The model missed the final outcome (IFK Göteborg win 1–4).
The model had projected Mjällby AIF at 50.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Mjällby AIF IFK Göteborg ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF | 50.4% | 41.0% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.2% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| IFK Göteborg | 24.7% | 31.8% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Mjällby AIF's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 41.0%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là IFK Göteborg win 1–4.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mjällby AIF.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.21) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Mjällby AIF; match finished IFK Göteborg
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mjällby AIF by 9.4 percentage points (41.0% vs model 50.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mjällby AIF 50.5% · Draw 24.9% · IFK Göteborg 24.7%
- xG · Mjällby AIF 1.91 — IFK Göteborg 1.30
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mjällby AIF 2.34 · Draw 3.52 · IFK Göteborg 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Mjällby AIF 41.0% · Draw 27.2% · IFK Göteborg 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mjällby AIF 2.34 · Draw 3.52 · IFK Göteborg 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Mjällby AIF 41.0% · Draw 27.2% · IFK Göteborg 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result IFK Göteborg win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
53/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.34
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
IFK Göteborg win · Mjällby AIF 1–4 IFK Göteborg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0448,
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{
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"edge": 0.0201,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0128,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0416,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1559,
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"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0255,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
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"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0255,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 36.7,
"sort_key": 5220.4,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"alert_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.4,
"hero_label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"market_prob_pct": 41.0,
"market_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"model_prob_pct": 50.4,
"model_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1196,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mj\u00e4llby AIF at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mj\u00e4llby AIF as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mj\u00e4llby AIF \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494270 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5047,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.61"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.61
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.4,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.91,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +41%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"steam_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1196,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mj\u00e4llby AIF at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mj\u00e4llby AIF as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mj\u00e4llby AIF \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494270 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5047,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.61"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.61
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mj\u00e4llby AIF 1.91 xG vs IFK G\u00f6teborg 1.30 \u2192 Mj\u00e4llby AIF 50.4%",
"Market: Mj\u00e4llby AIF ~41.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Mj\u00e4llby AIF odds \u2191 +17.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.4,
"fair_prob": 50.39,
"label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"market_prob": 40.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.36,
"fair_prob": 24.89,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.04,
"fair_prob": 24.72,
"label": "IFK G\u00f6teborg",
"market_prob": 31.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.86,
"fair_prob": 62.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.86,
"fair_prob": 37.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.24,
"fair_prob": 63.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.24,
"fair_prob": 36.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"market_prob_pct": 40.99,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Mj\u00e4llby AIF\u0027s win probability at 50.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 41.0%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.4,
"model_prob_pct": 50.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mj\u00e4llby AIF 1.91 xG vs IFK G\u00f6teborg 1.30 \u2192 Mj\u00e4llby AIF 50.4%",
"Market: Mj\u00e4llby AIF ~41.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Mj\u00e4llby AIF odds \u2191 +17.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.4,
"hero_label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF odds lengthened \u2191 +17.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"Recent line movement on Mj\u00e4llby AIF (\u2191 +17.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 25.5 pp (at 50.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 25.5,
"max_prob_pct": 50.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.4,
"lead": "The model rates Mj\u00e4llby AIF considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.4,
"edge_pp": 9.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"market_prob_pct": 40.99,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.36,
"edge_pp": -2.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.89,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.25,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.04,
"edge_pp": -7.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "IFK G\u00f6teborg",
"market_prob_pct": 31.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mj\u00e4llby AIF (41.0%).",
"However, Mj\u00e4llby AIF has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.5%, 10/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mj\u00e4llby AIF, Market \u2192 Mj\u00e4llby AIF, while Mj\u00e4llby AIF odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
"closing_odds": 2.34,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
"entry_odds": 2.34,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/13 books lengthened Mj\u00e4llby AIF together (17.5% drift, score 56) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.17",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.35 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 55m",
"pick_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.34,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/13 sportsbooks on Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ifk-goteborg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "IFK G\u00f6teborg",
"away_team_id": 366,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/366.webp",
"away_team_name": "IFK G\u00f6teborg",
"away_team_public_id": "3mOYC7f1ZOMtji",
"away_team_slug": "ifk-goteborg",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1494270,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"home_team_id": 2240,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2240.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"home_team_public_id": "3iUd89vPq660oL",
"home_team_slug": "mjallby-aif",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mjallby-aif",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Allsvenskan",
"league_id": 113,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/113.webp",
"league_name": "Allsvenskan",
"league_public_id": "5vvWnQ0IRiBpuf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 17:00:00",
"public_id": "36PoUQU9ObZNZF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Hallevik",
"venue_name": "Strandvallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2681,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.3176,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3176,
"draw": 0.2725,
"home": 0.4099
},
"model_prob": 0.2467,
"p_final": 0.2986
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2892,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3176,
"draw": 0.2725,
"home": 0.4099
},
"model_prob": 0.2486,
"p_final": 0.2656
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.386,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0366,
"ev": 0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3176,
"draw": 0.2725,
"home": 0.4099
},
"model_prob": 0.5047,
"p_final": 0.4465
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0844,
"ev": -0.2549,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.2467
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": -0.0355,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.2486
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0773,
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.5047
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2702,
"alpha_yes": 0.3715,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0524,
"edge_yes": 0.0524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1559,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1058,
"ev_yes": 0.0255,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0416,
"implied_no": 0.4194,
"implied_yes": 0.5806,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2702,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.367,
"p_final": 0.4064
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3715,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.633,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4064,
"p_final_yes": 0.599,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3504,
"alpha_under": 0.3185,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.07,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": 0.0886,
"edge_under": -0.0886,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1196,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0069,
"ev_under": -0.2175,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1185,
"implied_over": 0.5334,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5332,
"implied_under": 0.4666,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4668,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3504,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0311,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.5332,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"p_final": 0.5643
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3185,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.4668,
"model_prob": 0.378,
"p_final": 0.4385
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5643,
"p_final_under": 0.4385,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.21,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1196,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1196,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1196,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mj\u00e4llby AIF at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mj\u00e4llby AIF as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mj\u00e4llby AIF \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494270 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mj\u00e4llby AIF, but the model still strongly favours Mj\u00e4llby AIF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5047,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.61"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.61
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.633,
"draw_prob": 0.2486,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5047,
"over_prob": 0.622,
"total_xg": 3.21,
"under_prob": 0.378,
"xg_diff": 0.61
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0366,
"ev": 0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5047,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3715,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.5789,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.633,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2702,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.367,
"p_final": 0.4064
},
"p_final": 0.599,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0416,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3715,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.633,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.5806,
"model_prob": 0.633,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3504,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0311,
"market_prob": 0.5332,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3504,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": 0.0311,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.5332,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"p_final": 0.5643
},
"p_final": 0.5643,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0069,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3185,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.4668,
"model_prob": 0.378,
"p_final": 0.4385
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0886,
"ev": 0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5334,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1494270,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1196,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2467,
"draw": 0.2486,
"home": 0.5047
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "IFK G\u00f6teborg",
"home": "Mj\u00e4llby AIF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.092989,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5334,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0448,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5047,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.181,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1494270,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T16:59:32.850437+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Mjällby AIF & IFK Göteborg!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Allsvenskan — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IK Sirius | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammarby IF | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 3 | Djurgårdens IF | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 41 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 5 | BK Häcken | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Västerås SK FK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Malmö FF | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 10 | GAIS | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 15 | Örgryte IS | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstads BK | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IK Sirius | 22 | 52 | 28 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammarby IF | 22 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 43 |
| 3 | Djurgårdens IF | 22 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 41 |
| 4 | BK Häcken | 22 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 36 |
| 5 | Malmö FF | 22 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 33 |
| 6 | Västerås SK FK | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 35 |
| 7 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 22 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | GAIS | 22 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 22 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
| 13 | Örgryte IS | 22 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 15 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 19 |
| 15 | Degerfors IF | 22 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstads BK | 22 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalmar FF | 22 | 1.6 | 0.5 | +1.1 | 19 |
| 2 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 32 |
| 3 | Malmö FF | 22 | 1.3 | 0.6 | +0.7 | 33 |
| 4 | AIK Stockholm | 22 | 3.8 | 3.2 | +0.6 | 33 |
| 5 | Djurgårdens IF | 22 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 41 |
| 6 | Mjällby AIF | 22 | 2.8 | 5.1 | -2.3 | 22 |
| 7 | IK Sirius | 22 | — | — | — | 51 |
| 8 | Hammarby IF | 22 | — | — | — | 43 |
| 9 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | — | — | — | 37 |
| 10 | BK Häcken | 22 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 11 | Västerås SK FK | 22 | — | — | — | 35 |
| 12 | GAIS | 22 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 13 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | — | — | — | 19 |
| 15 | Örgryte IS | 22 | — | — | — | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstads BK | 22 | — | — | — | 14 |
