AI correctly predicted the Bohemians win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Bohemians attacking xG significantly stronger (2.25 vs 0.99)
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bohemians win 2–0).
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jun 26, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Bohemians 2.25 — St Patrick's Athletic 0.99
-
Jun 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bohemians win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (67%+)
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 56.9%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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"fair_prob_pct": 56.96,
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"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
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},
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"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
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"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_prob_pct": 57.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
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"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
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"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
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"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic odds lengthened \u2191 +12.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, St Patrick\u0027s Athletic has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Bohemians.",
"note": "Drift away from St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Bohemians.",
"However, St Patrick\u0027s Athletic has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Bohemians more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, St Patrick\u0027s Athletic has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/14) supports the current market view on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 19.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 32.8,
"max_prob_pct": 57.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 56.96,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.98,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.83,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 32.73,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bohemians (37.3%).",
"However, St Patrick\u0027s Athletic has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +12.0%, 10/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bohemians, Market \u2192 Bohemians, Recent sharp money \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.76,
"closing_odds": 2.58,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.76,
"entry_odds": 2.58,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (12.0%, 10/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.95 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
"pick_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.4 37.3,0.0 56.0,6.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2191 +12.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2191 +12.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3843,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3843.webp",
"away_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492721,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 3840,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3840.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bohemians",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1ng Ireland",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-26 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": "Dublin",
"venue_name": "Dalymount Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3564,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1831,
"implied_prob": 0.3273,
"model_prob": 0.1886,
"p_final": 0.2779
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2742,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.0882,
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"model_prob": 0.2425,
"p_final": 0.284
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3177,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0623,
"ev": 0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"p_final": 0.4352
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.24,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1229,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.574,
"draw_prob": 0.2425,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.569,
"over_prob": 0.628,
"total_xg": 3.24,
"under_prob": 0.372,
"xg_diff": 1.26
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0623,
"ev": 0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.569,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bohemians"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.574,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.628,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492721,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1229,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1886,
"draw": 0.2425,
"home": 0.569
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"home": "Bohemians"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.083916,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.569,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bohemians",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492721,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-26T19:52:09.144275+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
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Giải Ngoại hạng Ireland — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |