The model missed the final outcome (Inter Turku win 0–1).
The model had projected VPS at 64.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 VPS Inter Turku ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-0 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS | 64.5% | 34.9% | +29.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 18.4% | 28.4% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Inter Turku | 17.1% | 36.6% | -19.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates VPS's win probability at 64.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.9%, a difference of 29.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Inter Turku win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on VPS by 29.6 percentage points (34.9% vs model 64.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · VPS 64.5% · Draw 18.4% · Inter Turku 17.1%
- xG · VPS 2.74 — Inter Turku 1.42
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · VPS 2.77 · Draw 3.40 · Inter Turku 2.64
- Implied 1X2 · VPS 34.9% · Draw 28.4% · Inter Turku 36.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · VPS 2.77 · Draw 3.40 · Inter Turku 2.64
- Implied 1X2 · VPS 34.9% · Draw 28.4% · Inter Turku 36.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter Turku win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
36/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (103%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
10/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inter Turku win · VPS 0–1 Inter Turku
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a31103c393ba5aed560be6a0606bc37053a1dcdb2565ebad2b19b62eac4eb3f6",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.1711,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.283,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.717,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.184,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.85,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.43,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.55,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.74,
"home_win_prob": 0.6449,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.784,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.216
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Inter Turku",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : VPS",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Inter Turku"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "VPS",
"confidence": 64.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : VPS",
"edge": 0.2958,
"edge_gap": 0.4609,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3492,
"model_prob": 0.645,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.1,
"draw": 18.4,
"home": 64.5
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "VPS"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.77
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.77,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "VPS Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.86,
"market_odds": 2.77,
"model_odds": 1.55,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 28.4,
"value_pct": 78.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 17,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 93.5,
"no_prob": 28.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 71.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 71.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 2.74,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 6.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 5.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 5.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "VPS or Draw",
"prob": 82.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "VPS or Inter Turku",
"prob": 81.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Inter Turku",
"prob": 35.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "VPS or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.1,
"draw_pct": 18.4,
"home_pct": 64.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "VPS"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.16,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 78.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 78.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 4.16,
"under_prob": 21.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 78.7,
"implied_prob": 36.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "VPS Win",
"model_prob": 64.5,
"odds": 2.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Inter Turku",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.64,
"draw": 28.45,
"home": 34.92
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 11:59:15",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 11:29:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "VPS",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.92,
"gap_pp": 29.58,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 64.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.45,
"gap_pp": -10.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.64,
"gap_pp": -19.55,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 17.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.8,
"gap_pp": 31.6,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 78.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.2,
"gap_pp": -31.6,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 21.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.77,
"early": 2.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.92,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.64,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 31.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
}
},
"home_xg": 2.74,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 2.7,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home VPS",
"edge": 27.5,
"ev": 74.2,
"probability": 64.5
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1723,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.2,
"text": "+17.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1723,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.2,
"text": "+17.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.645,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7867,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "VPS",
"sort_key": 10305.07,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 78.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 21.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 28.3,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 71.7
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 29.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.57,
"hero_label": "VPS",
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"market_team": "Inter Turku",
"model_prob_pct": 64.5,
"model_team": "VPS",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7866,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 10,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees VPS at 64.5% vs market 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies VPS as the stronger side (64.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VPS",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side VPS \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1495746 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "10 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 36,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"consensus_ev_display": "+17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.645,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7867,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 103.0,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 103% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.32"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (30 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (103%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 36,
"stars": 1,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 29.57,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 29.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 103.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.74,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.74,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.74 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +103%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7866,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 10,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees VPS at 64.5% vs market 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies VPS as the stronger side (64.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VPS",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side VPS \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1495746 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "10 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 36,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"consensus_ev_display": "+17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.645,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7867,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 103.0,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 103% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.32"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: VPS 2.74 xG vs Inter Turku 1.42 \u2192 VPS 64.5%",
"Market: Inter Turku ~34.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours VPS, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 29.57,
"fair_prob": 64.49,
"label": "VPS",
"market_prob": 34.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.05,
"fair_prob": 18.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.53,
"fair_prob": 17.11,
"label": "Inter Turku",
"market_prob": 36.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 78.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 71.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 29.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "VPS",
"market_prob_pct": 34.92,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates VPS\u0027s win probability at 64.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 34.9%, a difference of 29.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 29.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "VPS",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 29.6,
"model_prob_pct": 64.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 36,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: VPS 2.74 xG vs Inter Turku 1.42 \u2192 VPS 64.5%",
"Market: Inter Turku ~34.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours VPS, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 29.57,
"hero_label": "VPS",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 29.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 46.1 pp (at 64.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 46.1,
"max_prob_pct": 64.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "VPS",
"largest_gap_pp": 29.6,
"lead": "The model rates VPS considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 29.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 29.57,
"edge_pp": 29.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "VPS",
"market_prob_pct": 34.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.05,
"edge_pp": -10.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.53,
"edge_pp": -19.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Inter Turku",
"market_prob_pct": 36.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Inter Turku (34.9%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.1%, 6/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 VPS, Market \u2192 Inter Turku, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.1,
"closing_odds": 2.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.1,
"entry_odds": 2.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "6/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.51 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.25",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.51 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 15m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.4,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/14",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 29.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Inter Turku",
"away_team_id": 1164,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1164.webp",
"away_team_name": "Inter Turku",
"away_team_slug": "inter-turku",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_display_name": "Finland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_id": 55,
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1495746,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_display_name": "VPS",
"home_team_id": 650,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/650.webp",
"home_team_name": "VPS",
"home_team_slug": "vps",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_country_display": "Finland",
"league_display_name": "Veikkausliiga",
"league_id": 244,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
"league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-02 12:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Vaasa",
"venue_name": "Lemonsoft Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3181,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0622,
"ev": -0.1969,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3664,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.3492
},
"model_prob": 0.1709,
"p_final": 0.3042
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2548,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0256,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.2845,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3664,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.3492
},
"model_prob": 0.1841,
"p_final": 0.2589
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2503,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0741,
"ev": 0.1723,
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3664,
"draw": 0.2845,
"home": 0.3492
},
"model_prob": 0.645,
"p_final": 0.4232
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": -0.2079,
"ev": -0.5488,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.1709
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": -0.11,
"ev": -0.374,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.1841
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": 0.284,
"ev": 0.7866,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.645
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.16,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7866,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1723,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.5,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 29.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7866,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 10,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees VPS at 64.5% vs market 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies VPS as the stronger side (64.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 29.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VPS",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side VPS \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1495746 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +17.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "10 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours VPS.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 36,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"consensus_ev_display": "+17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.645,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7867,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 103.0,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 103% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.32"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.717,
"draw_prob": 0.1841,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.645,
"over_prob": 0.784,
"total_xg": 4.16,
"under_prob": 0.216,
"xg_diff": 1.32
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0741,
"ev": 0.1723,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.645,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "VPS"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.717,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.784,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495746,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1723,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1709,
"draw": 0.1841,
"home": 0.645
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Inter Turku",
"home": "VPS"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.13336,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1723,
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.645,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "VPS",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1723,
"consensus_ev_display": "+17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3492,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.645,
"raw_edge_display": "+29.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7867,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495746,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-02T11:59:17.740883+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho VPS & Inter Turku!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Veikkausliiga — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 43 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 37 |
| 3 | Gnistan | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 4 | Ilves | 22 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
| 5 | Inter Turku | 22 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 |
| 7 | Turku PS | 22 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 |
| 8 | Lahti | 22 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 |
| 9 | AC Oulu | 22 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilves | 22 | 4.2 | 1.7 | +2.5 | 25 |
| 2 | AC Oulu | 22 | 2.7 | 2.2 | +0.5 | 34 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 37 |
| 4 | KuPS | 22 | 2.3 | 2.0 | +0.3 | 43 |
| 5 | SJK | 22 | 2.5 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 6 | Lahti | 22 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 7 | VPS | 22 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 33 |
| 8 | Mariehamn | 22 | 2.2 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 14 |
| 9 | Turku PS | 22 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 31 |
| 10 | FF Jaro | 22 | 2.4 | 4.6 | -2.2 | 15 |
| 11 | Inter Turku | 22 | — | — | — | 42 |
| 12 | Gnistan | 22 | — | — | — | 36 |
