The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Grêmio at 55.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Grêmio Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | 55.1% | 29.3% | +25.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 24.5% | 29.4% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Fluminense | 20.4% | 41.4% | -21.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Grêmio's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.3%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Grêmio; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Grêmio by 25.9 percentage points (29.2% vs model 55.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Grêmio 55.2% · Draw 24.5% · Fluminense 20.3%
- xG · Grêmio 1.95 — Fluminense 1.13
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Grêmio 3.31 · Draw 3.30 · Fluminense 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Grêmio 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Fluminense 41.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Grêmio 3.31 · Draw 3.30 · Fluminense 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Grêmio 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Fluminense 41.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Cautious / Wait
Nhãn lịch sử: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Quyết định lịch sử
Wait
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.31
AI Fair Odds
1.71
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Grêmio 1–1 Fluminense
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 58.4%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"over_25_prob": 0.595,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Fluminense",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Gr\u00eamio",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"confidence": 55.2,
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"confidence": "high",
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
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{
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}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 19,
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"home_score_rate": 85.8,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.13,
"home_expected": 1.95,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
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{
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{
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"prob": 8.7
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{
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"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gr\u00eamio or Draw",
"prob": 79.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gr\u00eamio or Fluminense",
"prob": 75.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fluminense",
"prob": 44.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Gr\u00eamio or Draw",
"pick_prob": 79.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 24.5,
"home_pct": 55.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Gr\u00eamio"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.08,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 59.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.08,
"under_prob": 40.6
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 82.9,
"implied_prob": 30.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Gr\u00eamio Win",
"model_prob": 55.2,
"odds": 3.31
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fluminense",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.39,
"draw": 29.35,
"home": 29.26
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-26 21:29:23",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-26 21:00:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.26,
"gap_pp": 25.92,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 55.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.35,
"gap_pp": -4.87,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.39,
"gap_pp": -21.05,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 20.34
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.3,
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 59.5
},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.26,
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{
"closing": 3.3,
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},
{
"closing": 2.34,
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{
"closing": 2.05,
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{
"closing": 1.84,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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}
},
"home_xg": 1.95,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 3.31,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Gr\u00eamio",
"edge": 25.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 55.2
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.31,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1258,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 12.6,
"text": "+12.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+25.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+82.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"sort_key": 10263.22,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 40.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 40.6,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 59.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"alert_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 25.86,
"hero_label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"market_team": "Fluminense",
"model_prob_pct": 55.1,
"model_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8264,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Gr\u00eamio at 55.2% vs market 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Gr\u00eamio as the stronger side (55.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gr\u00eamio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Gr\u00eamio \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +83% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492305 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +83% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"raw_edge_display": "+25.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3021148036253776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8265,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+82.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "13/13",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 25.86,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 25.86,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.13,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.95,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.95,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.95 \u00b7 Away xG 1.13 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"steam_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8264,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Gr\u00eamio at 55.2% vs market 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Gr\u00eamio as the stronger side (55.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gr\u00eamio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Gr\u00eamio \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +83% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492305 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +83% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"raw_edge_display": "+25.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3021148036253776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8265,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+82.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gr\u00eamio 1.95 xG vs Fluminense 1.13 \u2192 Gr\u00eamio 55.1%",
"Market: Fluminense ~29.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Gr\u00eamio odds \u2191 +23.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gr\u00eamio, but the market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 25.86,
"fair_prob": 55.12,
"label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"market_prob": 29.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 24.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.01,
"fair_prob": 20.38,
"label": "Fluminense",
"market_prob": 41.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 25.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.12,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio",
"market_prob_pct": 29.26,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Gr\u00eamio\u0027s win probability at 55.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.3%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 25.86,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+25.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 25.8,
"model_prob_pct": 55.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+25.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 25.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gr\u00eamio 1.95 xG vs Fluminense 1.13 \u2192 Gr\u00eamio 55.1%",
"Market: Fluminense ~29.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Gr\u00eamio odds \u2191 +23.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gr\u00eamio, but the market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 25.86,
"hero_label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gr\u00eamio odds lengthened \u2191 +23.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.86,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 30.6 pp (at 55.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 30.6,
"max_prob_pct": 55.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"largest_gap_pp": 25.9,
"lead": "The model rates Gr\u00eamio considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 25.86,
"edge_pp": 25.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.12,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"market_prob_pct": 29.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.84,
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -21.01,
"edge_pp": -21.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fluminense",
"market_prob_pct": 41.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fluminense (29.3%).",
"However, Gr\u00eamio has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +23.1%, 13/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gr\u00eamio, Market \u2192 Fluminense, while Gr\u00eamio odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.21,
"closing_odds": 3.31,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.21,
"entry_odds": 3.31,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/13 books lengthened Gr\u00eamio together (23.1% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.31",
"2.96",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.31 \u2192 2.47 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 40m",
"pick_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
3.31,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.31"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Gr\u00eamio odds \u2191 +23.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Gr\u00eamio odds \u2191 +23.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Market moved away from Gr\u00eamio while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Gr\u00eamio",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fluminense",
"away_team_id": 124,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/124.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fluminense",
"away_team_slug": "fluminense",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492305,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Gr\u00eamio",
"home_team_id": 130,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/130.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Gr\u00eamio",
"home_team_slug": "gremio",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie A",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie A",
"league_name_canonical": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-26 21:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Porto Alegre",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3079,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0648,
"ev": -0.1831,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4139,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.2926
},
"model_prob": 0.2034,
"p_final": 0.3491
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2781,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.2935,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4139,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.2926
},
"model_prob": 0.2448,
"p_final": 0.28
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1834,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0475,
"ev": 0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4139,
"draw": 0.2935,
"home": 0.2926
},
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"p_final": 0.3401
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.2239,
"ev": -0.524,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.2034
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0582,
"ev": -0.1922,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2448
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": 0.2497,
"ev": 0.8264,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.5518
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8264,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1258,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8264,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Gr\u00eamio at 55.2% vs market 29.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Gr\u00eamio as the stronger side (55.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 25.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gr\u00eamio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Gr\u00eamio \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +83% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492305 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gr\u00eamio, but the model still strongly favours Gr\u00eamio.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +83% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"raw_edge_display": "+25.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3021148036253776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8265,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+82.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.594,
"draw_prob": 0.2448,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5518,
"over_prob": 0.595,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"under_prob": 0.406,
"xg_diff": 0.82
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.31,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0475,
"ev": 0.1258,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gr\u00eamio"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.594,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492305,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1258,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2034,
"draw": 0.2448,
"home": 0.5518
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fluminense",
"home": "Gr\u00eamio"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.0833,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gr\u00eamio",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1258,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5518,
"raw_edge_display": "+25.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3021148036253776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8265,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+82.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492305,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-26T21:29:25.821827+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Grêmio & Fluminense!
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Đăng ký ngay
Serie A Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Grêmio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
