AI correctly predicted the Chicago Fire win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC | 31.8% | 43.8% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.9% | 23.9% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Chicago Fire | 40.3% | 32.4% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Charlotte FC's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.8%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Chicago Fire win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Charlotte FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chicago Fire higher (52.3% vs model 40.3%, 12.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chicago Fire win 0–1).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Charlotte FC 31.8% · Draw 27.9% · Chicago Fire 40.3%
- xG · Charlotte FC 1.33 — Chicago Fire 1.52
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Charlotte FC 2.21 · Draw 4.05 · Chicago Fire 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Charlotte FC 43.8% · Draw 23.9% · Chicago Fire 32.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Charlotte FC 2.21 · Draw 4.05 · Chicago Fire 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Charlotte FC 43.8% · Draw 23.9% · Chicago Fire 32.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chicago Fire win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.21
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chicago Fire win · Charlotte FC 0–1 Chicago Fire
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5cf257e7029057b0225dbce1bcba7dc9024a5b7ff987d7714b76a331b03eac3e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.52,
"away_win_prob": 0.403,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.41,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.59,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2794,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.48,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.58,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.15,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3176,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.542,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.458
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Charlotte FC or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Charlotte FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.52,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chicago Fire",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0797,
"edge_gap": 0.0858,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3235,
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.3,
"draw": 27.9,
"home": 31.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.99
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.99,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chicago Fire Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.09,
"market_odds": 2.99,
"model_odds": 2.48,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 6.9,
"value_pct": 20.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 78.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 41.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 59.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 59.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.52,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Charlotte FC or Draw",
"prob": 59.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Charlotte FC or Chicago Fire",
"prob": 72.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chicago Fire",
"prob": 68.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Charlotte FC or Chicago Fire",
"pick_prob": 72.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.3,
"draw_pct": 27.9,
"home_pct": 31.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Chicago Fire"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.85,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 54.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.85,
"under_prob": 45.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.6,
"implied_prob": 33.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Chicago Fire Win",
"model_prob": 40.3,
"odds": 2.99
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chicago Fire",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.35,
"draw": 23.88,
"home": 43.77
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 23:29:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 23:01:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Charlotte FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.77,
"gap_pp": -12.02,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.88,
"gap_pp": 4.05,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.93
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.35,
"gap_pp": 7.97,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.74,
"gap_pp": -12.54,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 54.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.26,
"gap_pp": 12.54,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 45.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.77,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.05,
"early": 4.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.88,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.35,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.74,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.26,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.6,
"ev": 0.053,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.117,
"model_prob_pct": 11.7,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 3.1,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Chicago Fire",
"edge": 8.1,
"ev": 25.0,
"probability": 40.3
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0426,
"edge_pp": 4.3,
"market_prob": 0.3333,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4695,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0585,
"ev": -0.1486,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6081
},
"p_final": 0.3759,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2824,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0525,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3415,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0426,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3759
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2195,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3374,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 33.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3374,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 54.2,
"sort_key": 10453.66,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 45.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3687,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"edge": 0.03,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.3286,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3687,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0185,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"p_final": 0.3586
},
"p_final": 0.3586,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1644,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0185,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.507,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.6714,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"p_final": 0.6301
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.23,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.0,
"text": "+23.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.174,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.4,
"text": "-17.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.23,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 41.0,
"sort_key": 10207.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 59.0
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.99,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0617,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0617,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chicago Fire",
"sort_key": 10055.53,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"alert_team": "Charlotte FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.01,
"hero_label": "Charlotte FC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.4,
"market_team": "Charlotte FC",
"model_prob_pct": 40.3,
"model_team": "Chicago Fire",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3374,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3374,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Fire at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Fire as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Fire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0617,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33444816053511706,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.01,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"steam_team": "Charlotte FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3374,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3374,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Fire at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Fire as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Fire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0617,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33444816053511706,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Charlotte FC 1.33 xG vs Chicago Fire 1.52 \u2192 Chicago Fire 40.3%",
"Market: Charlotte FC ~32.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Charlotte FC odds \u2191 +7.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chicago Fire with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.01,
"fair_prob": 31.76,
"label": "Charlotte FC",
"market_prob": 43.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob": 27.94,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.95,
"fair_prob": 40.3,
"label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob": 32.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.34,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.34,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.36,
"fair_prob": 59.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.36,
"fair_prob": 41.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.76,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Charlotte FC",
"market_prob_pct": 43.77,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Charlotte FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Charlotte FC\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.8%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chicago Fire",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Chicago Fire \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Charlotte FC 1.33 xG vs Chicago Fire 1.52 \u2192 Chicago Fire 40.3%",
"Market: Charlotte FC ~32.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Charlotte FC odds \u2191 +7.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chicago Fire with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.01,
"hero_label": "Charlotte FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Charlotte FC odds lengthened \u2191 +7.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Charlotte FC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Charlotte FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Charlotte FC than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Charlotte FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Charlotte FC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Charlotte FC (\u2191 +7.0%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.5 pp (at 40.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.5,
"max_prob_pct": 40.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Charlotte FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Charlotte FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.01,
"edge_pp": -12.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.76,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Charlotte FC",
"market_prob_pct": 43.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.06,
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.95,
"edge_pp": 7.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob_pct": 32.35,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Charlotte FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Charlotte FC (32.4%).",
"Charlotte FC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.0%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chicago Fire, Market \u2192 Charlotte FC, while Charlotte FC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.25,
"closing_odds": 2.21,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.25,
"entry_odds": 2.21,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 134h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Charlotte FC (7.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.30",
"2.22",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.31 \u2192 2.06 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 134h 1m",
"pick_team": "Charlotte FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.06"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.21,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Charlotte FC",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Charlotte FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Charlotte FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Charlotte FC",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Charlotte FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chicago-fire",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chicago Fire",
"away_team_id": 1607,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1607.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chicago Fire",
"away_team_public_id": "1tuqWAfwjitXhS",
"away_team_slug": "chicago-fire",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490499,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Charlotte FC",
"home_team_id": 18310,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18310.webp",
"home_team_name": "Charlotte FC",
"home_team_public_id": "5aJq7s8ZcG7De2",
"home_team_slug": "charlotte",
"ht.home_team_slug": "charlotte",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 23:30:00",
"public_id": "20pSZOOp8dmFBX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Charlotte FC",
"venue_name": "Bank of America Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3962,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3235,
"draw": 0.2388,
"home": 0.4377
},
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"p_final": 0.3551
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1879,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0019,
"implied_prob": 0.2388,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3235,
"draw": 0.2388,
"home": 0.4377
},
"model_prob": 0.2793,
"p_final": 0.2464
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3689,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0443,
"ev": -0.1307,
"implied_prob": 0.4377,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3235,
"draw": 0.2388,
"home": 0.4377
},
"model_prob": 0.3175,
"p_final": 0.3933
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": 0.0688,
"ev": 0.2056,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.4032
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": 0.1313,
"implied_prob": 0.2469,
"model_prob": 0.2793
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": -0.135,
"ev": -0.2984,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3175
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3687,
"alpha_yes": 0.507,
"best_no_odd": 3.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0836,
"edge_yes": -0.0836,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.23,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0185,
"ev_yes": -0.174,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"implied_no": 0.3264,
"implied_yes": 0.6736,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3687,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0185,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"p_final": 0.3586
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.507,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.6714,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"p_final": 0.6301
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3586,
"p_final_yes": 0.6301,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4695,
"alpha_under": 0.3415,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.92,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.8,
"edge_over": -0.1234,
"edge_under": 0.1234,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2195,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1486,
"ev_under": 0.3374,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0525,
"implied_over": 0.6654,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6667,
"implied_under": 0.3346,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3333,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4695,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0585,
"ev": -0.1486,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6081
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3415,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0426,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3759
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6081,
"p_final_under": 0.3759,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3374,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3374,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3374,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3374,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3374,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Fire at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Fire as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Fire",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chicago Fire).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0617,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33444816053511706,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.19"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.19
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.59,
"draw_prob": 0.2793,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4032,
"over_prob": 0.542,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"under_prob": 0.458,
"xg_diff": 0.19
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.99,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Chicago Fire"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3687,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"edge": 0.03,
"market_prob": 0.3286,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3687,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0185,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"p_final": 0.3586
},
"p_final": 0.3586,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0185,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.507,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.6714,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"p_final": 0.6301
}
},
"edge": 0.0836,
"ev": 0.23,
"implied_prob": 0.3264,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0426,
"market_prob": 0.3333,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4695,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0585,
"ev": -0.1486,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6081
},
"p_final": 0.3759,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0525,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3415,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0426,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3759
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1234,
"ev": 0.3374,
"implied_prob": 0.3346,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490499,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3374,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4032,
"draw": 0.2793,
"home": 0.3175
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.23,
"implied_prob": 0.3264,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.23,
"implied_prob": 0.3264,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chicago Fire",
"home": "Charlotte FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.146803,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3374,
"implied_prob": 0.3346,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0617,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3235,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4032,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33444816053511706,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490499,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T23:29:29.097758+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Charlotte FC & Chicago Fire!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Major League Soccer — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | San Diego | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56 | 23 | +33 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 31 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 12 | LA Galaxy | 27 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 18 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 49 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 26 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 31 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 42 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 26 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 26 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 30 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 29 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | LA Galaxy | 27 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 33 |
