The model missed the final outcome (Orlando City win 1–0).
The model had projected San Diego at 47.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 San Diego Orlando City ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-0 ✖ Không đúng
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Orlando City win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Orlando City 1.33 — San Diego 1.83
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Orlando City win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Orlando City win · Orlando City 1–0 San Diego
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "295013b8ffc7184504e3f441920ae84c016c3f9de71fb3f9b1fecfb68faec804",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.83,
"away_win_prob": 0.4788,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.369,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.631,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2552,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.92,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.76,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.266,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.612,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.388
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or San Diego",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : San Diego",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "San Diego"
},
"away_xg": 1.83,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "San Diego",
"confidence": 47.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : San Diego",
"edge": 0.1506,
"edge_gap": 0.2126,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 47.9,
"draw": 25.5,
"home": 26.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "San Diego"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"odd": 3.15
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 3.05
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 3.05
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.88
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.88
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.82
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 2.8
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.77
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.15,
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"display_market": "San Diego Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.05,
"market_odds": 2.86,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 6.7,
"prob_edge": 16.1,
"value_pct": 50.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 84.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 36.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 63.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.83,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Orlando City or Draw",
"prob": 52.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Orlando City or San Diego",
"prob": 74.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or San Diego",
"prob": 73.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Orlando City or San Diego",
"pick_prob": 74.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 47.9,
"draw_pct": 25.5,
"home_pct": 26.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "San Diego"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.16,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 61.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.16,
"under_prob": 38.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"edge": 50.9,
"implied_prob": 31.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "San Diego Win",
"model_prob": 47.9,
"odds": 3.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.5,
"ev": -0.0472,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.25,
"market_prob": 0.1081,
"market_prob_pct": 10.8,
"model_prob": 0.103,
"model_prob_pct": 10.3,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
"best_odds": 3.15,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Away San Diego",
"edge": 16.1,
"ev": 50.7,
"probability": 47.9
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0761,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.6,
"text": "+7.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0761,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.6,
"text": "+7.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3451,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "San Diego",
"sort_key": 10218.49,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 61.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 38.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 36.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"alert_team": "Orlando City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "San Diego",
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"model_team": "San Diego",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5079,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Diego at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Diego as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Diego",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side San Diego \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490440 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3451,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 35.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.5"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.5
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "11/11",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.83,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 36.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.83,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.83 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +36%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"steam_team": "Orlando City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5079,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Diego at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Diego as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Diego",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side San Diego \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490440 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3451,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 35.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.5"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.5
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando City 1.33 xG vs San Diego 1.83 \u2192 San Diego 47.9%",
"Market Drift: Orlando City odds \u2191 +17.8%"
],
"one_liner": "San Diego projects stronger on expected goals (+0.50 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.6,
"label": "Orlando City",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 25.52,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 47.88,
"label": "San Diego",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 61.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "San Diego",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.8,
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "San Diego \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando City 1.33 xG vs San Diego 1.83 \u2192 San Diego 47.9%",
"Market Drift: Orlando City odds \u2191 +17.8%"
],
"one_liner": "San Diego projects stronger on expected goals (+0.50 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Orlando City odds lengthened \u2191 +17.8%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.3 pp (at 47.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.3,
"max_prob_pct": 47.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Orlando City",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.52,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Diego",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans San Diego (47.9%).",
"However, Orlando City has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.8%, 11/11) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"San Diego \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "11/11",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"11/11 books lengthened Orlando City together (17.8% drift, score 63) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.08",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.32 \u2192 1.89 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 59m",
"pick_team": "Orlando City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Orlando City odds \u2191 +17.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Orlando City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Orlando City odds \u2191 +17.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Orlando City",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/11",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Orlando City",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "Orlando City",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Diego",
"away_team_id": 25484,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25484.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Diego",
"away_team_public_id": "2uFcyiKfE5Y0fA",
"away_team_slug": "san-diego",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490440,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Orlando City",
"home_team_id": 1598,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1598.webp",
"home_team_name": "Orlando City",
"home_team_public_id": "1ilD1lAswqpafC",
"home_team_slug": "orlando-city-sc",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-05 23:30:00",
"public_id": "3Mv6K0IbPO4sXB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Orlando",
"venue_name": "Exploria Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3505,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3313,
"draw": 0.2357,
"home": 0.433
},
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"p_final": 0.383
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2912,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.2357,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3313,
"draw": 0.2357,
"home": 0.433
},
"model_prob": 0.2552,
"p_final": 0.2414
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0563,
"ev": -0.1901,
"implied_prob": 0.433,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3313,
"draw": 0.2357,
"home": 0.433
},
"model_prob": 0.2661,
"p_final": 0.3767
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.1612,
"ev": 0.5079,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.4787
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": 0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"model_prob": 0.2552
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.165,
"ev": -0.3827,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.2661
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.16,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5079,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0761,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5079,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Diego at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Diego as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Diego",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side San Diego \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +51% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490440 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Diego).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Outlier price +51% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3451,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 35.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.5"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.5
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.631,
"draw_prob": 0.2552,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4787,
"over_prob": 0.612,
"total_xg": 3.16,
"under_prob": 0.388,
"xg_diff": 0.5
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Diego"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1490440,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0761,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4787,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.2661
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Diego",
"home": "Orlando City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.029143,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Diego",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0761,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4787,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3451,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490440,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T20:02:35.554301+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
Major League Soccer — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | San Diego | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56 | 23 | +33 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 31 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 12 | LA Galaxy | 27 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 18 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 49 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 26 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 31 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 42 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 26 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 26 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 30 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 29 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | LA Galaxy | 27 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 33 |
