The model missed the final outcome (River Plate win 3–1).
The model had projected Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Independiente Rivadavia River Plate ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 30.0% | 55.7% | -25.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.0% | 27.9% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 38.0% | 16.5% | +21.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates River Plate's win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.0%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là River Plate win 3–1.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Independiente Rivadavia by 25.7 percentage points (63.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · River Plate 30.0% · Draw 31.9% · Independiente Rivadavia 38.0%
- xG · River Plate 1.05 — Independiente Rivadavia 1.21
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · River Plate 1.70 · Draw 3.40 · Independiente Rivadavia 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · River Plate 55.7% · Draw 27.9% · Independiente Rivadavia 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · River Plate 1.70 · Draw 3.40 · Independiente Rivadavia 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · River Plate 55.7% · Draw 27.9% · Independiente Rivadavia 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result River Plate win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
River Plate win · River Plate 3–1 Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Independiente Rivadavia",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"percent_home": "10%",
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},
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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}
],
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
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{
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{
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},
{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 22:14:02",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 21:44:02",
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
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"home_xg": 1.05,
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"edge": 19.8,
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"market_cards": [
{
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"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
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"ev": 0.1145,
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%",
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},
{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1216,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0406,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0406,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 52.6,
"sort_key": 10036.54,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 47.3
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5954,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"p_final": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.5954,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6023
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0372,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0167,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0167,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 39.3,
"sort_key": 1795.825,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 60.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"alert_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.66,
"hero_label": "River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 16.5,
"market_team": "River Plate",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011862999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 25.66,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 25.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.05,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.21,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.05 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"steam_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011862999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: River Plate 1.05 xG vs Independiente Rivadavia 1.21 \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia 38.0%",
"Market: River Plate ~16.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Rivadavia, but the market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -25.66,
"fair_prob": 30.03,
"label": "River Plate",
"market_prob": 55.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob": 31.99,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.52,
"fair_prob": 37.98,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob": 16.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.31,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob": 60.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob": 47.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.18,
"fair_prob": 52.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -25.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 55.69,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates River Plate\u0027s win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.0%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 25.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: River Plate 1.05 xG vs Independiente Rivadavia 1.21 \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia 38.0%",
"Market: River Plate ~16.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Rivadavia, but the market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.66,
"hero_label": "River Plate",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Independiente Rivadavia odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.0 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.0,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "River Plate",
"largest_gap_pp": -25.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices River Plate higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -25.66,
"edge_pp": -25.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "River Plate",
"market_prob_pct": 55.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.14,
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.99,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.52,
"edge_pp": 21.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.98,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob_pct": 16.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers River Plate (16.5%).",
"Independiente Rivadavia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.5%, 5/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia, Market \u2192 River Plate, while Independiente Rivadavia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.82,
"closing_odds": 1.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.82,
"entry_odds": 1.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Independiente Rivadavia (swing 5.75 \u2192 4.46 \u2192 5.75) \u2014 net 4.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.75",
"5.62",
"5.50"
],
"display": "5.75 \u2192 4.46 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h 58m",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Independiente Rivadavia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"away_team_id": 473,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/473.webp",
"away_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"away_team_public_id": "26COo6kYlPVeVq",
"away_team_slug": "independ-rivadavia",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493117,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "River Plate",
"home_team_id": 435,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/435.webp",
"home_team_name": "River Plate",
"home_team_public_id": "5p3z8r2P7iMf4h",
"home_team_slug": "river-plate",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 22:15:00",
"public_id": "41kr8rxNiinL1p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio Monumental"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1353,
"best_odd": 5.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": 0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1646,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.5569
},
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"p_final": 0.1938
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.014,
"implied_prob": 0.2785,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1646,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.5569
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.29
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3691,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0947,
"ev": -0.2143,
"implied_prob": 0.5569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1646,
"draw": 0.2785,
"home": 0.5569
},
"model_prob": 0.3003,
"p_final": 0.4622
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.75,
"edge": 0.2063,
"ev": 1.1863,
"implied_prob": 0.1739,
"model_prob": 0.3802
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.2879,
"ev": -0.4895,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.3003
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5671,
"alpha_yes": 0.5164,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0418,
"edge_yes": 0.0408,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1216,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_yes": 0.0406,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0314,
"implied_no": 0.5678,
"implied_yes": 0.4322,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5671,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5164,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.4526
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.5447,
"p_final_yes": 0.4526,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4333,
"alpha_under": 0.5958,
"best_over_odd": 2.45,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": -0.0131,
"edge_under": 0.0131,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0372,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0769,
"ev_under": -0.0167,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"implied_over": 0.4061,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4046,
"implied_under": 0.5939,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5954,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.5954,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6023
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3996,
"p_final_under": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1863,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1145,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011862999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.473,
"draw_prob": 0.3195,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3802,
"over_prob": 0.393,
"total_xg": 2.26,
"under_prob": 0.607,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": 0.1145,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5164,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.473,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5671,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5447
},
"p_final": 0.4526,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0314,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5164,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"p_final": 0.4526
}
},
"edge": 0.0408,
"ev": 0.0406,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4322,
"model_prob": 0.473,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.5954,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4333,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0769,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"p_final": 0.6023,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5958,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.5954,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.6023
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.5939,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493117,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1145,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3802,
"draw": 0.3195,
"home": 0.3003
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"home": "River Plate"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047886,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1145,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 5.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1646,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3802,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.17391304347826086,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+118.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493117,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T22:14:06.483337+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
