AI correctly predicted the Oakland Roots win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 34.7% | 44.4% | -9.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.6% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Oakland Roots | 35.6% | 31.0% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Indy Eleven's win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Oakland Roots win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Indy Eleven. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Oakland Roots higher (45.3% vs model 35.6%, 9.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Oakland Roots win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Indy Eleven 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Oakland Roots 35.6%
- xG · Indy Eleven 1.29 — Oakland Roots 1.31
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Indy Eleven 2.14 · Draw 3.87 · Oakland Roots 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Indy Eleven 44.4% · Draw 24.6% · Oakland Roots 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Indy Eleven 2.14 · Draw 3.87 · Oakland Roots 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Indy Eleven 44.4% · Draw 24.6% · Oakland Roots 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Oakland Roots win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Oakland Roots win · Indy Eleven 0–1 Oakland Roots
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8b303fc3a723136ffbbf0f311a417b2bc697427eab284530a293ea0eb1092034",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Indy Eleven or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Indy Eleven"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Oakland Roots",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0461,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3098,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.07
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.07,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Oakland Roots Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.23,
"market_odds": 3.07,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 3.0,
"value_pct": 9.3,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Indy Eleven or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Indy Eleven or Oakland Roots",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Oakland Roots",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Indy Eleven or Oakland Roots",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Oakland Roots"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.6,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Oakland Roots",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.98,
"draw": 24.58,
"home": 44.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 20:59:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 20:29:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Indy Eleven",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"gap_pp": -9.72,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.58,
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.98,
"gap_pp": 4.61,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.07,
"gap_pp": -7.87,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.93,
"gap_pp": 7.87,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.14,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.87,
"early": 3.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.58,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.07,
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"implied_closing_pct": 30.98,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
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"implied_closing_pct": 56.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.3,
"ev": -0.0928,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"p_final": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0567,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0058,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Oakland Roots",
"sort_key": 5204.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"alert_team": "Indy Eleven",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.74,
"hero_label": "Indy Eleven",
"market_prob_pct": 31.0,
"market_team": "Indy Eleven",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Oakland Roots",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1486,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oakland Roots at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oakland Roots as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oakland Roots",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Oakland Roots \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493701 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0094,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.74,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"steam_team": "Indy Eleven",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1486,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oakland Roots at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oakland Roots as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oakland Roots",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Oakland Roots \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493701 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0094,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Indy Eleven 1.29 xG vs Oakland Roots 1.31 \u2192 Oakland Roots 35.6%",
"Market: Indy Eleven ~31.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Indy Eleven \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Oakland Roots, but sharp money moved toward Indy Eleven.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.74,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Indy Eleven",
"market_prob": 44.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.66,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Oakland Roots",
"market_prob": 30.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.69,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.69,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Indy Eleven",
"market_prob_pct": 44.44,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Indy Eleven"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Indy Eleven\u0027s win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Oakland Roots",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Indy Eleven 1.29 xG vs Oakland Roots 1.31 \u2192 Oakland Roots 35.6%",
"Market: Indy Eleven ~31.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Indy Eleven \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Oakland Roots, but sharp money moved toward Indy Eleven.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.74,
"hero_label": "Indy Eleven",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Indy Eleven odds shortened \u2193 -3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Indy Eleven. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Indy Eleven. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Indy Eleven above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Indy Eleven (\u2193 -3.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Indy Eleven",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Indy Eleven higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.74,
"edge_pp": -9.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Indy Eleven",
"market_prob_pct": 44.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.66,
"edge_pp": 4.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Oakland Roots",
"market_prob_pct": 30.98,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Indy Eleven (31.0%).",
"Indy Eleven has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.1%, 2/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Oakland Roots, Market \u2192 Indy Eleven, Recent sharp money \u2192 Indy Eleven.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Indy Eleven (swing 1.98 \u2192 1.84 \u2192 1.85) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.14",
"2.00",
"1.85"
],
"display": "1.98 \u2192 1.84 \u2192 1.85",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 3m",
"pick_team": "Indy Eleven",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.98"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.14,
1.85
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,14.3 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Indy Eleven",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved toward Indy Eleven while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Indy Eleven",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Indy Eleven",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Indy Eleven",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "oakland-roots",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Oakland Roots",
"away_team_id": 10874,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10874.webp",
"away_team_name": "Oakland Roots",
"away_team_public_id": "3i7wij6Zn5FIdl",
"away_team_slug": "oakland-roots",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493701,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Indy Eleven",
"home_team_id": 3996,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3996.webp",
"home_team_name": "Indy Eleven",
"home_team_public_id": "0M6Auahz9TCquA",
"home_team_slug": "indy-eleven",
"ht.home_team_slug": "indy-eleven",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL Championship",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_public_id": "3mwK4u858hcLji",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 21:00:00",
"public_id": "5iwTvtxA4lfF3x",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Michael A. Carroll Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2792,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0094,
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3098,
"draw": 0.2458,
"home": 0.4444
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3227
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.277,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": 0.0058,
"implied_prob": 0.2458,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3098,
"draw": 0.2458,
"home": 0.4444
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2599
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3844,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0373,
"ev": -0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3098,
"draw": 0.2458,
"home": 0.4444
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4071
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": 0.0302,
"ev": 0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": 0.1486,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.12,
"ev": -0.2568,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.237,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0269,
"edge_yes": -0.0269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0695,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0934,
"implied_no": 0.4281,
"implied_yes": 0.5719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4328,
"p_final_yes": 0.5666,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2223,
"alpha_under": 0.2021,
"best_over_odd": 1.72,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.04,
"edge_over": -0.069,
"edge_under": 0.069,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1069,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"implied_over": 0.551,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5499,
"implied_under": 0.449,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4501,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5348,
"p_final_under": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1486,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1486,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oakland Roots at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oakland Roots as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oakland Roots",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Oakland Roots \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493701 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Indy Eleven, but the model still strongly favours Oakland Roots.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0094,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0094,
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Oakland Roots"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.4501,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5348
},
"p_final": 0.4639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2021,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.069,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493701,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Oakland Roots",
"home": "Indy Eleven"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0094,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493701,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T20:59:20.271721+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Indy Eleven & Oakland Roots!
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Đăng ký ngay
USL Championship — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 25 | 50 | 31 | +19 | 43 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 25 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 51 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 26 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 |
| 4 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 23 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 23 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 32 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Miami FC | 26 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 30 |
| 8 | Loudoun United | 25 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 14 |
| 10 | Detroit City | 25 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 41 |
| 11 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 38 |
| 13 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 14 | Orange County SC | 16 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 28 |
| 15 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 19 |
| 16 | Brooklyn | 25 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 18 |
| 17 | Lexington | 15 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 18 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 20 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 |
| 21 | San Antonio | 16 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 25 |
| 22 | New Mexico United | 14 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 23 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 22 |
| 24 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 15 |
