AI correctly predicted the One Knoxville win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 One Knoxville One Knoxville ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Wayne | 31.0% | 40.0% | -8.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.2% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| One Knoxville | 39.5% | 34.8% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Fort Wayne's win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (One Knoxville win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Fort Wayne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced One Knoxville higher (48.4% vs model 39.5%, 8.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (One Knoxville win 2–3).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fort Wayne 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · One Knoxville 39.5%
- xG · Fort Wayne 1.21 — One Knoxville 1.39
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fort Wayne 2.29 · Draw 3.63 · One Knoxville 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Fort Wayne 40.0% · Draw 25.2% · One Knoxville 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fort Wayne 2.29 · Draw 3.63 · One Knoxville 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Fort Wayne 40.0% · Draw 25.2% · One Knoxville 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result One Knoxville win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
19/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.29
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
One Knoxville win · Fort Wayne 2–3 One Knoxville
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2a8e779512b39f2472109d9fde908e2f00d23b84fed1cca342cb411b0330d53f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or One Knoxville",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "One Knoxville"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "One Knoxville",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0469,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.63
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.63,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "One Knoxville Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.87,
"market_odds": 2.63,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 1.5,
"value_pct": 4.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Fort Wayne or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Fort Wayne or One Knoxville",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or One Knoxville",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Fort Wayne or One Knoxville",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "One Knoxville"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 7.1,
"implied_prob": 27.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.63
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "One Knoxville",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.81,
"draw": 25.22,
"home": 39.97
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 23:29:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 22:59:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Fort Wayne",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.97,
"gap_pp": -8.94,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.22,
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"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4541,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5316
},
"p_final": 0.4671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0464,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.013,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1033,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1033,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10242.97,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0077,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4206,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0854,
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},
"p_final": 0.4284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0243,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0854,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1312,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.033,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.033,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "One Knoxville",
"sort_key": 1791.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"alert_team": "One Knoxville",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.94,
"hero_label": "Fort Wayne",
"market_prob_pct": 34.8,
"market_team": "Fort Wayne",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "One Knoxville",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates One Knoxville at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies One Knoxville as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "One Knoxville",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.033,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.94,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"steam_team": "One Knoxville",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates One Knoxville at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies One Knoxville as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "One Knoxville",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.033,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fort Wayne 1.21 xG vs One Knoxville 1.39 \u2192 One Knoxville 39.5%",
"Market: Fort Wayne ~34.8% implied",
"Market Steam: One Knoxville \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean One Knoxville with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.94,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Fort Wayne",
"market_prob": 39.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.65,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "One Knoxville",
"market_prob": 34.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.26,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.26,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Fort Wayne",
"market_prob_pct": 39.97,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "One Knoxville"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Fort Wayne\u0027s win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "One Knoxville",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "One Knoxville \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Fort Wayne 1.21 xG vs One Knoxville 1.39 \u2192 One Knoxville 39.5%",
"Market: Fort Wayne ~34.8% implied",
"Market Steam: One Knoxville \u2193 -13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean One Knoxville with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.94,
"hero_label": "Fort Wayne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "One Knoxville odds shortened \u2193 -13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on One Knoxville, with odds shortening by 13.3%. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Fort Wayne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on One Knoxville \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Fort Wayne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on One Knoxville, with odds shortening by 13.3%. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on One Knoxville \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Fort Wayne above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, One Knoxville has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.3%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Fort Wayne",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Fort Wayne higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.94,
"edge_pp": -8.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fort Wayne",
"market_prob_pct": 39.97,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.29,
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.65,
"edge_pp": 4.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "One Knoxville",
"market_prob_pct": 34.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on One Knoxville \u2014 odds shortened by 13.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fort Wayne (34.8%).",
"One Knoxville has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -13.3%, 2/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 One Knoxville, Market \u2192 Fort Wayne, Recent sharp money \u2192 One Knoxville.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.67,
"closing_odds": 2.29,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.67,
"entry_odds": 2.29,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on One Knoxville (13.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.80",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 44m",
"pick_team": "One Knoxville",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.63,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "One Knoxville",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "One Knoxville",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "One Knoxville",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "One Knoxville",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "one-knoxville",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "One Knoxville",
"away_team_id": 18905,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18905.webp",
"away_team_name": "One Knoxville",
"away_team_public_id": "2itrhiXLt5Fi1P",
"away_team_slug": "one-knoxville",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493996,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Fort Wayne",
"home_team_id": 16679,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16679.webp",
"home_team_name": "Fort Wayne",
"home_team_public_id": "1tnvrEoj3r5Nn3",
"home_team_slug": "fort-wayne",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fort-wayne",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL League One",
"league_id": 489,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
"league_name": "USL League One",
"league_public_id": "4MBWLKxzdtvygS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 23:30:00",
"public_id": "1iTgyXQTMlKM26",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Ruoff Mortgage Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4184,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3481,
"draw": 0.2522,
"home": 0.3997
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3677
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2808,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.2522,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3481,
"draw": 0.2522,
"home": 0.3997
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2641
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3896,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0348,
"ev": -0.1644,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3481,
"draw": 0.2522,
"home": 0.3997
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3649
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.63,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": 0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": 0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": -0.1264,
"ev": -0.2894,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2127,
"alpha_yes": 0.234,
"best_no_odd": 2.24,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0373,
"edge_yes": -0.0373,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0854,
"ev_yes": -0.1312,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1152,
"implied_no": 0.4197,
"implied_yes": 0.5803,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0854,
"implied_prob": 0.4206,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5709
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4284,
"p_final_yes": 0.5709,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2238,
"alpha_under": 0.2034,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": -0.0626,
"edge_under": 0.0626,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1068,
"ev_under": 0.1033,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"implied_over": 0.5446,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5459,
"implied_under": 0.4554,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4541,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5316
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4541,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4671
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5316,
"p_final_under": 0.4671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates One Knoxville at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies One Knoxville as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "One Knoxville",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (One Knoxville).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.033,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "One Knoxville"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.4206,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0854,
"implied_prob": 0.4206,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4284
},
"p_final": 0.4284,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0854,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5709
}
},
"edge": 0.0373,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4197,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.4541,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5316
},
"p_final": 0.4671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4541,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4671
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0626,
"ev": 0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493996,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1033,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "One Knoxville",
"home": "Fort Wayne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.037457,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1033,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.033,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493996,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T23:29:13.982220+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
USL League One — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 57 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 5 | Boise | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 43 |
| 7 | Spokane Velocity | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 |
| 11 | Alta | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 12 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| 13 | Westchester SC | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 29 |
| 14 | Naples | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 23 |
| 16 | NY Cosmos | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 64 | 40 | +24 | 57 |
| 2 | Forward Madison | 28 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 51 |
| 3 | Union Omaha | 28 | 50 | 30 | +20 | 58 |
| 4 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 26 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
| 5 | Westchester SC | 27 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 29 |
| 6 | One Knoxville | 27 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 47 |
| 7 | Boise | 27 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 38 |
| 9 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 30 |
| 10 | Spokane Velocity | 25 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 43 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 33 |
| 12 | Alta | 28 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | NY Cosmos | 26 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 22 |
| 14 | Corpus Christi | 26 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 15 | Naples | 26 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 28 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 26 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 26 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
