The model missed the final outcome (Libertad Asuncion win 0–1).
The model had projected Olimpia at 58.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Olimpia Asunción Libertad Asuncion ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia | 58.2% | 48.0% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.1% | 27.6% | -4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Libertad Asuncion | 18.7% | 24.4% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Olimpia's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 48.0%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Libertad Asuncion win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Olimpia.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Olimpia by 10.2 percentage points (48.0% vs model 58.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:22 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Olimpia 58.2% · Draw 23.1% · Libertad Asuncion 18.7%
- xG · Olimpia 2.29 — Libertad Asuncion 1.12
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia 1.95 · Draw 3.53 · Libertad Asuncion 3.89
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia 48.7% · Draw 26.9% · Libertad Asuncion 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia 1.98 · Draw 3.45 · Libertad Asuncion 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia 48.0% · Draw 27.6% · Libertad Asuncion 24.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Libertad Asuncion win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
49/100
Betting Confidence
41/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.98
AI Fair Odds
1.41
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Libertad Asuncion win · Olimpia 0–1 Libertad Asuncion
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 71.0%
- Historical Bucket: 70–75% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c094660756d1c544d413eab00633538e80e0d91a6e9a75f83a3471cc4021ddf5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1867,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2309,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.5824,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.12,
"away_win_prob": 0.1867,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.384,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.617,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 5.36,
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"home_predicted_xg": 2.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.5824,
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"over_25_prob": 0.662,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.338
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.12,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.98
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": 7.6,
"value_pct": 15.1,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 67.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 89.9,
"no_prob": 38.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 61.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.12,
"home_expected": 2.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n or Draw",
"prob": 81.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n or Libertad Asuncion",
"prob": 76.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Libertad Asuncion",
"prob": 41.8
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.7,
"draw_pct": 23.1,
"home_pct": 58.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.41,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 66.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.41,
"under_prob": 33.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.2,
"implied_prob": 50.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Win",
"model_prob": 58.2,
"odds": 1.98
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.39,
"draw": 27.57,
"home": 48.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-26 18:59:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-26 18:30:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.34,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.04,
"gap_pp": 10.16,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 58.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.57,
"gap_pp": -4.45,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.39,
"gap_pp": -5.71,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.7,
"gap_pp": 17.5,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.3,
"gap_pp": -17.5,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_closing_pct": 48.04,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.65,
"implied_early_pct": 48.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.67,
"implied_early_pct": 26.9,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.9,
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"implied_closing_pct": 24.39,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.02,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.97,
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},
{
"closing": 1.87,
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"implied_delta_pp": 2.34,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
}
},
"home_xg": 2.29,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Dafabet",
"best_odds": 2.05,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"edge": 9.4,
"ev": 28.1,
"probability": 58.2
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0535,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.3,
"text": "+5.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0535,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 5.3,
"text": "+5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.582,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"sort_key": 10198.15,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 66.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 33.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 38.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 61.7
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"alert_team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.2,
"hero_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"market_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"model_prob_pct": 58.2,
"model_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1524,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n at 58.2% vs market 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n as the stronger side (58.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.98 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1489272 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.98 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0535,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.582,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 70%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.38461538461538464,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.2,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.29,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.29,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +70%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"steam_team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1524,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n at 58.2% vs market 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n as the stronger side (58.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.98 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1489272 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.98 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0535,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.582,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 70%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n 2.29 xG vs Libertad Asuncion 1.12 \u2192 Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n 58.2%",
"Market: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n ~48.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Libertad Asuncion odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n projects stronger on expected goals (+1.17 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.2,
"fair_prob": 58.24,
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 48.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.48,
"fair_prob": 23.09,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.72,
"fair_prob": 18.67,
"label": "Libertad Asuncion",
"market_prob": 24.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 66.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 33.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 61.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 48.04,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Libertad Asuncion"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n\u0027s win probability at 58.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 48.0%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.2,
"model_prob_pct": 58.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n 2.29 xG vs Libertad Asuncion 1.12 \u2192 Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n 58.2%",
"Market: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n ~48.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Libertad Asuncion odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n projects stronger on expected goals (+1.17 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.2,
"hero_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Libertad Asuncion odds lengthened \u2191 +2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Libertad Asuncion has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n.",
"However, Libertad Asuncion has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Libertad Asuncion has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.2 pp (at 58.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 35.2,
"max_prob_pct": 58.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.2,
"lead": "The model rates Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.2,
"edge_pp": 10.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 48.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.48,
"edge_pp": -4.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.72,
"edge_pp": -5.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Libertad Asuncion",
"market_prob_pct": 24.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n (48.0%).",
"Libertad Asuncion odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.9%, 5/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.51,
"closing_odds": 1.98,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.51,
"entry_odds": 1.98,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Libertad Asuncion (swing 3.89 \u2192 3.02 \u2192 3.60) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.70",
"3.50"
],
"display": "3.89 \u2192 3.02 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 127h 42m",
"pick_team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.89"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.9,
3.89,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.4 56.0,13.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Libertad Asuncion",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Libertad Asuncion",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Libertad Asuncion",
"away_team_id": 1179,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1179.webp",
"away_team_name": "Libertad Asuncion",
"away_team_slug": "libertad-asuncion",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1489272,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"home_team_id": 1182,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1182.webp",
"home_team_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Olimpia",
"home_team_slug": "olimpia",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-26 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2743,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2439,
"draw": 0.2757,
"home": 0.4804
},
"model_prob": 0.1868,
"p_final": 0.2282
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.28,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.0918,
"implied_prob": 0.2757,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2439,
"draw": 0.2757,
"home": 0.4804
},
"model_prob": 0.2312,
"p_final": 0.2632
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5085,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2439,
"draw": 0.2757,
"home": 0.4804
},
"model_prob": 0.582,
"p_final": 0.5321
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.2716,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.1868
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.2024,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2312
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.077,
"ev": 0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.5051,
"model_prob": 0.582
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.41,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1524,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0535,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0535,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1524,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 43,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n at 58.2% vs market 48.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n as the stronger side (58.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.98 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1489272 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.98 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "43 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n Asunci\u00f3n).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
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},
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"consensus_ev_display": "+5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.6,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.617,
"draw_prob": 0.2312,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.582,
"over_prob": 0.662,
"total_xg": 3.41,
"under_prob": 0.338,
"xg_diff": 1.17
},
"type": "strong_signal",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0517,
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"implied_prob": 0.4804,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.582,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.617,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"model_prob": 0.662,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1489272,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0535,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2312,
"home": 0.582
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Libertad Asuncion",
"home": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"slot": "primary",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+5.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.582,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1489272,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-26T20:22:52.491496+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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División Profesional – Clausura — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Club 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Club 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guarani | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
