AI correctly predicted the Derry City win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
A
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 50.5% | 59.5% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.2% | 21.9% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Galway United | 22.4% | 18.7% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Derry City's win probability at 59.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Derry City win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Derry City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Derry City attacking xG significantly stronger (1.53 vs 1.01)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Derry City higher (59.5% vs model 50.5%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Derry City win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Derry City 50.5% · Draw 27.2% · Galway United 22.4%
- xG · Derry City 1.53 — Galway United 1.01
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.61 · Draw 4.38 · Galway United 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Derry City 59.5% · Draw 21.9% · Galway United 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.61 · Draw 4.38 · Galway United 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Derry City 59.5% · Draw 21.9% · Galway United 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Derry City win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
55/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.61
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Derry City win · Derry City 1–0 Galway United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e2f5704b2d5a279ce90a704abe0561792b01c288d0a3069eb972e694301e22fb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.2237,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2716,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.5046,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.01,
"away_win_prob": 0.2237,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.486,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.514,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2716,
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"fair_odds_away": 4.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.47,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.68,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.68,
"fair_odds_home": 1.98,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.53,
"home_win_prob": 0.5046,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5046,
"over_25_prob": 0.466,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.534
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Derry City or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Derry City"
},
"away_xg": 1.01,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Derry City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0897,
"edge_gap": 0.2332,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5945,
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"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 27.2,
"home": 50.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.61
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Derry City Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.68,
"market_odds": 1.61,
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"overround": 4.5,
"prob_edge": -11.6,
"value_pct": -18.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 63.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 78.3,
"no_prob": 48.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 51.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.01,
"home_expected": 1.53,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Derry City or Draw",
"prob": 77.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Derry City or Galway United",
"prob": 72.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Galway United",
"prob": 49.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Derry City or Draw",
"pick_prob": 77.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 22.4,
"draw_pct": 27.2,
"home_pct": 50.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Derry City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.54,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 46.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.54,
"under_prob": 53.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 19.1,
"implied_prob": 22.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 27.2,
"odds": 4.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Galway United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 18.69,
"draw": 21.85,
"home": 59.45
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:44:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:14:09",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Derry City",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": -8.97,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 50.48
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0606,
"has_edge": false,
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"market_odds": 7.7,
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.53,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
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"over": {
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"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1513,
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"p_final": 0.5143
},
"p_final": 0.481,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0341,
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2078,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1908,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 46.6,
"sort_key": 10321.72,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 53.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
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"model_prob": 0.486,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0201,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0449,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.5,
"text": "+4.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1108,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.1,
"text": "-11.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0449,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 48.6,
"sort_key": 10040.41,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 51.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1178,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.8,
"text": "-11.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Derry City",
"sort_key": 2200.0,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"alert_team": "Galway United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.99,
"hero_label": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 59.5,
"market_team": "Derry City",
"model_prob_pct": 50.5,
"model_team": "Derry City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.99,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.01,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.53,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.53,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.53 \u00b7 Away xG 1.01 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"steam_team": "Galway United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Derry City 1.53 xG vs Galway United 1.01 \u2192 Derry City 50.5%",
"Market: Derry City ~59.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Galway United odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Derry City projects stronger on expected goals (+0.52 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob": 50.46,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob": 59.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.31,
"fair_prob": 27.16,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.68,
"fair_prob": 22.37,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob": 18.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.66,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob": 51.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.87,
"fair_prob": 48.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 59.45,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Galway United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Derry City\u0027s win probability at 59.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 50.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Derry City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 59.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 50.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Derry City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Derry City 1.53 xG vs Galway United 1.01 \u2192 Derry City 50.5%",
"Market: Derry City ~59.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Galway United odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Derry City projects stronger on expected goals (+0.52 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.99,
"hero_label": "Derry City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Galway United odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Galway United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Derry City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Derry City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Galway United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Derry City above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Galway United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Galway United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.3 pp (at 50.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.3,
"max_prob_pct": 50.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Derry City",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Derry City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.99,
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 59.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.31,
"edge_pp": 5.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.16,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.68,
"edge_pp": 3.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 18.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Derry City (59.5%).",
"Galway United odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Derry City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.11,
"closing_odds": 1.61,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.11,
"entry_odds": 1.61,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 96h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Galway United (5.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.12",
"4.94",
"4.75"
],
"display": "5.00 \u2192 3.12 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 96h 1m",
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
5.12,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Galway United",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Galway United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Galway United",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "galway-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Galway United",
"away_team_id": 3851,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3851.webp",
"away_team_name": "Galway United",
"away_team_public_id": "3LCVkE9ArHBtjH",
"away_team_slug": "galway-united",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492772,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Derry City",
"home_team_id": 670,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/670.webp",
"home_team_name": "Derry City",
"home_team_public_id": "37GUkXcWaV0tGq",
"home_team_slug": "derry-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "derry-city",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ireland",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0eWRoJ9iNyd323",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Delhi",
"venue_name": "Brandywell Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 5.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.1869,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1869,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.5945
},
"model_prob": 0.2236,
"p_final": 0.1939
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1869,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.5945
},
"model_prob": 0.2716,
"p_final": 0.2283
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5193,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1869,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.5945
},
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"p_final": 0.5479
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.12,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.1953,
"model_prob": 0.2236
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.38,
"edge": 0.0433,
"ev": 0.1896,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.2716
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.1163,
"ev": -0.1873,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.5048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4929,
"alpha_yes": 0.5421,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0387,
"edge_yes": -0.0387,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0449,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0345,
"ev_yes": -0.1108,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"implied_no": 0.4473,
"implied_yes": 0.5527,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4929,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4653
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5421,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0221,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5548,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5327
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4653,
"p_final_yes": 0.5327,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5156,
"alpha_under": 0.4687,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0966,
"edge_under": 0.0966,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2078,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1513,
"ev_under": 0.1908,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0341,
"implied_over": 0.5626,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5658,
"implied_under": 0.4374,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4342,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5156,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1513,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
"ev": 0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.4342,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.481
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5143,
"p_final_under": 0.481,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.514,
"draw_prob": 0.2716,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5048,
"over_prob": 0.466,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"under_prob": 0.534,
"xg_diff": 0.52
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Derry City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.4452,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.486,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4929,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4653
},
"p_final": 0.4653,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0345,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5421,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0221,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5548,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5327
}
},
"edge": 0.0387,
"ev": 0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.4473,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
"market_prob": 0.4342,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5156,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1513,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"p_final": 0.481,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0341,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
"ev": 0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.4342,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.481
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0966,
"ev": 0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4374,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492772,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1908,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2236,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.5048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Galway United",
"home": "Derry City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089661,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4374,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492772,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T19:32:26.827273+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Giải Ngoại hạng Ireland — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
