The model missed the final outcome (Orange County SC win 1–0).
The model had projected Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Orange County SC ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 33.3% | 31.8% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 37.1% | 37.7% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Orange County SC win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Orange County SC win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Orange County SC 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.0%
- xG · Orange County SC 1.26 — Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.34
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Orange County SC 3.00 · Draw 3.12 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Orange County SC 31.8% · Draw 30.6% · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Orange County SC 3.00 · Draw 3.12 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Orange County SC 31.8% · Draw 30.6% · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Orange County SC win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
92/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Orange County SC win · Orange County SC 1–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": -0.0062,
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"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3768,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.6,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"overround": 4.9,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
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"prob": 10.0
},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Orange County SC or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Orange County SC or Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": -6.3,
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"model_prob": 37.0,
"odds": 2.53
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 30.55,
"home": 31.77
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 01:59:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 01:29:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Orange County SC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": 1.57,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.55,
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.9,
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},
{
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"movement": [
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{
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.1875,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0132,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
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"over": {
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"p_final": 0.4116
},
"p_final": 0.4116,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1809,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 18.1,
"text": "+18.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1919,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": -19.2,
"text": "-19.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1809,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10312.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.015,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2197,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5134
},
"p_final": 0.4851,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0628,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0541,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.09,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10081.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0538,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.4,
"text": "-5.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.033,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"sort_key": 1791.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"alert_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.54,
"hero_label": "Orange County SC",
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"market_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pittsburgh Riverhounds as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.54,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"steam_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pittsburgh Riverhounds as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orange County SC 1.26 xG vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.34 \u2192 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.1%",
"Market: Pittsburgh Riverhounds ~37.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Pittsburgh Riverhounds \u2193 -2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pittsburgh Riverhounds with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.54,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Orange County SC",
"market_prob": 31.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.92,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.62,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"market_prob": 37.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.61,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.61,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.61,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.61,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Orange County SC",
"market_prob_pct": 31.77,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orange County SC 1.26 xG vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.34 \u2192 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.1%",
"Market: Pittsburgh Riverhounds ~37.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Pittsburgh Riverhounds \u2193 -2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pittsburgh Riverhounds with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.54,
"hero_label": "Orange County SC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds odds shortened \u2193 -2.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Pittsburgh Riverhounds, with odds shortening by 2.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Pittsburgh Riverhounds, with odds shortening by 2.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Pittsburgh Riverhounds has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.2%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Orange County SC",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.54,
"edge_pp": 1.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Orange County SC",
"market_prob_pct": 31.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.92,
"edge_pp": -0.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.62,
"edge_pp": -0.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"market_prob_pct": 37.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pittsburgh Riverhounds (37.7%).",
"Pittsburgh Riverhounds has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.2%, 1/8).",
"Pittsburgh Riverhounds \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.33,
"closing_odds": 3.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.33,
"entry_odds": 3.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Pittsburgh Riverhounds (swing 2.53 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.25) \u2014 net 2.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.53",
"2.39",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.53 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.53,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,14.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_team_name": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pittsburgh-riverhounds",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"away_team_id": 4010,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4010.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"away_team_public_id": "0DZoead1ZexQgq",
"away_team_slug": "pittsburgh-riverhounds",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493713,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Orange County SC",
"home_team_id": 4007,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4007.webp",
"home_team_name": "Orange County SC",
"home_team_public_id": "4vybLH6HtqbYt3",
"home_team_slug": "orange-county-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "orange-county-sc",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL Championship",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_public_id": "3mwK4u858hcLji",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 02:00:00",
"public_id": "2uxHIGOS9DS5yD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Championship Soccer Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4458,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3768,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.3177
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.374
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2957,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3768,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.3177
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3027
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3768,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.3177
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3223
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": 0.0004,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2197,
"alpha_yes": 0.1997,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0761,
"edge_yes": 0.0761,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1118,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0541,
"implied_no": 0.5311,
"implied_yes": 0.4689,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2197,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5134
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4851
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5134,
"p_final_yes": 0.4851,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1574,
"alpha_under": 0.2165,
"best_over_odd": 2.45,
"best_under_odd": 1.56,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.0861,
"edge_under": -0.0861,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1809,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0492,
"ev_under": -0.1919,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1073,
"implied_over": 0.3959,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3984,
"implied_under": 0.6041,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6016,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4116
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1073,
"implied_prob": 0.6016,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5835
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4116,
"p_final_under": 0.5835,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1809,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1809,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pittsburgh Riverhounds as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pittsburgh Riverhounds).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2197,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5134
},
"p_final": 0.4851,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0541,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1997,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4851
}
},
"edge": 0.0761,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4689,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.3984,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4116
},
"p_final": 0.4116,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0492,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1073,
"implied_prob": 0.6016,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5835
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0861,
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3959,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493713,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1809,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4689,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4689,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pittsburgh Riverhounds",
"home": "Orange County SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.061036,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1809,
"implied_prob": 0.3959,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0538,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0626,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493713,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T01:59:34.458429+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
USL Championship — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 25 | 50 | 31 | +19 | 43 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 25 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 51 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 26 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 |
| 4 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 23 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 23 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 32 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Miami FC | 26 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 30 |
| 8 | Loudoun United | 25 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 14 |
| 10 | Detroit City | 25 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 41 |
| 11 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 38 |
| 13 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 14 | Orange County SC | 16 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 28 |
| 15 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 19 |
| 16 | Brooklyn | 25 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 18 |
| 17 | Lexington | 15 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 18 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 20 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 |
| 21 | San Antonio | 16 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 25 |
| 22 | New Mexico United | 14 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 23 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 22 |
| 24 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 15 |
