% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Stabæk II's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Flekkerøy win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stabæk II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Flekkerøy higher (42.5% vs model 35.6%, 6.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Flekkerøy win 1–2).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stabæk II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Flekkerøy 35.6%
- xG · Stabæk II 1.29 — Flekkerøy 1.31
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 2.14 · Draw 3.82 · Flekkerøy 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 41.6% · Draw 23.3% · Flekkerøy 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 2.14 · Draw 3.82 · Flekkerøy 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 41.6% · Draw 23.3% · Flekkerøy 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Flekkerøy win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Flekkerøy win · Stabæk II 1–2 Flekkerøy
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1056,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0443,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"sort_key": 1788.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.86,
"hero_label": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.1,
"market_team": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7716,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7716,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flekker\u00f8y at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flekker\u00f8y as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +77.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +77.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +77.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+77.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.86,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.86,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7716,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7716,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flekker\u00f8y at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flekker\u00f8y as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +77.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +77.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +77.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+77.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stab\u00e6k II 1.29 xG vs Flekker\u00f8y 1.31 \u2192 Flekker\u00f8y 35.6%",
"Market: Stab\u00e6k II ~35.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Stab\u00e6k II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Flekker\u00f8y with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.86,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"market_prob": 41.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.49,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"market_prob": 35.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 73.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 25.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 26.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.71,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 73.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.71,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 26.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"market_prob_pct": 41.56,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Stab\u00e6k II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stab\u00e6k II\u0027s win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.86,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stab\u00e6k II 1.29 xG vs Flekker\u00f8y 1.31 \u2192 Flekker\u00f8y 35.6%",
"Market: Stab\u00e6k II ~35.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Stab\u00e6k II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Flekker\u00f8y with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.86,
"hero_label": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stab\u00e6k II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Stab\u00e6k II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Stab\u00e6k II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Stab\u00e6k II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Stab\u00e6k II above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Stab\u00e6k II (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Stab\u00e6k II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.86,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stab\u00e6k II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.86,
"edge_pp": -6.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"market_prob_pct": 41.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.37,
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.49,
"edge_pp": 0.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"market_prob_pct": 35.15,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Stab\u00e6k II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stab\u00e6k II (35.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Flekker\u00f8y, Market \u2192 Stab\u00e6k II, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.14,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.14,
"pick_team": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flekkery",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"away_team_id": 6982,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6982.webp",
"away_team_name": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"away_team_public_id": "5cVpQeowMWsgz8",
"away_team_slug": "flekkery",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497069,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"home_team_id": 16231,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16231.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stab\u00e6k II",
"home_team_public_id": "1uo0KziOFsQJXV",
"home_team_slug": "stabk-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "stabk-ii",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 4 Na Uy",
"league_id": 777,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/777.webp",
"league_name": "3. Division - B\u1ea3ng 4 Na Uy",
"league_public_id": "5e2rbbfpODYJ87",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2zUP0auDxgNXxb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.447,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3515,
"draw": 0.2328,
"home": 0.4156
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3535
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2712,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.2328,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3515,
"draw": 0.2328,
"home": 0.4156
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2502
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4039,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4156,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3515,
"draw": 0.2328,
"home": 0.4156
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.388
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0393,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.035,
"ev": 0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.12,
"ev": -0.2568,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0809,
"alpha_yes": 0.178,
"best_no_odd": 3.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1871,
"edge_yes": -0.1871,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5925,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"implied_no": 0.2679,
"implied_yes": 0.7321,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0809,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.2677,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2828
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.178,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.7323,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.699
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.2828,
"p_final_yes": 0.699,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1074,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.23,
"best_under_odd": 3.42,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.23,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.42,
"edge_over": -0.2535,
"edge_under": 0.2535,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4071,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1288,
"ev_under": 0.7716,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.026,
"implied_over": 0.7355,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7355,
"implied_under": 0.2645,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2645,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1074,
"best_odd": 1.23,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.7355,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7083
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2848
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7083,
"p_final_under": 0.2848,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7716,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7716,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7716,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7716,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7716,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Flekker\u00f8y at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Flekker\u00f8y as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +77.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +77.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +77.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+77.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Stab\u00e6k II, but the model still strongly favours Flekker\u00f8y.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Flekker\u00f8y"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.2677,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.2677,
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"p_final": 0.2828
},
"p_final": 0.2828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0333,
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},
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"implied_prob": 0.2679,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0203,
"market_prob": 0.2645,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0272,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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},
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"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497069,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7716,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Flekker\u00f8y",
"home": "Stab\u00e6k II"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5925,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497069,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:55:56.025350+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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3. Division - Bảng 4 Na Uy — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 45 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 40 |
| 3 | Vindbjart | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 38 |
| 4 | Varhaug | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 5 | Flekkerøy | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 | Brodd | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 8 | Stabæk II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 9 | Våg | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Odd II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Haugesund II | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 13 | Hinna | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| 14 | Åkra | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 21 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 45 |
| 2 | Viking II | 21 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 32 |
| 3 | Mandalskameratene | 21 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 40 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 21 | 49 | 24 | +25 | 38 |
| 5 | Flekkerøy | 21 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 36 |
| 6 | Stabæk II | 21 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 27 |
| 7 | Staal Jørpeland | 21 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 23 |
| 8 | Varhaug | 21 | 40 | 30 | +10 | 36 |
| 9 | Brodd | 21 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 27 |
| 10 | Haugesund II | 20 | 37 | 55 | -18 | 22 |
| 11 | Odd II | 21 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 23 |
| 12 | Hinna | 20 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 20 |
| 13 | Våg | 21 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 26 |
| 14 | Åkra | 21 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 15 |
